9/29/08 A Day You Will Remember The REST Of Your Adult Life
September 30, 2008 | 2 Comments
There is not much to say here that has not been reiterated for OVER THREE MONTHS on this site. Not only were we short going into the selling but those not short were in cash. NO ONE and I mean NOT ONE SINGLE MEMBER!!!!! was caught long. NONE. Period. We use facts here and we stick with that. You can take your panic and your news and shove it. We deal with charts and the TRUTH. No speculation. JUST THE WAY IT SHOULD BE.
I have NOTHING to say that can not be summed up in this video; enjoy!:
Gold and Platinum Members get full size (correct screen resolution) and other parts when made that will not be made available to public.
Before We See What Happens This Week Let’s Look At Where We Are
September 29, 2008 | Leave a Comment
Thank you AUTHOR EGO for everything you did for me while I had an MS attack of my left index finger which you might not understand made it VERY HARD to type. It was not fun and makes you feel less of the man “you used to be.” So I want to thank him for his outstanding commentary. It was better than reading most of the pure “opinion” junk out there.
Here is the market wrap of where we are NOW for Monday (youtube version for non-subscribers; full version for subscribers and part two and three for subscribers):
Market Wrap for September 25th, Repeat After Me: “Capital Preservation”
September 26, 2008 | Leave a Comment
By Thursday’s closing bell, the S&P 500, DJIA and NYSE all finished at least 1.7% or higher on heavier volume than the previous session, which technically means we had ourselves a follow-through day. The Nasdaq lagged, however, as did the Nasdaq 100; as for the Russell 2000 and S&P 600 –well, both got just a fleeting glimpse of their 200 day moving averages before being turned back. And not only did the IBD 100 and 85-85 indexes underperform, volume actually came in lighter than the day before. The fact that institutional investors weren’t even remotely interested in snatching up shares of leading stocks does not exactly inspire confidence in this fledgling rally. “But, wait,” as they say, “there’s more….”
Spoiling the FTD party was the wave of selling that hit the market during the last two hours of trading, dragging the indexes well off the highs of the day. During the session, the NYSE had been up as high as 2.7%; the S&P 500, 2.9%; the Dow, 2.8%; and the Nasdaq, 2.6%. Also, the volume of every index, while higher than the previous day’s volume, was still below its average. Another red flag: there were just 13 stocks making new annual highs compared to 191 stocks making new lows. And the top five industry groups on this follow-through day: Media-Periodicals, Leisure-Photo Equip/Rel, Leisure Movies & Related, Oil & Gas-Intl Integrated and Banks-Foreign. Only one of those groups is ranked in the top half of IBD’s 197 Industry Groups and it is ranked 97th. “But, wait, there’s more….”
Durable goods dropped more than twice the initial estimates back in August, and new home sales fell far more than expected, hitting a 17 year low. The annual rate of new home sales plummeted 11.5% to 460,000, the lowest reading since January 1991. Bad, huh? “Well, wait, there’s more….”
As of this writing, futures are pointing to a rough start to the trading on Friday morning. It seems the talks concerning Treasury’s $700 billion bailout has hit a snag and are in danger of collapsing. Henry Paulson is said to have gotten down on one knee, begging Democrats who left to caucus not to “blow up” the legislation. Truly a surreal image. To make matters worse, RIMM missed earnings and the after-hours traders mercilessly pummeled the stock about the head and shoulders. This will surely add insult to injury to what is shaping up to be another volatile session. Never a dull moment, folks.
While there seems to be nothing but bad news and negativity, remember to keep emotions in check. Don’t get caught up in the hysterics of our beloved media; while exasperating, it serves a purpose. Now more than ever let the charts be your guide. It may very well get a lot worse, my friends, I’m not going to lie to you, but this I can guarantee: eventually the charts will come back. The whole world will be worn out and flabbergasted. The last thing they will want to think about is stocks. The charts, however, will tell a different story. They will reward those who waited on them. Just make sure you have the capital to take advantage of what you hear.
Repeat after me: “Capital Protection.”
A special Market Wrap brought to you by Author_Ego.
Stocks Try To Spark A FTD But By The EOD Selling Snuck Back In And The Futures Plumeted. (Hopefully I can get a free youtube up here by the bell but nothing is guarantted because of the time zone problems).
September 25, 2008 | Leave a Comment
Market Wrap Video For September 23rd And 24th (I am violently ill right now)
September 24, 2008 | 2 Comments
There will be no commentary for the 24th as I am still violently ill, my feet swelled up again, and my left index finger is number. So just enjoy these exceptional explanation of the current market clips and I hope that whets your appetite for now.
September 23rd video:
September 24th video:
Here Is The Video From Today’s Market up (Market Wrap Up From Author_Ego (John Ward)–Give him a TON of thanks as I could not get this done tonight without his help. Thank you John!!
September 22, 2008 | Leave a Comment
Well, if you were hoping for another wild ride on Monday, guess what, you were not disappointed. This market continues its schizophrenic behavior, my friends. An example of this is the Banks-Super Regional group. On Friday, 33% of the stocks in this group had hit a new 52-week high; on Monday, the group was down almost 11%. Forget about the reasons why, it just is what it is. Truth be told, if you’d slept through the past week, you’re probably much better off – for all the volatility, the Dow as of today was up a meager 0.9%; the S&P 500, 1.21%; the NYSE, 3.10%; meanwhile, the Nasdaq was down 0.04%. News wires will one day be full of apocalyptic headlines, optimistic and exuberant the next. For the CANSLIM trader, however, headlines should mean next to nothing. Only one thing should matter: what is the market saying?
Well, folks, it’s simply this: we find ourselves this morning at day four of the rally. We’ve had enormous gains on record volume and now a low volume though not insignificant failure at the 50 day moving average, which so happens to be trending down and is, of course, trending below the 200 day moving average. The Put/Call stands at 0.91. There were 39 New Highs to 97 New Lows. Take these facts for what they are. Will we get a day soon where we’re up over 2% on powerful volume? That’s anybody’s guess. However, what we haven’t had so far is this: new leadership. Where are the young, innovative companies with new products and explosive earnings that are forming proper bases and breaking out on strong volume? A quick glance at IBD’s leading indices (the IBD 85-85, IBD 100 and New America Index) will answer this question. All of these indexes are trapped beneath their 50 day moving averages and, lo and behold, their 50 day moving averages are below their 200 day moving averages. And these are the leading stocks in the market! This does not a bullish tale tell.
Stock Market Farts; Cash is King
September 22, 2008 | 2 Comments
Today certainly proves why cash is king and why it will continue to be king until we get a new bull market. For those who jumped on the bandwagon on Friday are now under water and are hurting from today’s sell off. This kind of trading, this type of market should be avoided by all those who do not have at least 5 years worth of successful trading under their belt. It is useless to try to day trade to only burn and churn your account. The government can not help and will not be able to curb this mess, it will only prolong it.
Cash is king, cash is king. Patience is the number one trait everyone must exercise, our members are surviving this market because they are in cash. We are avoiding this mess and making some gains and prepared for a new bull market. It may be months or years away but we are prepared for a new bull market. How can you be prepared when you are churning and burning your account in oblivion.
Enjoy
What A Crazy Market As Short Selling Is Being Eliminated In Some Corners, Day One Of Rally Attempts Are Hittng US, Some Longs Are Starting To Look Great, China Continues To Crash, And Mixed Signals Keep Being Thrown Around Everywhere!
September 18, 2008 | Leave a Comment
Well the destruction from yesterday that killed the rally the day before has been re-reversed with an amazing huge volume rally in every index hitting the USA bourses. This was a HELL OF A SURPRISE to yours truly but is anything really ever a real surprise to me? No. I am ready for anything and all my studying and analysis of the stock market via charts has allowed me to be ready for anything and everything a stock market that can be thrown at us. Now, while many of you will declare a bottom to the market. Many of you will be much wiser and wait for what we fundamentalist/technicians call a FTD (follow-through day).
So Much For That “Bottom” As Stocks Crash For The Second Day In Three Sessions; Never Buy Stocks In Downtrends
September 18, 2008 | Leave a Comment
Once again, there was too much to go over with the website and all the shorts that I had to deeply study if they were to going to be good shorts or if they were too extended to be a good short. Obviously, the majority of the shorts that were in the scans still have something not either right with them or they have already been taken out to the woodshed and chopped up to bits.
Sadly, for those that think we have seen enough downside, I hate to tell you but there is not a single sector leading right now. there were a LOT of medical stocks that were showing up in very bullish chart patterns but most of them decided to end their hot patterns today, like UTHR NPSP AMGN and DNA. The destruction in these charts now leaves almost nothing out there looking good except for small regional banks. These banks are not the greatest longs as they are known as better longs in bear markets that are long and drawn out. So the fact that they have moved up to the front of the top sectors list is not that bullish at all.
I have been saying it since the October top that this is a bear market. Back in January and February a couple of hardheaded JERKS tried attacking me and my members (without having their facts straight) and did not realize how much money we made on the long side from 2003-2007. Sadly for them they started recommending to me that I “load up” on MS, WM, AIG, LEH, GS, UBS, and all of these other banks that are getting destroyed like BAC. All I have to say for those fools that attacked me so viscously is “that I told you so.” “I TOLD YOU SO.”
Today Is What We Technicians/Fundamentalist Call Day One Of A Rally Attempt; But The Quality Of Leadership And Ability To Take The 50 And 200 DMA Will Determine If This Is Your “Bottom” Or Not.
September 16, 2008 | 1 Comment
Tuesday was a wild session that can be summed up as bullish and bearish.
Setting it up as bearish was the fact that in the first hour the indexes opened down 1% to 1.6% on the Nasdaq scaring weak bulls that tried to go long this bounce even more. However, after the opening it was all better from there as a lot of people that I have a feeling expected a lot of further prices. But after a down 3.5% to 5% day in one day, it is pretty rare to see such a day like yesterday followed up by another big down day so I think some people were expecting more than what they got.
Instead what appeared was a nice change of pace for the very first time since the selloff started. Medical stocks have obviously been setting up as a better part of the economy to move into and the fact that three to four names came out with very strong stock patterns with some setting up with strong fundamentals made us very happy. Another stock was a Tobacco company that helps lead you to the Medical arena as it continued to go up today with max green BOP making it a new small long.
Overall while I see a ton of the old leaders like AAPL, RIMM, FSLR, and most of the old past big winners like the manufacturing, steel, ag, alt energy, oil and gas, and solar stocks just get pounded, I am still seeing quite a few stock show up in my long scans that ID stock above the price above the 50 DMA with the 50 DMA over the 200 DMA. This is great! I mean it was not like there were only 35 stocks in the scan today but maybe due to the huge move in the volume on the indexes as the indexes did put in “day one” of a new rally attempt the volume was so ferocious and the stocks so ready to go up after so much work done. At the end of the day I had 57 stocks in my 100k avg. volume scan, that is up and volume is just above the 50 dva, with BOP green. That is a lot of stocks–57; in the other scan that deals with 10k to 99.99k there were 32. So there are some stocks out there holding up while the other scan had a surprising 32 stocks in it. Very nice and this was definitely caused by the volume.
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