New Longs And Shorts Posted For Thursday’s Market Session At BWT.com
April 30, 2008 | Leave a Comment
FULL COMMENTARY W/ MARKET ANALYSIS WILL BE POSTED LATER AFTER I GET BACK FROM A LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOONG SURF SESSION. THREE LONGS AND THREE SHORTS FOR TOMORROW IS A SIGN THAT THE MARKET IS FINALLY GIVING US A LOT MORE ACTION.
IF YOU ARE NOT A SUBSCRIBER, YOU JUST MISSED OUT ON A NEAR-PERFECT SETUP BY A CANSLIM LONG THAT EXPLODED TODAY FOR US, GIVING US AN IMMEDIATE FOLLOW-THROUGH. THIS WAS A LARGE POSITION, FOR YOURS TRULY, AND IT IS OBVIOUS BY TALKING WITH EXPERIENCED TRADERS THEY LOADED UP TOO. REMEMBER, THIS IS JUST THE START, IF THIS IS A BULL MARKET. THIS LONG SHOULD MOVE AT LEAST 100% BY THE END OF THE RUN. ANYTHING LESS WOULD BE A HUGE DISAPPOINTMENT.
FOR THOSE THAT HAVE PROFITED WITH ME IN PAST BULL CYCLES, YOU WILL KNOW THAT IT CAN BE VERY LUCRATIVE TO BE LONG THE RIGHT STOCKS. WE ARE LONG SOME VERY STRONG STOCKS AND AS THEY ROCKET HIGHER I WANT TO ENCOURAGE YOU NEWBIES TO BE PATIENT AND SIT ON THE GAINS FOR THE HUGE RETURNS.
Extremely Quiet Day Of Trading And A Big South Swell Equals Not Much To Talk About
April 30, 2008 | 3 Comments
The market did not do much of anything today as we all bide time ahead of the release of Q1 GDP and the FOMC interest rate decision. About the only market moving news today was the talk of V and MA earnings. Both of those stocks produced excellent action today in their respective security, with MA now giving me a 450% return in a little under two years. This is a very nice long-term capital gains. Even though the position is no longer huge, at least I still have some of it and can enjoy the Monster Stock that I own.
However, since the times that this stock broke out, it has been very hard to hold onto any past big winners for huge gains as the stock market is simply not in the right mood to help produce some huge returns. A VIX at 20 will do that! As long as this VIX stays down here and the market moves on lower volume, that is just more time that you can be sure we will have to wait before making any serious gains. When volume is well above average and the VIX is above 40 then I can wake up to some potential huge gains. Until then, we are GOING TO HAVE TO take what we are given. Rather we like it or not. Thank God I have other hobbies.
I am extremely tired today as I surfed some of the biggest waves I have ever surfed on the south shore today. I almost broke my board a few times and I could not even go to the “best” spots because there were too many people and sadly I am not good enough to get in a line-up full of semi-pros to pros and then actually get waves. Instead I will have to enjoy my time on “lesser exposed” breaks and instead watch the best of the best rip it up.
Another Very Quiet Day And Another Very Bullish Day For Our Longs; Fed Meeting Should Produce A One And Done…
April 29, 2008 | 2 Comments
It was a very quiet day of trading and until the very last hour appeared to be the lowest volume day the entire year. However, a pickup in action the past hour prevented that from happening. But instead of a rush to buy stocks there was a small little rush to sell. That helped take the indexes off their highs and helped leave them basically flat for the day with most indexes up or down between up .1% and down .2%. The biggest moving index was the SP 600 with a walloping .6% rally.
Leading stocks, in the form of the IBD 100 fell .4% but many stocks that make up this index look great, pulled back on lower volume, or actually moved higher on higher volume. Some of the bright spots that I am not long (no free picks :)) include ACL SINA STR SOHU CMI NTES and ARD. Some of the dark spots were the chemical-fertilizer stocks that are in the middle of ANOTHER possible topping process. This topping looks so much more real this time as not only is TNH in a climax run but POT MOS CF and AGU on weekly charts going back to 2002 show stocks that have gone from a sustained slight uptrend, to a strong uptrend, to an exponential uptrend, to a powerful exponential uptrend, to a parabolic uptrend, to a climatic possible top this month. With these stocks selling off in a climatic topping fashion and with so many tech, retail, bank, and other lagging stocks looking good, it does appear that this is a massive rotation. I think that is a very good thing, if not now, for the future.
The mixed results came on lower volume as volume contracted around 10% on both indexes as most investors are in a holding pattern waiting for the Fed to come out with their announcement. Even though I do not care about this really, the truth is the overall trend is very important and that trend could be coming to an end as the Fed is expected to lower rates one final time as inflation is finally starting to worry them more than economic weakness. This move might be taken as the signal for investors to get back to work.
BWT.net Re-opens Comments
April 28, 2008 | 5 Comments
Hey everyone,
The decision has been made to reopen commenting here at BWT.net. We don’t want to let a few bad apples spoil it for the whole lot. We’re going to be heavily moderating comment’s so don’t even bother sending along any negative crap. If you disagree with something Joshua says you can 1st go look at the past big winners and see all the gains he made that you missed out on, and 2nd go start your own blog and build a following of people who want to lose money listening to someone who doesn’t know 1/2 as much about the market as Joshua Hayes. I look forward to seeing everyone’s good questions and positive comments.
You can’t be living the island lifestyle and have time to be surrounded by negative people.
Notes For Monday’s Stock Market Session
April 27, 2008 | Leave a Comment
-The IBD 100 is up 228.5% compared to SP 500’s 49.5% since 4/18/08
-IBD 85-85 and IBD 100 were down for the week (-.9% compared to Nassy .8%) but they were up over 2.5% on Friday compared to Nassy down .2%.
-This appears to be rotation of some sorts out of commodities into some new sectors
-Internet-Network Solutions up 9% this week
-Computer Software-Design up 5% this week
-These industries however are being led by the usual laggards BIDU and AAPL.
-Strongest Semi stocks: PMCS MCRL VLTR FSLR CRUS JASO SMTX POWI IVAC JST LSCC SMTC AXYS
-Impressive food stocks: FDP SDA — I am long both
-Nasdaq has an A for acc/dis NYSE B SP 500 B+ IBD 85-85 C+
Bullish Intraday Reversal For Second Day In-A-Row Has Stock Indexes Closing Near The HOD (And Is The Reason Why You Should Not Panic Sell And Watch Stocks Intraday); Leading Stocks And Semiconductor Stocks Take Charge Which Is Just What You Want To See During A Rally
April 26, 2008 | Leave a Comment
I am not sure how strong and long this commentary is going to be as I have been surfing some giant waves and have been spending the past two days at the beach most of the day watching the surfing contest at Ho’okipa amongst the HS ripping groms. These kids paddle out into 10 foot face POWERFUL HEAVY waves and charge like it is nobody’s business. All of these kids surfing today were experienced but if any of them would have been newbies THEY WOULD HAVE BEEN KILLED as the waves were way too much for most mortals. These amazing kids not only surfed these waves but a lot of them now need to go spend an extra $300 to $800 for new boards as I saw at least seven surfboards break in-half! Yes the waves were that big.
What is the point of that. The point is that the windy, rough, and scary conditions were almost too much to hold a contest and the fact they did today was pretty dangerous. I take the conditions to at Ho’okipa and see a correlation to this recent market. The only exception is that the big waves do not relate to big gains and big trends but are like the volatility and lack of follow-through in this market. This market is not a market for newbies. Newbies paddling out into 10 ft. waves that are wind blown and AS ROUGH AS CAN BE is a disaster waiting to happen.
Trading Scared and with Emotions Burns Through your Capital
April 25, 2008 | Leave a Comment
In the past few days we’ve seen some nice runs in stocks and some stocks that have pulled back after gains. An example would be MTL, which we are long for those who are Big Wave Traders. Yesterday the stock was being hammered in the AM. A few members were a big frightened and had no clue what to do. Since we are not day traders it makes no sense for us to be emotional about moves intra-day. By the end of the day, MTL was down 8% but volume wasn’t overwhelming and BOP actually increased. The stock is maintaining its uptrend and has not broken down on large volume through its 50dma or 200dma. We do not panic, Jesse Livermore stated “More money is made waiting on stocks.”
This market is setting up for a big upside run. We do not want to be cutting the stocks that are making moves and rotating into laggards. Stick with your winners!
I Started Talking About The Parabolic Runs In Chemical-Fertilizer Stocks A Week Ago And Today They Confirmed The Analysis; Is Their A Possible Rotation Into Technology Stocks?
April 24, 2008 | Leave a Comment
What a weird session! Finally, something interesting to talk about. And by interesting I mean that all the chemical-fertilizer stocks that I have been listing as “parabolic charts” in my forums the past week have finally sold off on very heavy volume. I am not sure if this is the ultimate top but we are very blessed to have an excellent futures trader amongst are midst and he has been screaming to short the commodities the pat few days. Now, while those selloff, finally, the stocks start to catch up. I hope this is the top to the commodities, but something tells me this will probably be just another short term adjustment.
Either way, it really doesn’t matter to me. I have taken my 400% and 500% gain from TNH and MOS back in 2006-2007 a long time ago and I am just waiting for these things to top so that I may try to take a piece of the pie back when they head back to earth where all stocks belong after a climax run.
Nasdaq Leads The Way Higher On Slightly Higher Volume As Semiconductor Stocks Account For Much Of The Gains; AAPL Disappoints
April 24, 2008 | Leave a Comment
It was another typical day that we have seen recently where not a lot gets accomplished and we pretty much just give back whatever happened the day before in the opposite direction. Still, I do believe, that today’s gains coming with higher volume is a positive overall. And if you look at your Nasdaq daily chart, you will see that pattern show up a lot the past month (lower volume selling, higher volume rally). That is the reason the Nasdaq carries an ACC/DIS rating of A- which makes it the most heavily accumulated index out there.
Today, however, that was minor compared to the SOX’s 4% powerful rally that saw shares of BRCM leap today on huge volume. I am starting to believe that what I COULD be seeing is a rotation from commodity stocks (which don’t appear to be done yet at all) into technology stocks. That can best be viewed by taking a look at your daily SOX chart for 2008. As you can see we have a ton of excellent price action to go along with all that support right in the 340 to 350 zone. The move in the SOX today gets it ever closer to being able to take back and claim its 200 DMA. Tech stocks led in 9900 and big-cap tech did well in 2003 also. However, since then it has been all commodities but if the parabolic runs I am seeing in POT MOS AGU FEED etc…I will continue to monitor those stocks for a blowoff top and watch Semi/Tech stocks for more breakouts or possible bottoms.
I HATE calling bottoms while a stock market is falling and I hate saying a stock has bottomed until after the fact it looks bottomed. When I look at the stocks in the Semi index, I can honestly say, that I am starting to get that “feel-good” feeling in my body where I think that we are just moments away from launching a big rally. However, anything can happen in this market and I promise you that INDEED ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN. EVEN THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE this market is going to resolve itself to the upside via some tech stocks trying to regain a strong uptrend. But once again, though I feel good and it appears eventually the SOX can take off and run, anything can happen and that is why I am prepared for anything and everything. Up, down, sideways, or a halt. I have my game plan ready to go!!
Do You Have That Feeling That We Might Not Have Put In The Ultimate Bottom?
April 22, 2008 | 1 Comment
Today was not that bad, overall, minus a few stocks that were completely earnings related. However, the fact that volume did in fact pick up is still none-the-less technically a distribution day. Still with volume well below the 50 day volume average, it sure is hard to get too bearish over a day like this. But at the exact same time, it sure is hard to get really bullish here when I see so many potential nice charts start to setup only to not make it.
The higher volume selling that hit the market today was the second below-average volume distribution day in a couple of weeks. While long-term this is nothing serious, on the short-term a few more days of this could put a monkey-wrench into this rally. Right now, as it stands, though, I would not be too worried about these two days since the put/call raises to such high levels on these kind of days. If the crowd was getting more complacent, I might be a little worried that the selling might pick up.
But the fact volume remains low and the fact that almost zero stocks have shown up the past two weeks as strong short candidates is a clear tell that this isn’t a market you necessarily want to be short…or long really.
