Obama’s Budget Proposal Frieghtens the Market Squashing Early Morning Stock Gains
February 27, 2009 | Comments Off
by Market Speculator
“A wise and frugal government, which shall leave men free to regulate their own pursuits of industry and improvement, and shall not take from the mouth of labor the bread it has earned – this is the sum of good government.” – Thomas Jefferson
Looking across the blogosphere and media outlets one might have expected a relief rally. Logic and indicators pointed to an oversold market. Thursday’s action began positive, traders were getting behind the idea of we could rally. Obama’s budget proposal was set to be released during the morning hours of the market. During the 2008 Presidential Campaign Obama pledged to reduce the operating budget deficit; traders were expecting to see Obama to adhere to his campaign promise. However, upon the release of the budget the market began to sell off. There were no improvements to the budget deficit, but it was ballooned to a tune of $1.75 TRILLION dollars. In addition to the budget deficit the proposal ATTACKS healthcare providers effectively squashing future profit potential. The market is not to be argued with, it is foreshadowing troubled times its best we pay attention.
In Tuesday’s market wrap I mentioned the Equity Put/Call ratio and how it was signalling complacency. It continues, the equity put/call remains near lows as the market remains near its lows. Alongside the put/call ratio the VIX index is showing how the selling is not sparking any FEAR in the market. Even short term bottoms will have these indicators showing SOME level of fear. Not this time, sellers are complacent and it shows there is high level of hope that this market rallies in the near term. If we are able to lift off the lows it will be a weak move.
Stocks Continue To Fall This Time On Ligher Volume; The Shorts Are Still The Winners And Have Been All Year Long
February 27, 2009 | Comments Off
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Top longs/(shorts) with TOTAL returns making me money TODAY: ANCI 59% (TITN 56% GTIV 19% CPRT 23% GGB 64% CEO 31% OKE 48% APD 49% ARB 73% WRB 15% K 22% LLL 25% RDK 33% PG 23% RIMM 60% MCY 32% AMSG 37% PLCE 33% SPG 60% IPHS 51% CYT 70% SDA 80% PRGO 31% FSYS 17% CASY 30% CEDC 86% AAPL 44% AMX 53% CETV 93%)
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Two Very Nice New Longs On Today’s Down Day May Hint To An Oversold Bounce; The Trend Is Still Down, Down, Down, Down
February 26, 2009 | Comments Off
Overall it was a negative day, of course, with the markets down around a little over 1%. However, the SP 600 lost almost 2.5% and the IBD 100 full of leading stocks fell 1.4% showing that the leading stocks and small-cap stocks that usually lead new bull markets. So the fact that they weaken worse than the overall market when people are talking about a supposed bottom really leaves me scratching my head.
There is some good news for bulls however in that, for the first time since this downtrend got started, I actually had a significant down day with zero new possible shorts and two new longs. Not only that one long is a CANSLIM quality champ and the other is in the leading mining-gold/silver stocks industry. So these two championship longs showing up in a day where the market loses over 1% is pretty impressive. However, honestly, without a ton of volume in the market, the gains are not “really” that impressive. It is what it is.
If this was a raging bull market like 1995, 1998, 1999, and 2003 that I have witnessed or participated in, I would have no problem jumping up and down saying GET LONG THIS STOCK IN BULK as the odds would be well in our favor. Right now, it should be very obvious to all of those out there, besides the few crazy daytraders that can actually trade this market and make money ON A CONSISTENT BASIS–this one day lucky stuff doesn’t cut it with me and I will never take you one day wonders seriously. It is the long term that will ALWAYS count–most investors should be fully in cash or have only small long gold or small short the market positions.
Stocks Stage Rebound as Bernanke Insists the United States Banking System is Sound and a Possible Recovery for 2010
February 25, 2009 | Comments Off
Volume jumps as oversold conditions and Ben Bernanke help lift stocks from multi-year lows.
by Market Speculator
It was coming sooner or later, stocks stage a big gain on higher volume. Stocks were able to relieve the massive selling pressure from the prior 6 trading sessions. Bank nationalization and economic fears were set aside for the day as Ben Bernanke hinted at a possible economic rebound in the year 2010. Unfortunately, beaten up stocks and old leaders were amongst the stocks that lead the market higher. Banks and oil stocks, old leaders were the stocks that propped up the market. We are now entering Day #3 of an attempted rally, we’ll see if the market can manage following through.
One of the most interesting market internal is the Equity Put/Call ratio. Monday as we closed on multi-year lows the put/call ratio fell suggesting selling was complacent. Normally, as you hit multi-year lows the put/call ratio should be rising in dramatic fashion. Not so, for this market. It is quite telling that there is a lack of fear when hit multi-year lows and we must be aware of the fact.
Market Rallies On Higher Volume But The Quality Isn’t There And I Didn’t Have A SINGLE Full Cover; Something Is Fishy About The Bounce
February 25, 2009 | Comments Off
Market Speculator will post full commentary and youtube free viewers I apologize but something is wrong with youtube right now uploading my video. Subscribers you know where you may find it. But this will be updated in the AM by Market Speculator (Chris Maye). He knows how I think (scary for him and I do apologize) and will know what to post here that I would post. The bottom line is “don’t count your chickens before your eggs hatch, bulls.” CASH IS KING!!! ESPECIALLY IN THIS MARKET! Don’t force a single thing. Eventually I will be listing 5 new longs a night every week in the future. Right now, only a JERK and SELFLESS PROMOTER would be telling you to go long or short stocks here. This is the DANGER zone. If there has EVER been a time to be in cash, it is now. YOU HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO CATCH THE NEW BULL MARKET IF WE DO TURN. Those that play the bottom WILL NOT outperform my winning stock selections. Bottom line. Market Speculator will be in the morning.
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Ugly Day For The Stock Market Equals A Big Money Making Day For BigWaveTrading.com; Gold, Silver, Platinum, and Shorts
February 23, 2009 | Comments Off
Today was sure one ugly day for the market as indexes fell hard across the board. About the only thing positive you can say is that volume was lighter. However, when stocks are falling almost 4% I am not sure volume is that important.
What is important is that the market is proving those that were patient and held shorts while the low volume rally occurred were right. I now have many many many shorts up over 50% in short amounts of time along with new shorts already up 15%+ in many issues. What makes this EVEN BETTER is that gold stocks and the commodities of gold, silver, and platinum are rocking it. Not only that, but the rest is in cash sitting safely ready to pounce on the next round of leaders if and when they setup.
Basically I would have to say that Friday and Monday have been home runs for yours truly and I have almost already returned my total return for last year. This tells me that the market is getting some sense back with it, even if it is not rewarding leading growth-stock investors yet. It is still rewarding those that know how to get long the right leading stocks at the right time. Whoever said you can’t time the market must not have EVER learned about CANSLIM.
Stocks End The Week The Way They Started With Another Selloff; Long Gold/Silver/Platinum + Short Stocks = Big Profits In This Market
February 20, 2009 | Comments Off
Stocks ended the week the way that they started with all indexes closing down across the board with indexes down anywhere from .1% on the Nasdaq to down 1.6% on the NYSE. The bad news about the losses, today, is that the NYSE and SP-500 (-1.1%) suffered a clear distribution day. The DJIA had a huge distribution day but the bullish intraday reversal and the huge level of volume would appear to be more short-term bullish for me. Why? Because the DJIA has been down 20 of 31 days before today’s huge volume down day’s intraday bullish reversal. Either way technically they are distribution days but when using “art” with “science” it is clear to see today’s losses were not vicious.
What is more problematic is that the longs scans looked worse than only a 1% down day. That just tells me that the market probably is in no mood to rally any time soon and this is probably why we can not find ANY “hottie” chart patterns or high quality CANSLIM stocks setting up in proper patterns with growing fundamentals. The market has turned down on the micro and macro and it will take time to get these stocks growing again. It will even take longer if we go down the road to socialism. If we take a track that has proven to NEVER EVER work in the history of the world, then it might be safe to say the “hottie” stocks might not setup. If that is the case, we will just keep focusing on our shorts in the market and our gold/silver/platinum longs which will make us excellent money in a market like that.
DJIA Hits A New Six-Year Closing Low; Why Do More People Try To Be Cute And GUESS Bottoms Than Follow The Trend To Make More Money With A Smart Cut Loss Strategy?
February 19, 2009 | Comments Off
Stocks were slightly down across the board, besides the DJIA which was up a tiny 0.04%, and the move lower came with higher volume on the NYSE and lower volume on the Nasdaq. The higher volume and near 1% drop for the NYSE and SP 500 were distribution days that only add to the pressure this market has recently come under in the short-term.
The losses while not huge was still enough to tell me that the market is not looking at the recent selloff as a capitulation move and is instead looking at it as a regular move in a steady long-term downtrend. If we would have had a major rally I would say that the market might be trying to hammer out a low. But with the DJIA closing at a new six-year low with the other indexes close to new lows it appears that the safe side is the short side as very few stocks are moving higher.
More proof of that comes with my own long holdings. While my two Gold longs are doing well (biggest long positions in my portfolios), the rest of my tiny longs are not, unless it is a pasta company or an education company. Five of my eight longs could be full cuts if they have just one more down day over 1%. That shows you have hard to impossible it is to be long this market. Unless it is gold or VERY SELECT medical or pasta company, your chances of making money on the long side are still very small.
Stocks Have A Wild Intraday Session But Close Basically Mixed To Flat; Once Again, The Bulls Should Be Happy That Yesterday’s Selloff Did Not Lead To More Selling
February 19, 2009 | Comments Off
Stocks were mixed today with lower volume on the NYSE and the Nasdaq. Overall stock indexes leaned to the downside but the DJIA was up 0.04% today showing itself as the diamond in the rough. The worst index was the SP 600 falling 1.1%. Despite the tiny losses today I would have to say that this has been another positive ‘day-after’ following another very bearish market session. We have seen the market fall at least 3% in at least five-sessions since 2009. Any of those selloffs on heavier volume could have broken into a big downtrend. However, after every nasty selloff we are seeing some sort of minor support coming into the markets.
Now this support is not on heavy volume and leading/hot! stocks are still not participating by setting up in proper bases with strong fundamentals that are followed by big breakouts on strong volume. While these stocks continue to not show up it is clear that the market is not ready to trend up or down in a very harsh momentum fashion.
Stock Market Indexes Breakdown On Heavy Volume Throwing Every Index Into A Downtrend; Our Gold Longs And Our Shorts Allowed Us To CLEAN UP On Tuesday!
February 18, 2009 | Comments Off
It was a very ugly day for the stock market today but I have to admit that me and my subscribers were very happy as not only did 37 of our 39 shorts make money but our two biggest gold positions were up 9% and 3%+ today. So it is safe to say today was a very bullish day for subscribers and all I have to say is that IT USED TO ALWAYS BE LIKE THIS from 1996-2007. Only recently has things been turned upside down and even then our shorts are doing WONDERFUL proving that the trend will FOREVER be your BEST friend.
The one problem I have had with the downtrend is that unlike the 1997 pullback, 1998 pullback, or the 2000-2002 bear market, this is the first time (besides the March to May period in 2008 which was lame!!) where I have seen the market go so long without rewarding momentum/growth investors with at least a few “hot” stocks where they buck the major downtrend (like CRUS in 2000 or GNSS in 2001–both tech related). This downturn has been so harsh and has hit the whole macro-economy that NO stock is avoiding the downturn. There are a few but compared to any other year I have been doing this it is PATHETIC! Luckily, right now, stem-cell, pasta, and gold all have some momentum and these areas could still make us money if the market doesn’t breakdown too much more. However, if the market falls apart, you can kiss these speculative leaders (stem cells) and real leaders (gold) goodnight.
It is possible gold, silver, and platinum stocks can do well. However, I think we need to have some better counter-trend rallies to really get any upside momentum that will allow us to make the 100%+ gains that I was used to getting before 2008 hit us. Gold, silver, and platinum might do well if the world doesn’t feel safe buying our debt anymore but the actual stocks on the exchange will still be at the whims of the buyers (demand) and sellers (supply) forces of the market. Gold will replace the Dollar in some countries holdings as they diversify but I doubt those same countries will buy AEM, NEM, GG, ABX, or GOLD instead of the actual bullion.
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