A Really Strong Rally Loses Some Steam Into The Close But Still All Indexes Closed Higher On Higher Volume Which Is Always Nice To See; Leaders Are Lagging But Our Longs Are Still Doing Very Well
March 31, 2009 | Comments Off
It was a very bullish session from the open to the highs of the day. However, before the market could end at the highs, it decided to have a pretty big pullback into the close. The good news is that stocks still finished higher than where they opened and compared to the day before all still put in a 1%+ gain on volume higher than the day before. I don’t think you can ask for more, after two nasty days of selling. The good news behind the selling was the below average volume on the selloff. That is always a positive.
More of a positive during the pullback and after today’s up session are the stocks we are watching to go long. Besides one long that we have that we need to fully sell with a small loss, the rest of the stocks we are long still look anywhere from good to great (which is a HUGE change over the past 1 1/2 years) and there are a lot of stocks setting up in nice bases in speculative names and CANSLIM quality names.
That makes this current uptrend the NICEST uptrend, so far, since the selloff started in October 2007 (never forget I made the “sell all your mutual funds/stocks” warning in November 2007) and that is a great positive for our methodology which focuses on holding stocks for the full BIG WAVE of an uptrend or downtrend. We are looking for doubles to home runs, not singles, sorry. That means swing trading and intraday trading are not something that I specialize in because neither one of those strategies can give you the kind of gains that I produced in market uptrends with the downtrends combined. I am sure by the time I am 40 (another 10 years) things will be going very well for me. That is unless the economy collapses, then it will not be good for anyone.
Stocks Selloff On Lower Volume But The NYSE Throws Up A Baby Distribution Day; Leaders Held In Very Well For The Ugly Action Today
March 30, 2009 | Comments Off
It was a negative session across the board on Monday and there was no problem finding a scape goat for all the selling. However, the scape goat might be true as wall-street reacts to the poor decision of the White House to ax the CEO of GM. No matter how you think GM could have done things differently, I ask you to dare challenge the UAW and see how well you could run a business. In the old days Unions were something you could be proud of to be a member. But now when I hear anyone mention they are a member of a Union, I cringe.
No matter what I think, as it is only an opinion and opinions do not matter in the stock market. However, it does look like the market voted along with me on how it feels about this decision. Some of the blame was also placed on Geithner’s feet and to be honest we will be doing a lot more of that as we watch this weasel trash the free markets with more government intervention and Fed mismanagement. For a treasury secretary I am starting to think that nothing good is EVER going to come from this man. That my friends is not a vote of confidence for the US markets.
I also ask you to consider this. I am not a smart man. I am just really good at investing/trading stocks and making money and then hiring individuals to help me run a profitable business. Now, let’s say I didn’t invest in stocks but instead, I don’t know, made toys. Do you think I would DARE think of opening a factory in the USA? If someone like me wouldn’t open a business, who has no clue how to run one yet is wise enough to know he would be under severe government regulations for supplying toys, why would a successful enterpeneur think any differently? I think it is obvious to everyone who can look at a simple stock market chart that China is clearly the “hotbed” of growth in the “new” economy (you know that thing the USA used to have).
Live Chat with Market Speculator and Author_Ego TONIGHT!
March 29, 2009 | Comments Off
Chat with me tonight from 9pm-11pm EST. I will post a link once the room is open. You will be able to submit questions you may have about the market.
Looking forward to the chat!
***Thank you for joining our live chat! We had some success! We’ll certainly be doing it again next week. Please make sure you check back in daily for commentary and next Sunday for another session of our live chat.***
Despite Selloff, Volume Was Lower And My Longs Did Well With One Up 13%; All Stock Indexes End The Week Higher, For The Third Week In-A-Row
March 27, 2009 | Comments Off
Stocks ended the week on a sour note with the Nasdaq falling, the SP 500 dropping, the DJIA falling, and the SP 600 lagging with a xxx loss. The good news on Friday’s selloff comes on two fronts. First of all, volume was lower on every exchange which is comfort to those who have turned bullish. Second, leading stocks in leading sectors in the IBD 100 and IBD 85-85 did not lead the market lower. If that would have happened that would have been another negative on top of the fact that leading indexes are not leading this market higher. Instead the Nasdaq, SP 600, and Russell 2000 are leading the way higher. While that is a positive, it is not a positive that the IBD 100 and IBD 85-85 are not up the 25%-or-so that those leading indexes are up from the March lows.
If this is going to change it will need to change soon as every bull market that has lasted any length of time has always shown leading stocks leading the way higher. When you don’t have this, you can be sure that the market is not going to last very long in an uptrend. However, anything is possible, after the market we were treated to in 2008, I guess. But history shows that leading stocks are one of the most important elements a market needs for lasting gains. What is the other element? If you guessed volume, you are correct.
Very Bullish Day Ends With Indexes Higher On Higher Volume; I Am Starting To See A Lot Of Nice Charts But The IBD 100 (Leading Stocks Index) Continues To Lag The Market
March 26, 2009 | Comments Off
Thursday was a fantastic day for the stock market as indexes rallied anywhere from 2% to 4% on higher volume. The move today came on the back of an incredible close yesterday which saw the market turn in the last hour and go from a possible red close to a rally of around .8% to 2.2% on the indexes. While the rally was very impressive in the last hour, Wednesday, the best part was that the late rally came with leading stocks leading the way. Earlier in the morning that day it was lagging stocks that were leading the way. The sudden change in the last hour, along with the big price gain on big volume, was very bullish and definitely a change for the better.
Well that change continued today as the market rallied higher all day-though it was choppy-on higher volume. The best part about today’s rally, once again, is that I see a lot of nice high-quality stocks trying to setup and do something positive. That includes another three new longs this morning, with two of them being CANSLIM quality. This is now the second day in-a-row with two CANSLIM longs and I have to be honest I can not remember the last time we had two CANSLIM longs in the same day WITH THE MARKET IN AN UPTREND. I know it has been a real long time. So this is definitely good.
A Very Bullish Last Hour With An Extremely Bullish Last Five Minutes Helped Lift Stocks Higher On Higher Volume
March 25, 2009 | Comments Off
Watching the market intraday you would have been quite disappointed if you had left your desk at 2pm and did not return. The market was racing higher throughout most of the morning and volume was running along with it. Such a strong push with volume was encouraging, but it stalled and began to roll over showing signs of major weakness. By 2pm the market had slid into negative territory and heading straight for an awful and damaging distribution. That wasn’t to be the case, stocks were able to find footing and make a stand at the end of the day notching a day of accumulation. A very positive day indeed.
Aside from the market notching a bullish intraday reversal on favorable volume the NH vs NL ratio has been positive for the past 3 days. Amazing, this ratio has not seen positive territory in QUITE SOME TIME! Whether or not this is a Bull run in a secular Bear market we still could see hefty gains. The NH/NL ratio is signalling that we may have something behind this move.
A Boring Session Ends With Stock Market Indexes Selling Off On Lower Volume; Why Do People Trust The Government More Than Themselves (I’ll Answer That In My Video)?
March 24, 2009 | Comments Off
I will not be doing commentary today as I have busted my tail off for my subscribers in the paid area. If you want to know my outlook on the market check out the longs and shorts section, along with my videos, if you are a subscriber. If you are just visiting, make sure you watch my past two or three videos on YouTube, so you know where I stand on this market.
Chris M. (Market Speculator) stock market commentary for BigWaveTrading.com is below the YouTube video.
FREE YOUTUBE VIDEO:
If you haven’t taken a look at Josh’s free video on YouTube it is a must see. Onto the market.
The Biggest Rallies Come In Bear Markets; Stocks Rally Big On Lower Volume With Leading Stocks Lagging Once Again
March 24, 2009 | Comments Off
It was a very bullish session as the Nasdaq rallied 6.8% and the SP 500 rallied 7.1%. The bad part, which really is a bad part, is that volume was lower than the levels on Friday. Now, I know some of you have mentioned that volume was skewed by options-expiration. OK, let’s say that it is and we can’t use Friday. Well then that means we need to compare it to Thursday. If you do that, you get the same result. Volume was lower than the last options-expiration session and the last regular market session. So today was bullish on the outside but not bullish on the inside.
More evidence of this can be seen in top stocks. If we use the IBD 100 as the proxy for leading stocks (which I always have) we can see that ONCE AGAIN on a big rally in the market the IBD 100 lagged. Today the IBD 100 managed to rally only 3.5%. Now while that might sound good to you, you have to realize that back in 2003 (around the time this index started existing) leading stocks were outperforming the overall market. Not only that but volume was heavier on the days where stocks rallied than on the days when stocks fell. Right now, stocks continue to selloff on heavier volume and rally on lower volume.
Back in 2002 and 2003 you can clearly see that the market did not have an accumulation day in the rally attempt where the price was higher than 5.1%!!!!!!! While new investors might not understand this, experienced investors should. You see, when the market rallies like it did today and did to start the rally, just like EVERY OTHER RALLY IN A BEAR MARKET, you have a situation where stocks are so oversold that just a little bit of real buying kicks off a massive rally. That in turn then causes weak shorts to panic and cover into a market where most sellers are simply waiting to sell at higher prices. That allows the early rally attempts in a bear market to provide gains like 6%, 7%, or even 15% like in 2001 (I was there!).
Stocks Run Into Resistance Right At The 50 Day Moving Average As Stocks Selloff On Options Expiration-Skewed Higher Volume
March 21, 2009 | Comments Off
I made a whopping six videos for my subscribers this weekend and had a very active weekend myself. Therefore this commentary is going to be sweet and to the point with more ‘notes’ than an actual column. If you really want to know what I am thinking, how we are positioning ourselves to keep making money in a market where almost EVERYONE I know is losing money, then you will need to watch the six videos. The good news about the videos is that they are not time sensitive to before the opening bell, besides the first two. So you don’t have to watch all of them before the open or miss the whole point. They will be good for days to come.
As for the market. About all I have to say, after Friday came to a close, is of course! This is what socialism does to stock markets. Stock markets do not react well to unfavorable business climates and that is exactly what this administration and Fed is doing by showing us how irresponsible they are. It is like they don’t want the bad things to happen now, because IT IS ON THEIR SHIFT. You know, if it happens later, instead of today, guess who I am going to blame? Not the next guy. THE WHOLE GROUP OF INCOMPETENT POLITICANS AND ELECTED FED HEADS THAT ARE DESTROYING THIS ONCE GREAT NATION. Ronald Reagan, John F. Kennedy, Abraham Lincoln, Thomas Jefferson, and George Washington have all not rolled over in their graves.
Stock Indexes Pullback, In A Tight Intraday Range, On Lower Volume; Gold, Silver, And Platinum Are The Clear Winners Of An INSANE Fed/Congress!
March 19, 2009 | Comments Off
There was not enough intraday action on the indexes yesterday to warrant a big long commentary like I posted last night. Therefore, I will keep this short so you can focus on the video and subscribers can look and study the two new longs and one stock we are adding to.
Saying this, one of our new longs is another Gold stock which just goes to show you how strong this sector is. It is not the number one industry group in Investors Business Daily for no reason. The gold stocks I am long and the gold stocks that I see setting up out there in the chartland is extremely impressive and I tell you if there is any reason to be bullish on a sector this is it.
The Gold futures contract can clearly show how AMAZING this beautiful yellow metal has been since the 9/11 attacks. Now back then, even though I was telling everyone to buy gold and yet not listening to myself, you have to remember, I was making good money on the short side 2001 and 2002 but then I started to make amazing money after the brilliant tax cuts of income and capital gains in 2003. So after the top in 2007, looking back, it seemed like a brilliant play as Gold never returned 1,000% in one year like 2003 did (thanks to margin).
