Stocks Continue To Selloff On Higher Volume; VRUS Bucks The Trend
January 16, 2008 | 11 Comments
I am severely depressed and am not going to post commentary tonight. If any of you believe in God please say a prayer for me. I am losing my freaking mind and need a lot of help right now. I am not sure why but I am in a sever state of depression right now. It has been at least ten year since I have felt like this. I feel so overwhelmed that I can not even talk about the market. I sincerely apologize. Just pray form me, if you believe. If you don’t believe….I can’t say I blame you.
So Much For Those Nice Charts–The Market Didn’t Care At All; Stocks Breakdown Below Support, Across The Board, On Higher Volume
January 15, 2008 | 9 Comments
Even though the longs I took yesterday that were CANSLIM quality did not have a bad day–they opened lower and gave us only small losses with ALL holding above the cut loss points. The only one that did poor was BYI. So nobody can say I put you into anything that blew up today. That is good news #1. Good news #2 is that we were still very short and those new longs had no impact on my portfolio that was heavy short. I only hope everyone else was still as short as I was. If you have been following this blog, there is almost no way you could have walked away from today with losses. That is unless you were 100% cash and bought either FCSX or SDTH like I did yesterday, in a family member’s account. Woops. LOL.
The one thing I try to do on this blog is be different in my approach to the market. So that is why you do not see me leave the % total and volume figures. I figure those that are reading this are intelligent enough to already know what the market did. However, without some of my readers I would not know how bad it really was because while I work on fixing my laptop and setting up a new one for my charts, I was just told the market is down another 2% AH due to an INTC miss causing its stock to fall 10%.
Stock Indexes Gap Higher And Hold On To Those Gains, Closing Near Their HODs, On Lighter Volume; An Amazing Number Of Longs Bounce Or Breakout From Beautiful Bases, Even With The Lower Volume
January 14, 2008 | 2 Comments
OF COURSE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! MY FREAKING LAPTOP BLEW UP LAST NIGHT SO NOW I HAVE TO GET ANOTHER ONE. IT IS THE ONE WITH MY TCNET AND CHARTS SO EVERYTHING IS SCREWED. SORRY. 
I DON’T KNOW GUYS AS SOON AS SOMETHING GOOD HAPPENS IN MY LIFE THE VERY NEXT DAY I GET FUCKED. MY LIFE HAS BEEN LIKE THIS MY WHOLE LIFE AND IT STILL WONT STOP. IF THIS IS WHAT HAPPENED TO JESSE LIVERMORE, I DON’T BLAME HIM FOR KILLING HIMSELF. LIFE FUCKING SUCKS RIGHT NOW, JUST LIKE IT ALWAYS HAS. BUT I GUESS I HAVE TO KEEP FIGHTING OR ELSE I WILL END UP LIKE LIVERMORE. THE KEY IS TO NEVER TO STOP FIGHTING AND TO SAY FUCK YOU TO THIS WORLD. AND THAT IS WHAT I CONTINUE TO DO.
Anyways, I have to keep this short since somehow more bad shit has happened to me YET AGAIN!!!!!!!!!!! But the market is still just in the middle of a short oversold bounce. There are a lot of nice charts that have developed that make great longs I really wanted to get into them tonight but I am FUCKED!!! I am sorry for the cursing but if you lived my life I think at this point when SERIOUS shit like this happens, you would be over it too. Now I have to either wait for Dell or buy a new laptop. So whatever, money grows out of my ass right?
Oversold Bounce Has No Bounce As Stocks Selloff All Day Long On Lower Volume
January 12, 2008 | 3 Comments
The stock market ended the week the exact same way it started and that is with a lot of selling. On Monday the market found support intraday to stop it but on Friday there was none of that support as the market took the bounce that started on Wednesday and slammed it to the ground.
Now, I know a lot of people that are chart watcher want to be real bearish here, especially since the retail public has been brainwashed to buy these dips, but the fact is that we are still above the Wednesday’s lows and that the market’s bounce is in fact still intact. And the other item I see is that volume was lower on today’s move lower than on the previous two days of gains.
But there is one obvious problem I already see with this bounce. There are still no fresh stocks breaking out of beautiful properly formed bases on strong volume. Therefore, there is no way that we can expect anything more than an oversold bounce right now.
If You Have Some Big Gains In Your Short Positions, It Is Time To Take Some Profits (20%-50%); Stock Indexes Gain Ground On Lower Volume Marking Day Two Of Rally Attempt
January 10, 2008 | Leave a Comment
Well it might have been a day of gains on the stock indexes but there is plenty that is left to the imagination if this is all the market can do. Stocks put in a very wild intraday session that led to the indexes rallying at the EOD giving the indexes nice gains by the close, with the IBD New America index, the Gold index, and the AMEX showing the biggest gains with 1.3% to 1.4% rallies. This was a positive way to end the day, after the gains earlier in the day that were produced by “busy Ben” were erased. But as I said earlier there were many signs underneath the market that continue to give the impression that this is nothing but a oversold bounce. Hint one is the low volume. I have never seen ANY meaningful bottom be made on such light volume, after such a severe bout of selling that we have enjoyed since early November.
I am clear that nobody knows where the market is going to go at any point in the future but I just don’t think it would be a wise idea to trust this rally and think that we have seen a bottom. Some of the obvious reason for that is that I already see people talking about buying the bargains in the beaten down sectors. Which oddly enough happened to be the sectors that all rallied today with the banks, brokerage stocks, retail, REITs, and homebuilders all doing the best. On top of that the big news was in a stock that has been beat up CFC. Rumors that BAC was interested in CFC (see below) gave the stock a 50% pop today. If this was truly a rally, that we should all be getting excited about, I think we would see some new “flavor” from the tech arena. The simple fact that we don’t have fresh faces showing up is clearly a red flag to me about this rally.
Stock Put In A Very Bullish Intraday Reversal On Higher Volume, As We Go From Panice To Joy In A Few Hours
January 9, 2008 | Leave a Comment
After eight straight down days where volume expands on every single day it was getting to be a little too much and a rally had to be expected. That expected rally showed up almost immediately as an intraday selloff was greeted with extreme pessimism as many market players that were short were salivating over the possibility of even more gains.
That extreme level of bearishness combined with the fear of the retail long crowd combined to put a low in for stocks shortly after 1pm today and a very nice rally followed. The rally doesn’t appear to be a real strong bottom as the volume barely expanded over the recent volume on the down sessions. But this is day one of an attempted rally and we have to respect that no matter what. Even if it does fail, we do not know how long this uptrend could last and by the time it is over it may give us a few big winners. Right now, it doesn’t look like that will happen because unlike the pullbacks the past two years this pullback has left too many stock charts tattered and torn. The few nice charts that are out there are in issues that are either too thin or too volatile to make great longs.
Today’s action is just another volatile session in a market that most investors should be avoiding. It is not a good idea to be a “bargain” hunter when so many stocks that are dipping just continue to dip. I mean just take a look at the new 52-week low list. You will see that a lot of those stocks have been making repeat appearances on that list for months. That proves that buying stocks is not the right move right now; much less buying stocks in downtrends which is always a no-no. The market is so weak right now that the number of new lows is beating the number of new highs by an insane margin. Now while this does portend to the possibility that we are too negative and too extended on the downside and that we need to rally the fact that there were 1346 new lows to 84 new highs proves that this is not a market to be long.
Stocks Continue Their Selloff On Higher Volume; Market Seems Very Oversold For Me
January 8, 2008 | 1 Comment
The market did what everyone and his mother who looks at charts figured it would do when it sold off today on higher volume. The technical picture is beyond “tore-up” and there appears to be no hope for those that have held their longs as this market has sold off. The worst part about this selloff, for bulls that is, is that the leading big-cap tech stocks that led the way higher are just now starting to crack. The first one that led the way higher was GRMN. For those that haven’t seen that chart lately, I would go take a look. It is one ugly bugger. Too bad RM wasn’t on the ball faster or else a lot of readers might have had a chance to get out before this most recent 10% drop. Ugly.
Not only has the market been real ugly but there is not anything that appears to be working at all (by this I mean stocks running 20% in one week and 100% in one month) even in this ugly tape. For those that have been following, I have been posting my personal past winners that had HOT charts when I went long and at the top. Back in 2000 and 2001, despite the nasty action of the market, there were still a handful, that clearly stuck out in the scans via their green charts, that went on to produce big gains. This happened on multiple rally and selloff stages of the market during that time. My question now is “where are all of these winners?”
It Could Be A Short-Term Oversold Bottom With The Heavier Volume But It Is Too Early To Tell
January 7, 2008 | Leave a Comment
Despite the late day rally, the indexes still looked weak since they couldn’t hold either of the intraday runs. Overall, things still look the same as they did on Friday. So I suggest we just leave it at that. Maybe later on, tonight, I will post some important stuff if I see anything show up. If I don’t then there will not be anything posted tonight. I am simply too upset to talk about the market, right now. Especially with it not doing anything significant today.
I apologize to those that thought my first realmoney.com post would be today. I sent it to RM over the weekend and was told AFTER THE CLOSING BELL that they never received it–nice communication! That obviously has made me very upset since the article was very good and very simple. The five stocks I reviewed ALL went lower like I said they would. I was 5 for 5 and it would have made a great first contribution. But instead, once again, in my life, I got F’ed! Different story, same ending.
This shit is going to make a great book one day. That is if I live that long. Right now 2008 is starting off right where 2007 ended…and that is not good. It sucks to be me. Don’t ever think that I have it made because I can trade for a living w/ no boss and I live on Maui. I am still a prisoner to my past and current way of thinking.
Nasty Day Spreads To All Areas Of The Market As Stocks Tank On Much Higher Volume; Our Short Positions, Finally, Crack Wide Open Producing Very Large Gains Making Many People Very Happy
January 6, 2008 | 1 Comment
Stock indexes tanked on Friday and there simply is absolutely no way to spin Friday’s action any way to the bull side what-so-ever. I guess, you could say, that the market is very oversold right now after six straight down sessions on the Nasdaq. However, the ferocity of the selling, combined with there being absolutely ZERO nice charts setting up and nearing breakouts from fresh bases, leads me to believe that ANY rally we see off of these levels will probably fail as there is a TON of resistance in the short term.
When you combine the intermediate trend of the market, with the weak action on Friday you have a market that should seriously have you protecting your capital. Not only did the Nassy gap lower but it also closed right near the LOD. This shows that they were selling them into the close–they could not dump them fast enough.
When that kind of action starts showing up in the daily market indexes it is time to worry if you are heavily long. If you fail to heed these warning signs and continue to “believe” that your stock “will comeback” it is time to wake up and hear the truth: you should be selling down all of your holdings and if the stock is below the 200 DMA you should completely rid yourself of the laggard. This is not a market to mess with.
Members Discuss with MauiTrader about their gains and the state of the Market
January 4, 2008 | 1 Comment
Today marked an interesting day for the Markets. Some Platinum members expressed how happy they are with the Big Wave Trading service today in MauiTrader’s Lounge. This snip-bit from today’s conversation shows you that we are serious yet have the ability to have a bit of fun. We are heading into bear territory with the market, its been a slow rolling death since the high at the end of October. Check out the conversation!
