The Stock Market Indexes Fall But My Stocks And Other Leading Stocks FLY!!!
June 18, 2008 | Leave a Comment
I guess it is all about where you are in the market and if you are long PDO in bulk, like I am, you have almost a 200% gain in 1 1/2 months. There are about another 10 stocks that are very heavy in my portfolio and currently on my IB list they are all green with half up 20% or more. So obviously, if you are in the right leading stocks, you are doing very well. At the same time, for once, while my longs are doing well, the stocks that I am short are also falling. This is about as good as it gets and I am still 10% below my 2008 YTD highs in my account but I am now setup in STRONGER and more green stocks than the old stocks I was just in that gave me sell signals to move on. This is the advantage about being active, using low cost commission broker ($1 to $5), and using the CANSLIM methodology. If the market can actually get a rally going here, you are going to see why in REAL BULL MARKET (do not be confused and think that this is one–it is the furthest from one as it can be as there is no huge volume on the accumulation days) I destroy most of partners in this profession.
Right now, I still think there is a good amount of bearishness out there as I even have a FEW subscribers that are FOR SURE this market is in a bear market rally and that we will be rolling over shortly thus touching new lows. That may be true, but dang guys you sure did miss out on making a TON of money to the long side in the oil&gas arena. This is why I prefer to ride the trends up and down, while keeping my opinions and emotions and all that other BS (that you happen to see on CNBC “by the pros” ALL THE TIME–which is why I NEVER watch the stupid channel) out of the market. I have enough time in my personal life keeping my opinions to myself; I don’t need to fight the market either. Why go short and make a 10% gain when you can CURRENTLY go long and get a 50% gain. IT JUST DOESN’T MAKE SENSE and no matter how much YOU believe it is the right way to trade HISTORY AND PROVEN RESEARCH PROVES YOU ARE WRONG. There is one of you that this is directly being said to. But there are others that are guilty of this one traders forgotten history lesson.
Fabulous Day For My Leading Stocks!; Nassy, SP 500, And NYSE Rise While The DJIA Falls, On Lower Volume
June 16, 2008 | 1 Comment
I have another MRI and another Dr. appointment today. So I am not going to have a lot to put here tonight but I do promise an update before I go to bed. This market has just put me back over 10% for year by a nice margin and the way my leading stocks are setup, if all goes right, there should be a nice rally that provides us with more great returns.
For now, those who are as long as me are long solely based on the bullish charts. I think there is more upside ahead and even if it fails now I should still be able to escape with a 10% gain. My leading and biggest longs look great and all of my new CANSLIM longs had an EXCELLENT (5% or more kinda excellent) day today!!! There should be more to come. Be ready for a failure in the intermediate term but don’t discount how oversold the market is on the oscillators on the short-term.
Be back later tonight after all my doctor visits. MS sucks!!!! So does my surfing!!!!
Amazing How This Market Changes Like It Does. Now I Have Nice Charts Literally EVERYWHERE!
June 14, 2008 | 2 Comments
These charts that are setup in extremely bullish patterns right now, however, will probably be destroyed on Monday. However, just the thought of me thinking this might be the bearishness needed to make this rally attempt work. The bottom line today was that my scans “went off” with a ton of stocks giving long signals. Not only that but there are now so many stocks in my watch list that if this market starts moving, I am 100% sure I am going to have no problem making a lot of money.
Even if it doesn’t work out I am already back to almost a 10% gain after the great day in a few stocks I am heavily invested in for the YTD. If a rally would occur now I think I would have no problem beating most of my investing “partners” in the current market. I see a lot of bearishness on bullish stocks and bullishness on ugly bank stocks. That is just what I like to see by the general public. That along with the high NYSE short-interest ratio and no one believing that stocks can rally because Cramer says the market is oversold and an index is giving him a buy signal. This time, for a change, Cramer will be right. Unlike his Action Alert Portfolio which is down 8% YTD; almost an 18% difference in performance YTD. Maybe that is why he has to promote all those books and give away his service for a 50% discount. I can personally tell you right now that he WAS ONCE a GREAT trader. But now he is an also-ran and I hate to admit it but a site I once loved and had the GREAT opportunity to work for, for four months, is now a pile of crap.
The junk that I read on that site today was equivalent to a pile of trash in my backyard. It was simply disturbing for someone that has mastered the CANSLIM system, like me and so many others, to be forced to read the N O I S E that comes from that place. I work for some great sites and every once in a while some great material is out there but overall 80% of it is horrible advice.
Stocks Spend The Day Killing The Life Out Of Those Looking Forward To A Possible Rally
June 13, 2008 | Leave a Comment
Well, I don’t know about you but I told my whole chat room today that this market has officially given me its “you better not go long, unless it is oil or metals” signal today when it took AEHR and threw it for that nasty reversal. Take that with the speculative STSI which had a “near-perfect” speculative chart and all the other high quality longs like CYBS SOL and VISN that have been treated like crap right after creating nice chart patterns and you have a market that clearly is not going to rally.
I know! It does suck. But the great news is that at least we recognize it. Instead of going long ABK or LEH in March thinking we got the lows we stuck with the leaders, we made some money, and now sadly we are being told “this is all you will get.” I have had a 35% gain YTD turn into a 5% gain in 10 days. How do you think I feel? Surprisingly, you would be surprised that I don’t feel as disappointed as sad that this is now what the market does to my nice charts. But this is a clear vote of confidence for CANSLIM. If I had stuck to buying only the best of the leading groups (QTWW, ICO, XCO, NCOC, PDO, and GEOI) which have made me good money then I would be sitting pretty. Instead the market decided to fake ALL GROWTH investors out by setting up some stocks for possible huge runs.
There is nothing I can say about this market that has not been said. What is at least a little bit more reassuring is that IBD has changed its outlook today to “market in correction.” Not only that but it is clear RevShark has gone completely bearish which is, of course, always good to be on the same side as him. Though the gains are not as massive as they used to be. But heck who is killing the market anymore? Only those long oil stocks, metal stocks, crude oil, or corn. Corn is like the Celtics. Non-stop gains. Even when it is down by a lot if comes back.
What A Difference Four Days Makes!
June 12, 2008 | Leave a Comment
Well I am about as upset as the next guy about this rally turning into what it has now turned into–a reversal of a breakout to a breakdown. After speaking with a great trader tonight, who also has a stellar long-term record, I am now comfortable with the thoughts that I have recently had about the market.
What are those thoughts? That this market is pure trash. Folks I don’t know how to put this any other way but this is clear bear market action. You do not see key indexes take out key moving averages (like the Nassy taking out the 200 DMA four days ago, etc..) and then immediately fail them and reverse and then breakdown right through another key moving average. This is simply not bullish action.
But, imo, what makes this worse is that the market is still not clear at all. Just last week the market appeared to be properly climbing the wall-of-worry that the media was creating. On top of that, “hot” charts started to show up again setting up in bases that I have seen before that lead to huge gains. But, once again, just like in 2007, these charts either fail immediately or STILL after producing quick gains reverses and loses nearly all of them.
I Have Always Said There Is Nothing Worse For Stocks To Setup In Bullish Patterns Across The Board And Then Fail
June 11, 2008 | Leave a Comment
Well, today, it looks to be officially dead. There were a few stocks I have been watching recently that have held up will during the pullbacks so far. Now, they look like they are ready to give it up. This rally attempt has not failed yet but the way some of my stocks look it appears that they are on their last legs if they are to succeed. Another tell, is that in a lot of stocks I had some big gains, and almost ALL of those gains have been wiped out without the market having an extremely horrible session.
The way these gains are disappering without any warnings or announcements are very disturbing and an indication to me that it is time to stop hunting for stocks to buy. Unless they show up and scream “buy me you fool, I am no longer going to press it to the long side.”
There were about 4-5 longs that recently setup and broke out that should have produced some remarkable gains. Instead, now, they have all turned tail on lower volume (if it was higher volume, it would be at least a warning).
A Negative Intraday Reversal Off The Back Of Inflation Worries Sends Most Indexes Into The Red
June 10, 2008 | 1 Comment
I am going to come straight with everyone tonight. I feel horrible. It has been a very long time since I have felt this negative about the overall condition of the market but at this point I am simply disgusted by the amount of nice charts that decdide to setup only to be slowly taken to the woodshed. When nice round basing patterns show up that have great daily price action accompanied by powerful surges in volume with max green BOP all over the chart, I expect it to go on to produce some incredible gains. However, recently, that has been the very furthest thing from the actual result.
It is very hard to make a lot of money right now and I believe that with the way the market is acting that unless you are going long oil&gas stocks, or some form of the energy related commodity, you are just asking for a beating.
I am going to keep this analysis very short as I sure do not have a whole lot that needs to be talked about that I did not spend all day going over in the chat room. For those of you who would like to know what we discussed today in the room here is a free late-day (I can’t give all the $$$ info away for free) chat room transcipt. Enjoy the After-Hours chit chat :):
There WIll Be No Market Commetenary For Monday’s Stock Market Session
June 10, 2008 | 2 Comments
thee simply is not enough time to get this done tonight as I was busy all day with way too many errands. There was nothing new that I can make something out of today which was basically a pretty boring, yet volatile, intraday session.
I will be back tomorrow with a full commentary and apologize that today I think my Multiple Sclerosis is acting up. I keep falling asleep as I write this. But fear not, I will return tomorrow with a very long analysis, like I normally do. If you need some thing to read to know where we currently are then go back to the post last week and read it. ESPECIALLY if you have not read it already.
Once again, I believe that this low volume will have to work its way out until we actually get some heavy volume. But I think we will be waiting a while,
Friday’s Reversal Destroys The Euphoria From Thursday; I Did Not Have A Single Long Give A Full Sell Signal (There Were A Good Amount Of Partial Sells; But Zero Full Sells)
June 8, 2008 | Leave a Comment
There is no other way to describe Friday as uglier than ugly. When you have 4-losers-to-every-1-winner you can be sure that it was a very ugly day. That ugliness can be blamed on the unemployment jumping to 5.5% from 5.0% which was the biggest gain in 20 years and oil jumping almost $11 and a total of $16 (13% gain) in two days which was also the biggest gain in 25 years when they started keeping records of oil. Economist were expecting the unemployment to only increase to 5.1% so this was a LARGE miss. You can’t blame the market for doing what it did today after a miss of that magnitude, along with oil jumping 13% in two days.
However, as I will be doing quite often, as I write this I will try to interject some bullish points to the negative headlines. For instance, it could have been 10-losers-to-every-1-winner. But, actually, that would be bullish as it would show the crowd was extremely bearish and I would be looking to get very long very quickly. Still there is nothing good to say about a day when losers did beat winners by such a strong amount.
In All Honesty It Could Not Have Been A Worse Day, Following A Resumption Of An Uptrend, As We Had Today
June 6, 2008 | 4 Comments
There is no other way to spin today other than totally ugly. What is really funny is that a lot of my longs HELD UP!!! and are holding support. The big problem is that my largest positions DID THE WORST, while my smallest positions DID THE BEST. That is how my luck has been lately and what is funny is that this is actually a testament to my skill. Since I have no luck, the fact that I am even up over 10% this year is incredible. I would love to see what that number would be IF I ACTUALLY HAD SOME GOOD LUCK. Too bad I have none. Therefore, as soon as we get the signal that it is safe to buy stocks again, we immediately are met with the ugliest trading session since January. Today was horrible. But most of my longs are still holding support, so there is not much to do. I just will NOT be buying anything else and do plan on getting back to AT LEAST 25% cash. Still though, we are holding the key support areas. So this selling will have to be built on before I panic and dump my portfolio. But when you have a long like NOG and PDO, it sure makes today a lot easier to deal with. The fact other key large longs holding support give me hope this was a one time thing. But it still scared me to death. It scared me so much in fact I can say I am no longer a “cautious bull” and am now COMPLETELY “neutral with a evidence/charts bias of being bullish but a GUT “FEEL” bias toward being bearish.”
long: confusion
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Recent Posts
- Late Day Selloff On Lower Volume Shows The Bulls Are Not Ready To Run; A Test Of The Lows Might Be Needed To Get A Real Bounce
- Nice Rally Today Too Bad It Was On Below Average Volume
- Stocks Rally On Mixed Volume As Yet Another Day Of Insane Volatility Comes To An End
- If You Do Not Give Up, You Will Create Great Financial Wealth
- Stocks Resume Selloff As Distribution Day Rattles Investors Who Bought Last Weeks LAME Rally
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