Stocks Follow-Through On Thursday’s Selloff With A Distribution Day; Our New Longs And Our New Short All Did Well For Us This Week!
January 31, 2009 | Comments Off
Stocks sold off heavily Friday finally following-through to the downside after a previous down session. There have been a few times this month that the market looked like it wanted to breakdown hard. However, it was always followed by support from oversold laggards that remained up while C and BAC failed previous supports. However, the lack of leaders in the current rally attempt is finally giving way to a weak market and that is why I have been saying to either quickly take your gains on longs or better yet to safely stay in cash, during this past rally.
The biggest problem I have had the entire rally attempt off the November lows is that leading stocks with leading fundamentals in leading industries were not leading the market higher. Instead it was oversold laggards that have had the living life beaten out of them. The fact that these laggards led the way higher was my clue to tread carefully in this market and not get too excited about a possible rally holding any time soon.
Instead it is the shorts that have continued to hold up (err…down) while this low-volume rally went on the past few months. Well it really wasn’t even a rally as the market has gone no where the past three months. Instead, while the market went nowhere, stocks broke down from nice patterns and current shorts continued to trend barely higher on low volume. This was the clearest “tell” that bears were still right, even in the short uptrend and that longs were at best “hopeful” that the rally could last longer than it appears that it is.
General Stock Market Indexes Fail, Once Again, At The 50 Day Moving Averages; Despite The Selloff I Still Have 3 New Longs And 1 New Short, Proving It’s A Stock Pickers Market
January 29, 2009 | Comments Off
There were three new longs and one new short tonight that I really went into detail explaining to my subscribers in the new videos section. I believe they needed to know why these stocks are longs and shorts, how much money they should put in each one, and I also went over the reward/risk ratio aspect of the stocks, making sure they were on point to what I am looking for for a future BIG WINNER. The time I spent with subscribers today going over today’s market was a lot of fun but unfortunately I do have a small headache (probably from being on the computer too much) and after all the work I put into the forums, longs, shorts, videos, chat room, and charts I am pretty burned out and am going to skip doing commentary tonight. I don’t think I have skipped making one of these in a LONG TIME so I think I deserve a night off. Especially considering the general market is flat-lining the past three months. The free general market video should have enough information in it to have you well prepared for Friday’s session.
FREE YOUTUBE VIDEO:
Stocks Put In A Technical Follow-Through But It Wasn’t Leading Stocks Taking Us Higher; Old Laggards Get A Big Bid As Market Relieves Oversold Condition
January 28, 2009 | Comments Off
Today’s rally in all the general stock market indexes was very exciting to see on the surface, I must say. Sadly, the truth is, once you get past the overall general numbers of a 2.5% to 3.5% gain on the market indexes, you will see that underneath things are not as nice looking.
I want to say that while I see a lot of problems with this rally this does not mean that if a beautiful long setup came along that I would not take it. I am long eight stocks. So obviously I am not “biased” to the bear side or the bull side. I am just following the trend. The big trend is down, the intermediate trend is down, the sub-intermediate trend is flat, and the short-term trend is definitely up for right now.
My biggest problem with today’s gains are the exact same problems I found with the rally attempts back in March, July, late-September, October, and even recently in November. Those problems are that the leaders are not leading the market higher it is instead the oversold laggards that make up a big percentage of the general market indexes that are taking the market higher. That is not a problem, necessarily. The problem is that every time these HORRIBLE PAST-LEADING NOW-SUCKING stocks bounce I am told by every HORRIBLE and truthfully FOOLISH “professional” that it is time to buy these bargains because I will not get a chance to get them at a lower price. Right guys, just like in March 2008 and May 2000. Almost a full eight years later and yet the same HORRIBLE analysis.
Stocks Rally On Low Volume But The Market Is Still Going Nowhere Fast
January 27, 2009 | Comments Off
There is almost no point in wasting your time today with commentary so I guess I will cut to the heart of the matter and tell you what we need to do right now since the market is not doing anything (10/27/08 to 1/27/09: Nasdaq -0.07%).
I know that the market was up around 1% on all indexes today but that has just put it basically where it was last week and three months ago. The simple fact is that this market is going nowhere any time soon. If it does break up or down, I am pretty sure that all those daytraders that have shown up recently will pay the price. But until the price of the indexes can start moving higher or lower on higher volume, daytrading just might be the right play for right now.
Or perhaps the wiser and more sophisticated way of approaching this market right now would be to hold a high level of cash and wait for the perfect moment to put the money to work on the short or long side. I don’t understand why people feel that activity is the equivalent to making money. You know how I figure out if a trader is smart or not? By how little they trade.
A Semi-Volatile Dull Intraday Range Ends With Stock Indexes Higher On Lower Volume
January 26, 2009 | Comments Off
The market sure has been doing its best nothing lately as the indexes all closed slightly higher today on lower volume. That puts the market around where it was five days ago. That means that in the short-term the market is going nowhere fast. This has been the M.O. for the market for the past three months actually and until it changes I believe it is safe to assume more continued boring market action.
What will change this is volume and a break out of this range. Right now, I have both shorts and longs working for me. Since having five longs, I now have eight and they are all doing well, so far. The same goes for shorts as last week I took eight shorts with seven of them so far working and one just having to be covered completely today. This means that my picks are working on both sides to a small degree and since neither side is producing large gains it makes it hard to tell where the market might want to go next.
The best we can do is look at the market from where it has come from to get a sense of where it might be going. Since last year, the market has been in a long-term and intermediate term downtrend. However, in the past three months (sub-intermediate) the trend has been flat basically from 10/27 to 1/26 with the NYSE moving up .9% during that time. The same goes for the short-term the past week as markets are up and down anywhere between .5% and 1%.
Stock Indexes End The Day Mixed But Finish Down On Higher Volume For The Week
January 24, 2009 | Comments Off
A weak start to Friday’s session had the feeling of a painful day to come. However, the market found its lows near the opening and managed a nice rally most of the day, until the last couple of hours. All indexes were green at one point in the day but a decent pullback that was followed by a little EOD rally kept the DJIA from closing green. Overall it was yet another bullish session preceded by a negative session.
That has been the pattern since last week when the market broke down away from the 50 day moving average on January 14th. Following that break down, stocks bounced back the next two days on higher volume. This was not was supposed to happen according to textbook stock movements.
Normally, when the market breaks away like that from a key moving average and many “attempted leading” stocks have big reversals, you usually do not see a halt in the decline so quickly. So after those two days of prices holding it then appeared that the market might be able to turn and give us the low volume uptrend we are waiting for so we can load up our shorts when the market fails at the 200 day moving average. So no big deal. We have a new plan.
Market Gives Back Some Of Yesterday’s Gains As The 50 Day Moving Average Continues To Be A Tough Resistance Point For This Market
January 22, 2009 | Comments Off
I think it is fair to say that today was a very wild intraday wild for those that follow the market intraday. The market opened flat on the Nassy and SP 500 but gapped lower for the DJIA setting a negative tone in the AM. That was confirmed as stocks fell, making for an ugly morning, until around noon.
That is when stock roared back and came back to green for the Nassy and SP 500. However, the DJIA was still negative showing its negative divergence. Before the close, sadly for those looking for a bottom, the bulls could not hold on to the gains and the market closed in the red across the board.
While it was not a very bearish session, the damage was still done as the market failed to follow through on yesterday’s gains just like on Monday when it failed the attempted reversal on Thursday and Friday. This is not the action that you normally would like to see in a market possibly putting in a low. Instead this is the action of a market ready to continue on its way lower. How can we judge what the markets next move will be? Well we can do that by looking at the index action and current stocks.
Yesterday’s Nasty Breakdown Was Quickly Met With Some Bullish Intraday Support; Despite Today’s Gains, The Market Still Looks Very Weak
January 21, 2009 | Comments Off
Stocks put in a very nice intraday reversal off the lows today that sent all the indexes roaring toward their HOD as most indexes only closed just a tad off the HOD level. Volume also came in heavier on both exchanges giving some hope to bulls that another breakdown might get some support.
However, if you remember just a few days ago, we had the almost exact situation. Last week, on Wednesday it looked like the market was ready to crack wide open and go to new lows. But on Thursday and Friday, the general market indexes managed to contain the downside and actually closed in the green on higher volume. That seemed all right and well until Tuesday.
On Tuesday, the stock market cracked opened again on mixed volume with a lot of stocks that were holding up finally breaking down. So that breakdown was a move that typically leads to the market opening wide up and breaking down. This means that shorts should be ready to make a lot of money. Especially with us having seven new shorts. However, that did not happen.
The Selloff Gains Steam On All Indexes, With The NYSE Selling Off On Higher Volume; Long Dollar, Long Gold, And Short Past Leaders (AAPL, POT, CETV…) = Big Profits
January 20, 2009 | Comments Off
Stocks sold off hard today as most indexes fell between 4% and 6% with volume higher on the NYSE but lower on the Nasdaq. However, the lower volume didn’t matter as it was still above average and the breakaway from the 50 day moving average on the NYSE and Nasdaq is signaling to us that the short term rally that did appear like it was about to start will not start. This is probably disappointing for bulls but they can’t be that shocked because as we have gone along the past seven days the charts have continually gotten worse.
About six days ago we had 13 small long positions and going into today we only had 5 long positions. All of those remain small since the trend is still very down. And that was proven to be a smart move today as the market cracked wide open thus creating a little bit of damage to our current longs and our current shorts. However, the damage to the shorts is obviously a good thing as it has given us a nice day of profits when most “bottom fishers” just lost more money than what they already lost in 2008 alone. The trend is your friend everyone. Please, never fight it! So many want to buy the bargains and have been doing this the entire way into the pullback. This has obviously been the wrong play and will continue to be the wrong play for as long as we are moving lower on the long-term trend, the intermediate term trend, the sub-intermediate trend, and the short-trend.
There is one thing very much for sure!! and that is that the long side is still not working. Those that think going long now are still clearly missing where the big money is being made. The short side. Until this entire stock market can actually start to rally on very strong volume and pullback on low volume which then unleashes “very beautiful max green BOP filled” and “CANSLIM quality” stocks the only right side will continue to be the short side.
The Most Important Video You Will Watch This Month
January 18, 2009 | Comments Off
I never do this and in around the four years I have been posting on the internet I have never posted a video from another source. However, I believe I have watched a video that is a MUST WATCH RIGHT NOW for everyone out there. If you are a reader of this site, then this video is meant for you. Expect the best from yourself however….PREPARE FOR THE WORST. I don’t drink Kool-Aid and if you don’t either you MUST watch this video. To not be prepared for what IS going to happen is suicide.
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