The Selling Continues With Stock Market Indexes Closing Near Their LOD; Charts Can Definitely Make A Difference!
December 15, 2007 | 1 Comment
Friday’s selling came on lower volume but one thing was very clear by the end of the day. The bulls have absolutely no juice and if a gigantic multi-Fed driven liquid injection in the market can’t keep the market up, I am not sure what people think will keep it up. Everyone knows that I only follow the charts to make my trades. And you better believe that is the truth. But sometimes you can look at the macro economy and combine what you see with charts to give you even more conviction than you normally would have with just the charts.
Recently it has become clear that the individual charts that have been showing up in my long scans are deteriorating to the point where there are no perfect charts, only a few green charts, and those that are looking strong are all in defensive industries. When I combine what I see in the long scans to what I see in the short scans, I can see that the numbers on the short scans are growing and growing and the ugliness of the charts are getting pretty nasty. This can be seen on the forums by looking in the area where I post all of my sells. If you notice a lot of stocks are showing up on the ‘nasty’ list.
These charts combined with the downtrends in all the indexes since the November top makes it pretty clear that we are going to be in a rough spot for quite a while. Now, I know some of you do not want to believe that and think that I am crazy. But I am telling you that I have been through enough good and bad and sideways market to have seen it all in the charts. I have also studied the market indexes in TCNet going back to the early 1900’s on the DJIA. So I have learned what bull markets look like, bear markets look like, consolidating markets look like, and even what it looks like when a bottom or top is forming.
Late-Day Rally Sends Indexes Towards Their Intraday Highs By The Close; Lower Volume Dampens The Rally’s Spirit
December 13, 2007 | Leave a Comment
Stocks had another volatile intraday session on Thursday. However, this one was a bit less tight in the intraday range and it had a positive tone to it, unlike the past three market sessions which saw weakness at the end of the day. The good news for the bulls in todays session is that despite taking out the lows in some indexes today the bears couldn’t take the whole market down and by the end of the day everything was closing near the HOD. The only problem behind today’s move was that volume fell as the market rallied. There was no accumulation by institutions. There was only short covering and retail buying.
Overall, today really did not change the situation that exist in the market which is a market that is plagued by nothing but uncertainty. Like I referenced yesterday I have never seen a market rally with so much uncertainty out there. It is the one thing the market hates and yet that is what we have now so going long in bulk is just not the play I can recommend right now despite knowing a lot of individuals who want to be bullish.
I Am Having A Great Day Today…But What If I Wouldn’t Have….
December 13, 2007 | Leave a Comment
Remember, ASYS was NEVER a big position. In fact it was very minor, except for my one day order entry mistake, and until I saw someone just now mention it in a chat room I wouldn’t have even known it was destroyed by looking at the total returns in my accounts today. This is an important lesson on making sure that you ALWAYS trade your plan and that you never deviate away from it, even when you are feeling horrible over a stupid mistake.
[2007.12.13 09:12:29] MauiTrader: OMG you know why you cut your losses?
[2007.12.13 09:12:33] MauiTrader: ASYS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
[2007.12.13 09:12:36] MauiTrader: the mistake i made
[2007.12.13 09:12:40] MauiTrader: had i NOT fixed it immediately
[2007.12.13 09:12:44] MauiTrader: would have cost me everything
[2007.12.13 09:12:51] MauiTrader: i would be on 4 to 1 margin broke!!!!
[2007.12.13 09:13:01] MauiTrader: or even 21 to 1 would have been badly hurt
[2007.12.13 09:13:06] MauiTrader: wow
[2007.12.13 09:13:08] MauiTrader: amazing
[2007.12.13 09:13:18] MauiTrader: i ams till long ASYS from
[2007.12.13 09:13:41] MauiTrader: August
[2007.12.13 09:13:45] MauiTrader: i think or July
[2007.12.13 09:13:46] MauiTrader: not sure
[2007.12.13 09:14:01] Mahket: so much for this little rally lasting
[2007.12.13 09:14:04] Mahket: poof
[2007.12.13 09:14:06] MauiTrader: August
[2007.12.13 09:14:11] MauiTrader: i went long in August
[2007.12.13 09:14:19] MauiTrader: the next day i sold 75% due to gap down
[2007.12.13 09:14:27] MauiTrader: but held 25% due to it holding 50 dma
[2007.12.13 09:14:35] MauiTrader: i bought more in early Dec
[2007.12.13 09:14:42] MauiTrader: then again when i made my mistake
[2007.12.13 09:14:48] MauiTrader: then i sold all of the last buy
[2007.12.13 09:15:01] MauiTrader: and over half of the early Dec buy on that nasty 12/11 day
[2007.12.13 09:15:04] MauiTrader: but had I not
[2007.12.13 09:15:16] MauiTrader: and i seen it on 12/12 and noticed it held 50 dma
[2007.12.13 09:15:19] MauiTrader: and would have hoped
[2007.12.13 09:15:26] MauiTrader: since it held and bop went green again
[2007.12.13 09:15:30] MauiTrader: maybe i dont sell any
[2007.12.13 09:15:32] MauiTrader: then today
[2007.12.13 09:15:41] MauiTrader: i would have had one of the worst days of my life
[2007.12.13 09:15:45] MauiTrader: had i stuck with my mistake
[2007.12.13 09:15:49] MauiTrader: instead i fixed it
[2007.12.13 09:15:51] MauiTrader: and walla
[2007.12.13 09:15:54] MauiTrader: i saved my ass
[2007.12.13 09:15:59] MauiTrader: THIS IS WHY YOU CUT LOSSES ALL THE TIME
[2007.12.13 09:16:04] Troy: I tried to print a posting in the forum and some of the word on the printed version run off the page. Is there a way to get a printer friendly version of the postings?
[2007.12.13 09:16:07] MauiTrader: ESPECIALLY IN ACCIDENTLE BIG POSITIONS
[2007.12.13 09:16:20] MauiTrader: ask nictech in a PM
[2007.12.13 09:16:26] MauiTrader: send nictech a message
[2007.12.13 09:16:29] MauiTrader: he is the tech guy
[2007.12.13 09:16:36] MauiTrader: doesn’t anyone find that amazing
[2007.12.13 09:16:44] MauiTrader: you guys should be learning something major here
[2007.12.13 09:16:46] MauiTrader: BY CUTTING LOSSES
[2007.12.13 09:16:52] MauiTrader: AND FIXING A HUGE ERROR
[2007.12.13 09:16:52] MauiTrader: IMMEDIATELY
[2007.12.13 09:17:01] MauiTrader: AND NOT STICKING WITH THE WRONG MOVE AND INCORRECT GAME PLAN
[2007.12.13 09:17:05] MauiTrader: I JUST SAVED MY ASS
[2007.12.13 09:17:11] MauiTrader: !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
[2007.12.13 09:18:15] Aloha! You are in the MauiTrader’s Lounge
[2007.12.13 09:18:15] MauiTrader has entered the room “MauiTrader’s Lounge”
[2007.12.13 09:18:18] MauiTrader: WTF!!!!!!
[2007.12.13 09:18:21] MauiTrader: ANYWAYS
[2007.12.13 09:18:29] MauiTrader: I JSUT SAVEDD MY ASS A LOT OF HEARTACKE
[2007.12.13 09:18:33] MauiTrader: AMAZING
[2007.12.13 09:18:37] MauiTrader: ASYS IS DOWN 30%
[2007.12.13 09:18:43] MauiTrader: WHICH IS 60% ON MARGIN
[2007.12.13 09:18:51] MauiTrader: AND 120% ON IB MARGIN
[2007.12.13 09:19:07] MauiTrader: WHICH WOULD HAVE KILLED OVER 30% OF MY ACCOUNTS
[2007.12.13 09:19:32] MauiTrader: SO BY CUTTING MY LOSSES AND GETTING THE HELL OU TOF DODGE
[2007.12.13 09:19:42] MauiTrader: INSTEAD I HAD NO CLUE THIS NOW POS STOCK HAD ANY DAMAGE
[2007.12.13 09:19:49] MauiTrader: BECAUSE MY SHORTS ARE ROCKING
[2007.12.13 09:20:17] MauiTrader: IMAGINE IF I WOULD NOT HAVE TAKEN THOSE SHORTS AFTER THAT BAD DAY; IMAGINE IF I AM SO DEPRESSED I DONT TAKE THESE SHORTS OR SELL MY ASYS
[2007.12.13 09:20:22] MauiTrader: NOT ONLY DO I LOSE MONEY ON ASYS
[2007.12.13 09:20:29] MauiTrader: I LOSE MONEY BY NOT MAKING MONEY IN THE SHORTS
[2007.12.13 09:20:36] MauiTrader: THIS IS REALLY AN AMAZING LESSON TO BE LEARNED
[2007.12.13 09:20:55] MauiTrader: AND THAT NO ONE IS AROUND (9 PEOPLE ARE HERE BUT NO ONE SAID ANYTHING ABOUT THIS) IS BAD
[2007.12.13 09:21:00] MauiTrader: I HOPE YOU ALL READ THIS LATER 
[2007.12.13 09:21:08] MauiTrader: ACTUALLY I AM GOING TO POST THIS ON THE BLOG
[2007.12.13 09:21:10] MauiTrader:
The Incredibly Ignorant Fed Injects Liquidity Allowing Me To Enter My Shorts With Fantastic Fills; Late-Day Bounce Salvages One Of The Ugliest Back-To-Back Sessions In A Long Time
December 13, 2007 | Leave a Comment
Today was easily one of the most obvious sell the open scenarios I have seen setup for us in a long time. Just when you can not think that the Fed can possibly be more clueless they go and do something as foolish as leak these comments and then state that they, along with other banks, injected the most liquidity in the market since the 9/11 attacks. This asinine move managed to panic the shorts overnight and the next thing you know we are waking up to a mother of all short squeezes.
With the Nasdaq up 2.3% and my current long holdings roaring along, I noticed something with all the stocks I wanted to short. None of them gapped higher than their HOD yesterday and all of them looked like they had no momentum in them on the gap. Therefore, I stuck with the trading plan and shorted them across the board. By the end of the day, despite the late day rally, almost every single one was showing me profits. Not only that but then there were a few new recent longs that had a great day. Then one more thing ON TOP OF THAT was that by the closing bell NONE of my current longs needed to be fully sold. That was, of course, until after the bell when BIIB crashed. That one will now be completely eliminated.
This kind of action is what makes everyone confused. For instance, we looked like we were ready to sell off to another LOD close. But in the last few minutes a wicked-powerful rally took the indexes well off the lows still leaving them very weak compared to the open but ultimately leaving them still with gains. This is clearly a very volatile market and probably a market that should only be “traded” by experienced individuals. If you are new to the game, this is the kind of market you want to learn to be in heavy cash. Even though I sometimes yell at my friends to go short when it is the “perfect moment” (or closest you are going to get!!) but sometimes, when you are new, doing nothing is the smartest thing.
Low Volume Rally Runs Right Into Major Resistance: THE FED!; Stocks Selloff On Higher Volume Possibly Ending This Recent Rally
December 11, 2007 | Leave a Comment
What more can you say but WOW!? There is no doubt in my mind that this was one of the worst intraday selloffs I have ever seen in my trading life. Now, I am sure I probably have seen one this nasty before. In fact, in all honesty, I know I have. But it hasn’t been since at least 2000-2002. Since then, I know we have never seen anything like this so late in a day destroying the market like this.
Since I focus on individual charts more than I do to any of the talking heads on the web or TV, I can manage to fight through all the confusion. However, this has been a market that has definitely not helped me out at all. My charts are basically worthless to me, right now. Sadly, this year has seen nothing but disappointments left and right by HOT HOT HOT stocks with great charts. Even when those chart patterns had powerful fundamentals driving the price higher it seemed after the perfect buy signal was given that it would fail.
Recently, despite the low volume, the market has produced some nice charts, making some (including myself) believe that this rally could last longer than expected. However, today put an end to all of that thought. Most hot stocks also felt the wrath of the market today as everything I owned seemed to pullback.
Stocks Drift Higher On Lighter Volume Before Tomorrow’s FOMC Meeting; Is This The Quiet Before The Storm?
December 10, 2007 | 1 Comment
If today’s market, by proxy of the Nasdaq, was a roller-coaster, today sure would have been a lot of fun. But unfortunately it is not real easy to ride the market around on days like today and it makes me thankful that I have a longer time frame than one or two hours per trade. The good news about a wild session like today some investors can take is that at least it is not 3% moves up and down intraday. If that was the case, I am sure many traders would be going nuts. Thankfully, this market is much more calm, according to the VIX.
On my charts it appears that volume was lower across the board which would make this the fourth day in a row that volume has contracted. If the market was pulling back on lower volume I would be very happy. However, this lower volume is coming with the market rallying right into the Fed day.
Many of you might remember that the last time we had a low volume rally going into the Fed meeting in September we ended up blasting off with a follow-through day and continued to rally on lower volume. That could very easily happen here as it appears many investors are not invested in this market–I can’t blame them; there are very few new leading stocks breaking out that are not already up over 1000000000%. But at the same time, this market is very overbought on many ob/os oscillators (just like in September, I remind you) and is running right into the Fed meeting. So it is possible that we could be setting up for a sell the news situation.
Stock Market Investing Education Books
December 9, 2007 | 10 Comments
Before I list these books, I have to tell everyone that I have read many stock market books. Unfortunately, I have not read a new one since 2002. So there may be some current books that are great too, but these are the ones that definitely helped change my trading life.
I can’t remember anymore, but I think when I was 18 I was in a major automobile accident and had a very serious injury happen to me. It ended my collegiate sports carreer but helped start a lucrative stock market carreer.
During the time spent in the hospital and at home (home hospital) during the year it took me to fully recover, I purchase over 100 books. Out of those 100 books, I still own all of them. Sadly, if someone could have told me about 90 of them were pure junk and couldn’t help me out making money consistently, I would not have bought any of them and would have used the money to invest/trade. Therefore, I would buy just what I list here. I have a bookshelf of books I will never EVER read again, but along with those are these gems that are invaluable and have been read, by me, many times over.
SP 500 And Nasdaq Pullback In A Calm Fashion On Lower Volume, While The DJIA And IBD Indexes Continue To Rally; Where Is The Volume And Where Are The New Leading Stocks?
December 7, 2007 | 5 Comments
Overall, it was a pretty choppy and inconsistent day on Friday, but it was still a good day when we take it and consider that we continue to hold well in the face of all the bad news from the subprime area of the economy.
I heard many complain that we did not finish higher today on the Nasdaq. I, however, disagree with them and find it more bullish that we finished a tad lower. That shows me that we are consolidating the gains, since the November 28th follow-through day from the IBD indexes, quite well. If we would have sold off today on heavier volume, then I wouldn’t consider the days action bullish. But the fact the we sold off a little and the volume was lower is exactly how you want to see the market pullback after adding on some solid gains.
Don’t forget that the DJIA finished higher, even though volume was extremely low, and that the IBD 100 and IBD 85-85 indexes finished higher. The big caps and leading stocks seemed to hold up well on a day of profit taking. So the people that were not happy with the Nasdaq do not have to look too far to find some other positives in the market.
READ COMMENTS BELOW–Nasdaq, SP 500, And DJIA Have Their Follow-Through Days Five Days AFTER IBD Indexes Follow-Through; Volume Was Light With It Just Above Average On The Nasdaq And Just Below Average On The NYSE
December 5, 2007 | 4 Comments
The major stock market indexes finally caught up with the IBD indexes and put in their own follow-through day as all the indexes rallied 1.4% or better, with the Nasdaq leading 1.8%. The IBD 100 did follow the Nassy with a 1.7% but that is not a bad thing as when you have tech stocks leading with leading stocks that is only a good thing.
Nobody knows how long it is going to be a good thing. But like I always tell people, “you do not need to know when the trend is going to end to make money in the market. You just need to know what trend you are in and act accordingly.” Keeping it simple is the best way to attack this market. Right now, after today’s follow-through day on the indexes nobody can say that the rally “isn’t real.” It is very real and there are enough pretty charts out there that you should not be ignoring the gains.
Sure this could end tomorrow but right now it could just as easily leap another 1.5% tomorrow. The reason for that is that the put/call ratio did fall but it did not swoon as the market rallied. The put/call came in at .87 which is lower than the .97 yesterday but the fact it is not in the low .60 area shows that there is still a little bit of fear in the market. Now while nobody knows how long it will be until the fear turns into euphoria, all we need to know is that right now the crowd seems to not think stocks can rally here so chances are that they will.
Stocks Pullback On Lower Volume; Despite Pullback My Recent Longs Are Looking Bright
December 4, 2007 | Leave a Comment
There are some slight signs that I am starting to see that could lead to this market rallying further, if the Fed does what is right come December 11 and lower the rates 50 basis points. Even if they don’t, it might not matter, as a little bit of fear appears to be entering the market–not a lot, but some.
The market fell a decent total today, I guess you could say, with Tuesday’s .7% loss in the SP 500 and Nasdaq. However, there was some good news behind the selling in which volume came in lower than yesterday’s already quiet levels. The fact that we are not selling on strong volume is an indication that the market is healthier than many think it is. And now with the bears starting to rear their ugly heads, once again, in the media it might be time to make sure you are not pressing your bets to the short side.
Now, don’t forget, I am pretty much agnostic here and could care less which way the market goes because there are very few HOT charts in either longs or shorts right now. There is not an area where perfect charts are setting up. So with that it is hard for me to marry a side. Currently, I lean to the bullish side since we have confirmed a follow-through. But I am not an ignorant perma-bull either and I can see the resistance and problems that are clearly there.
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Recent Posts
- Late Day Selloff On Lower Volume Shows The Bulls Are Not Ready To Run; A Test Of The Lows Might Be Needed To Get A Real Bounce
- Nice Rally Today Too Bad It Was On Below Average Volume
- Stocks Rally On Mixed Volume As Yet Another Day Of Insane Volatility Comes To An End
- If You Do Not Give Up, You Will Create Great Financial Wealth
- Stocks Resume Selloff As Distribution Day Rattles Investors Who Bought Last Weeks LAME Rally
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