The Best Week of 2007 For My Portfolio Positions Me Well For Some Big Gains If This Market Continues To Rally
September 22, 2007 | Leave a Comment
There is no doubt that this has been one of the best weeks of 2007. But what has made this week so much better compared to other good weeks this year is that the stock market is finally acting, in what I would call, a correction fashion according to TA 101. Stocks that are bouncing off the 50 day moving average or breaking out of sound basing patterns are working and continue to rack up gains, instead of just acting hit or miss with the few winners giving us only slightly impressive gains. The stocks that are moving now are moving with very strong momentum and that momentum is helping me make gains that I have been accustomed to. There is no denying that the market from May 2006-July was an odd one with many hits and misses for my style. But now things are back to acting normally. This just goes to prove that you should never give up on a proven sound strategy. I am sure many people got frustrated by this market, despite some stocks making big gains.
Typically, in bull markets, I can find many top performing stocks that race up 100-500% before they finally put in a top. However, recently, with the low VIX, it has become very difficult to find strong stocks that not only perform well but do so without cutting key support levels. It really has been a good market. However, the gains simply were not there like they used to be. That, thankfully, appears to be changing as once again I am finding many new longs and am ALREADY nearly fully invested again. Some would say that could be contrarian. But the problem with that is that I am long a ton of new longs that appear to have a lot of room to run. To go along with that the current longs that I was long before the rally got back underway on August 16 have setup all new big bases for more continued big gains to come. Just go to the end of my weekly post to see how many BIG WINNERS I continue to hold from the previous bullish uptrend. Though the holdings are much smaller than they were, the fact is is that I am still long some nice winners while many are completely back on the sidelines wondering how they have missed another rally.
Stocks Pullback On Lighter Volume, Consolidating Recent Gains
September 21, 2007 | Leave a Comment
There is no market commentary tonight as I had a lot of personal matters to attend to. Luckily, the market did not do much today and pulled back on low volume consolidating the recent gains that we have seen this week. All of my longs and shorts continue to act very well and there were no complete sells or covers tonight, indicating that I am in the right stocks in the right market environment.
Make sure you go over all the longs and the analysis. Somehow, I managed, to get everything done there. Sometime, tomorrow, I would like to go back and updated the longs I selected last Thursday. However, I have said this once already and have failed then so we will see how this goes. Aloha and I will see you in the chat room.
Russell 2000 and Leading Stocks Lead Stocks Higher As Market Builds On Yesterday’s Gains On Higher Volume
September 20, 2007 | Leave a Comment
Today is a victory in my book as all the indexes managed to hang on to positive gains and close green across the board. The clearly most positive development behind the higher prices today, after such a strong move yesterday, was that volume expanded on both the NYSE and on the Nasdaq. And for the first time in a month volume was above the 50 day volume average on the nasdaq. The NYSE still lagged the 50 day volume average. Had prices fallen today and volume picked up, that might have been bearish. But the fact that the indexes were able to hold on to today’s gains, especially after some mid-day selling, was definitely positive.
The best action today came in the form of my personal portfolio. I did better today than even yesterday and can say that out of all of my longs that I am currently holding all of them look very good and all of them are very green. To go along with all my nice holdings, their is the Russell 2000 index just sitting there confirming the strength in this market by its daily price action since August 1st. Overall, the indexes are looking very good, despite the low volume, and the individual charts are looking very good. And proper breakouts from sound patterns are working again! When great chart patterns are being rewarded to even a greater degree than normal, you must take advantage. So until this rally fails, continue to enjoy the charts.
Free Commentary
September 19, 2007 | Leave a Comment
Bronze Commentary
September 19, 2007 | Leave a Comment
Powerful Rally Proves Once Again That Following The Trend Of The General Market Is The Best Way To Make Big Money In The Stock Market
September 19, 2007 | Leave a Comment
Today was, by far, one of the best day I have personally seen in the stock market in around four years. The best thing about it, once again, was that I and many who follow the CANSLIM style were well positioned for this rally. Therefore, today was one of the best days I have had, despite my account not being fully invested. I am still holding some cash waiting for the new leaders to show up, if this market continues to rally.
Everyone knows now that the Fed cut the Fed Fund rate to 4.75 and cut the discount to 5.25. This cut was to help out the economy to make sure that it does not feel the negative pressures from the housing market. The cut also sent the yield curve into a very positive slope. However, going into the meeting everyone and their brother’s mothers were trying to guess how much he was going to cut and how to play it. The great thing about this is that this foolish game of predictions and wild-guesses has proven once again that by following the general trend of the market–which has been up since August 16 and confirmed by an August 29 follow through–and taking your signal in leading stocks, you don’t have to know what he was going to do.
The charts were signaling that we were going higher, so the chances were probably pretty high that no matter what the Fed said, we were going to rally. Many charts are setting up or have broken out of very sound and quiet bases. The low volume rally in the indexes has created some nice bases in some strong stocks. Nothing is for sure to the degree of how long a rally will last. But the fact that so many charts look so strong indicate that more gains should come from today’s market.
Stocks Drift Lower On Lower Volume As Wall Street Awaits The Moment I Could Care Less About
September 18, 2007 | Leave a Comment
All eyes are focused on one thing right now and I don’t believe I have to tell you what that is as I am sure we have all had this news event crammed down our throats 24/7 the past few market sessions. However, it is what it is and the Fed meeting tomorrow is “the one” (aren’t they all?) everyone has been waiting for. This decision is supposed to somehow be market moving and important. But the contrarian in me seems to think that no matter what they say, seriously, the market will not give a crap.
Anyways, the fact that so many people are focused on this event draws me to another question. Why does everyone care so much? Seriously, this doesn’t effect our trading one bit. Somewhere along the way, I have a feeling, some people have been taught to watch the Fed way too closely. Yes, it is important what they say. However, unless you are one of those daytraders who “flip” stocks, I am not sure why we should care what he says. Whatever Ben say simply can not have any meaningful impact on our trading. Let’s say the market sellsoff. Does that mean that I am going to need to sell all my longs. What if the market rallies? Does that mean that I need to jump in and buy something?
The fact that so many are worried about this decision is bullish, in my opinion, no matter how it works out. So many traders expect a selloff–if you don’t believe me, check today’s put/call ratio close at 1.08 for proof–that I doubt we will get what everyone is looking for. However, this rally has come on nothing but low volume, so it is impossible to completely ignore that argument. All great traders know that the best rallies have a lot of volume to them. This rally is completely absent of accumulation, despite some stocks showing great accumulation.
Stocks Ticked Higher Ending A Very Quiet Yet Bullish Week For Stocks; Here Comes The Fed
September 16, 2007 | Leave a Comment
Another excellent and bullish intraday reversal followed what was a very weak opening. This continues a pattern in the stock market since the August 16 lows, where a lower gap before the opening bell is bought by investors and bid higher almost all day long. Ugly beginnings of the trading day that end like this are a sign of a healthy market, not a bearish market. Even though volume remains completely absent, the price action speaks for itself as it is the final TRUTH in the stock market–not your opinions.
The light volume this week was blamed on Rosh Hashana but somehow I doubt Rosh Hash had anything to do with the low volume this week as that has been all that we have seen the past month. Despite the low volume, the Dow led the way, jumping 2.5% for the week. The NYSE composite ramped up 2%. The S&P 500 climbed 2.1% and the Nasdaq 1.4%.
This low volume rally has left MANY people on the sidelines scratching their head as they watch new breakout move higher and higher and watch leading stocks continue to hit all-time highs. This goes back to the same argument I have been making since I can remember. The trend is your friend. Rather on low volume or high volume, if you get stocks breaking out of sound bases on high volume, you need to just ignore the low volume overall in the market and take your signals. By passing on your signals, I AM SURE, a lot of you have missed out on some big gains.
Big-Cap And Leading Stocks Lead The Market Higher As The Jewish New Year Holiday Rosh Hashana Keeps Volume Light
September 14, 2007 | Leave a Comment
A Boring Day Ends With The Nasdaq Right Back Where It Started; Stocks Closed Mixed On Mixed Trade
September 13, 2007 | Leave a Comment
A volatile intraday session ended with stocks pretty much flat on the day. The only disappointment in today’s session came when the Nasdaq gave up its gains late in the day, closing near the lows and right where it started. The problem with that action is that today’s move down by .21% is enough to technically count today as a distribution day. That makes it the third day since the rally started that the Nassy has sold off on higher volume.
The good news about the selling today was that it was very weak and volume continues to remain well below the 50 day volume average. That indicates that while the big money is not buying stocks they are not selling stocks either. So there really is not much to get your panties in an uproar about.
The other good sign is that my personal portfolio did well today and I believe the IBD 100 did well because the 85-85 index had a good day. So when you have leading stocks and stocks that you are holding that either move up or hold tight during a distribution day it is safe to say that the selling was under control. But three distribution days in six sessions is something to be concerned about, especially when your best looking stocks don’t look as great as they used to.
