“Talk Story” about the Market
June 29, 2008 | 1 Comment
I have to admit, those that think it is wise to be either a bull or a bear here are doing themselves a major disservice by not studying the past. This market is clearly a range bound market and taking a bullish or bearish side on the overall market is a terrible thing to do.
The correct stance to have is to be bullish in some sectors. Right now, to me, it is clearly obvious that the money is being made in energy stocks or even a couple select medical stocks. The one place you definitely do not want to be right now if you are looking to make money on the long side are the bank stocks which have 80 stocks hitting new 52-week lows. Besides the carnage in the Banks, Insurance, Leisure, Metals, and Real Estate stocks are seeing anywhere from 20 to 30 new lows daily. Now, if you are a bottom fisher trying to get the exact bottom of these stocks then you have suffered some serious damage.
Back in March, I was called names and was viciously attacked by the “buy the banks now” crowd for not buying the banks. Instead I bought stocks that were leading the market at the time as their industry groups were flying to the top of the list. A lot of these stocks included oil stocks and some technology stocks that were finally coming along. But the same old chemicals-fertilizer, steel stocks, and metals , along with the oil stocks kept leading the way up. This was kind of a clear indication that the same old leaders since 2003 were still leading the way higher. This is what prevented me from getting too bullish but at the same time the fact that I was seeing some fresh breakouts combined with old leaders like MTL had me excited that a tradeable rally was on us from March to May. However, now that June has arrived, it is apparant that that was all indeed it was: a short-term tradable rally that did allow CANSLIM investors a short time to make some good money. Stocks like PDO, QTWW, GEOI, XCO, CLR, EBIX, MA, TGC, IPI, NOG, CPST, CSIQ, ROYL, NOG, XIDE, CMP, and MCF all helped make all of my readers plenty of money and helped keep my portfolio up around 20% the past six-months while MANY colleuges of mine had a near impossible task of staying above the water. In fact I know a pretty famous wall street baffoon who has an action alert portfolio down 9.81% YTD. Yet so many still subscribe and listen to this fool that it is shocking.
Don’t Watch CNBC, Don’t Read the Wall Street Journal, Don’t Subscribe To Thestreet.com, And Move Out Of NYC
June 28, 2008 | 3 Comments
This noise gives you the BS returns you see these FOOLS on TV everyday show you. Why read or watch the PURE CRAP from these losing outfits. Anyone seen the price of TSCM or NYT recently? The day I went to work for TSCM, the stock was 13, when David “I am the most INSECURE pussy” Sterman decided I needed to go on my own the stock was 9, now with David “my hair is running away from my ugly face” Sterman in charge the stock is $6.50. What a joke.
How about NYT? Back when it wasn’t such an anti-Bush-and-a-do-anything-to-bring-down-the-USA kind of newspaper it traded at 46. Now, after we know about the EXTREME left wing IDIOTIC bias SPEWING out the pages oft his ridiculously sham of a once-great newspaper you can now buy it for $15.
How about CNBC? During the bubble days when all of its lies worked and everything seemed perfect (which was a COMPLETE ILLUSION) the stock traded at 50. Now that the HORRIBLE NEWS network that offers some of the WORST financial reporting available is on sale, you can pick some up for the low price of $26.
Not Sure What Is Going On
June 25, 2008 | 3 Comments
I am not sure what is going on but once again my .com site is down as it appears the company that is hosting our site has had their hard drive compromised. Therefore, new longs and new shorts might not be available so I am just going to post them here while we work on fixing this site and getting it working again. The new longs and shorts have been posted but God knows how long they will be available.
But as for market commentary…I am so spun from not knowing what is going on with my own website that I am unable to post anything just yet. I will be back later on and post something else, if I can get my site working. Now that the site is working all I can say is that I am extremely depressed that nothing I do works out correctly. For now this market is freaking psycho and changes its opinions from one day to the next. Until my website stops acting like the market, I have no clue what I am doing here. If you want the skinny on how to treat the longs and shorts, go to my paid longs and shorts section and read about the rules of this game there. For now, this site just SUCKS and I do not trust it right now after working perfectly for two years.
I have NEVER seen this happen before and me and my tech guys are confused as to what is going on. SO we probably have a while to wait before things are back to normal. I just pray it is sooner rather than later. I apologize for all this BS that we have to suffer. Just keep praying for me that everything will work itself out at the end. The bottom line in this market is: CASH IS KING!!
We Are Having Technical Issues With The Website And I Will Not Be Able To Post a Lot Due To This Fact
June 25, 2008 | 6 Comments
For some odd reason, I have been having nothing but problems trying to log on to this site and therefore I am just going to concede defeat and leave it as be.
Nothing new has changed in this market other than I am really starting to see a TON of once decent charts now turn into the mediocre D/F stocks that they really are. On top of these weak holdings, I have been neglecting taking care of my newer longs due to the constant small problems that were coming up tonight.
But for now, overall, it does not look good for the USA as the economy seems very weak and there seems to be alot of hurt in the financial area which is for sure going to keep this market from moving any time soon. You need banks to lead a bull market if you wnat the bull market to be very powerful and veyr bullish for my personal positiions. So overall the whole process can be very emotionally scaring.
Overall, though, the market is not that bad. I have to admit my portfolios are holding up well better than the overall market and the feeback I have been receiving from current subscribers confirm that we are crushing the market. I just want members to know now that if you killing/crushing the market right now, LOLOLOL, I can’t wait to see how much money you are going to made when a 2003 stock market bull rally starts again. I assume on flat days this will be the talk of the towns on Maui.
Nasdaq Undercuts Its earlier June lows Ahead Of The Fed Two-Day Bore-Fest
June 24, 2008 | Leave a Comment
Today was a much quieter day overall compared to Friday and in fact I took most of the day off as I helped with a youth activity summer camp. I am supposed to work the rest of the week during the times the market is open but I have a feeling in this environment I am probably making the right decision as volume is surely (but not always) to come in lower the next couple of sessions until the Fed announces its rate decision.
The mixed trading on lighter volume is normal ahead of the Fed which has recently become famous for unleashing very volatile intraday sessions the day of the announcement. But going into the announcement we really are not setting ourselves up for a very positive catalyst as stock indexes have been weak with all of them undercutting recent lows on the big-cap indexes. The Nasdaq joined the rest of the market today closing below its June 12th lows and it reached its lowest price since April 22. That is clearly a sign of a weak market. This sort of action is picture proof to me that we are just not in a healthy market environment and that the proper way to play the game is to be defensive.
There wasn’t too much action today that caught my attention that I felt that we must go over but I did notice that high put/call ratio of 1.25 has come in to a .85 reading signaling that the complacency of the possibility of higher stock process has returned. But it returned on a down day which shows that a high put/call ratio is no guarantee of a new rally. Why? Simple. The market is too weak. Even with the “dumb money” buying puts it dont matter because the market is just so week. I think today alone there were 117 new 52-week highs to 494 new 52-week lows. When you have a market this weak, it is going to take more than a high put/call ratio and an investors intelligence ratio that shows the bears barely beating the bulls. No, what this market STILL needs, it would appear, is another washout.
DJIA, SP-500, NYSE, and Nasdaq Breakdown On Very Strong Volume; The SP-600 (SmallCap Index) Is Starting To Show Strong Relative Strength To The Overall Market
June 22, 2008 | 3 Comments
Well there is absolutely nothing else that can describe Friday other than pure utter disappointment. I am telling you right now that the odds of us starting another leg lower has increased by leaps and bounds after Friday’s breakdown. Why? Because something that happened this time last happened in 2000. After an initial breakdown, some stocks recovered and some created very bullish chart patterns. After initially working, they soon all reversed as around August 2000 the stock market then resumed its trend lower. There is nothing that says that we are going to have a bear market like we did in 2000. However, the 10 new shorts that I have for Monday have the EXACT SAME PATTERNS that I saw in August to September of 2000.
What is that pattern? After years-and-years-and-years of price gains (most stocks now are from 2002-2008–six year uptrends) the stocks started to chop around creating a churning area that many amateurs mistake as bases. What these amateurs failed to notice was that those bases were created on HUGE volume, unlike anything that had occurred before that time frame. If you are a subscriber go take a look at those long term charts that I posted. I post those charts to show you the whole previous uptrend, show you the rolling over churning action on much heavier volume, and then you can go and look at your own charts at home and see the breakdown with my detailed analysis. These charts sure do look like the same charts in technology stocks with no earnings back in 2000. There is no difference in chart patterns. Only the stock names are different. The really scary part, this time, is that it is not money losing internet companies…it is money losing banks. This is sort of scary.
PREMIUM ANALYSIS FOR NON-SUBSCRIBERS FROM BIGWAVETRADING.COM
June 21, 2008 | 3 Comments
Along with what everyone reads here every night/morning, I also post premium analysis and my longs/shorts/sells on my .com site for a fee. Most subscribers I have talked to recently have been extremely happy the past week, despite the market throwing investors for a major loop.
One email I recently received I think sums it up best and if I don’t promote myself I don’t know who will. The truth is that this market might get real ugly and some of you that only read the free analysis might be in for some major pain. After that pain is inflicted you might then miss the next great bull market that will FOR SURE make every subscriber to this site rich. If you do not believe me I would like for you to study my ‘PAST BIG WINNERS’ from 1999 and 2003. There is more than enough to go around for everyone.
Anyways, here is a recent email I received TODAY:
Good Thing We Did Not Listen To The Buy The Banks Crowd
June 20, 2008 | Leave a Comment
Now, my port is not nearly down as much as the market is today but still a lot of my promising looking longs are now worthless. Great patterns that were lining up everywhere have now taken a major hit. But still most are holding above the ultimate support. So there are not a lot of full sells yet. Maybe by the EOD that will change but for now the damage is in the banks.
The same group where people were screaming at us for not buying the banks back in March. For all of those that tried to get me to buy banks stocks…..HA HA HA HA HA HA. You guys went after me so hard and now history is giving you a taste of your own medicine. Today’s swoon is what we need to build a real bottom. It will not be here Monday but we are working on the right steps. I am a bit more positive after today’s swoon simply due to the fact my longs are not suffering NEARLY as much as the banks and indexes are right now.
It pays to be in leading stocks and it pays to keep cash on the sidelines when the market is not roaring higher.
Oil Falls And The Nasdaq Rallies On Higher Volume; Philly Semiconductor Index Rallies 2.6%
June 20, 2008 | 2 Comments
There wasn’t really a whole lot going on Thursday when it comes to leading stocks as I only had 4 positions to take. That should tell you it was a pretty boring day for a higher volume session. But sometimes boring is good especially when oil falls almost $5 to $131.93. That along with the good news that Iraq is going to team up with USA oil companies helped keep oil in the spotlight all day long.
However, the only thing that I am interested in doing, besides taking profits in some of my small oil winners, is to now closely watch big oil. I got two stocks that today gave me a short entry signal on big oil. There are about another handful of these guys that are close to being new shorts also. I am not sure if this is “THE TOP” but it is shaping up and looking like it is “THE TOP FOR NOW.” I have charts that have been rallying for years-and-years-and-years that are slowly starting to rollover with heavy churning the past six months preceding this rollover. The rollover also has some decent volume on the drop which signals that the big money is probably selling big oil. The fact that last week oil gained so much and these stocks sold off should also be a tell that the end is near, for now, on this latest oil run.
That looks to be good news for tech stocks which are setting up across the board. Now, obviously, these could all rollover and fail to produce anything. But as long as the Nasdaq continues to rise on stronger volume our chances improve. Still this stupid index needs to get moving SOON!!!! or else I am going to start questioning if this rally is going to turn into a real bull market. But the more we just drift around after the initial March gains, the more I think that this might be a bear market rally. I hope I am wrong. But something tells me I am probably not.
For The Second Day In A Row, The Market Falls But My Accounts Do Well; The Bears Are Rising
June 19, 2008 | 2 Comments
All indexes fell around 1% today on heavier volume technically making today a distribution today. However, the late day bounce and the fact that a lot of my longs continue to hold up VERY WELL into this selling makes the distribution day seem a little lame to me. However, the statistical facts are still facts and they say that we just had another distribution day despite the obvious intraday support. Still it was ugly, unless you were in oil.
Thankfully, I am in most of my biggest positions. Sadly my biggest position did not do well but that was made up for by 3 oil stocks that are in my top 10 holdings that FLEW today. The poor action in my biggest holding hurts but the lower volume helped. The oil stocks however are getting exponentially parabolically, climaxy out of control. Still the top is not signaled yet and there is no way I am going to attempt to top call another commodity after my incorrect guess that the chemical-fertilizers topped in July and January. 0 for 2 and not looking to strike out.
Where I did strike out and once again I am HIGHLIGHTING MY MISTAKES. Which is something most do not do. Why do I do that? Because I do NOT have many. But LNN was a mistake. I should have stressed more to readers that earnings were coming up and it was a late stage base. I only bought a few shares in only one account but I do not think I made myself clear to some and for that all I can say is I am sorry and then point you to PDO MA GEOI MCF which have gained 243%, 488%, 180%, and 205% respectively. It is a stock picker market but you can find 3 out of 4 have the exact same thing: energy.
