A Weak Day For The Market Indexes Has A Silver Lining As Leading Indexes Outperformed The Market With The IBD 85-85 Closing Up 1.5%+ And The IBD 100 Finishing Up .5%+
April 30, 2009 | Comments Off
Commentary by John Ward
Well, Investor’s Business Daily published an interesting fact in the “Big Picture” column tonight:
“In the past 22 years, the Nasdaq has made eight-week win streaks only six times. Only three of those times did the streak extend past the eighth week.” So if the Nassy can eke out a gain today, my friends, that will make it eight straight weeks of gains. From there it’s 50-50. It could go either way.
Still, if you think that today marks the end of the rally just because the Nasdaq got rejected at the 200 day moving average, I would like to call your attention to the Shanghai Composite, to my mind the world’s leading index. Back on February 17 it too was rejected at the 200 day. It fell back to its 50 (roughly a 10% pull back), only to find support. Look at the chart today. It has since broken above the 200 day and run up about 20%.
Now, given that the Nasdaq’s 50 day has turned higher over the past month (just as the Shanghai’s had in February) it is not unreasonable to think that should the Nasdaq correct it will most likely be about a 10% pullback. Whether it would be supported at the 50 day remains to be seen. Yet it could very well be that we’re just a few of months behind the Shanghai Index. Frankly, I would love to see us pullback to the 50 day. That wouldn’t be bearish. Far from it. I’ll explain why:
Stocks Pullback from the Highs of the Day but Notch a Day of Good Accumulation
April 30, 2009 | Comments Off
By Market Speculator
Once again late day action tempered gains from earlier in the session. Aside from the SWINE flu panic the notorious FOMC released their rate decision at 2:15pm EST. Leading up to the release stocks were showing steady gains and volume was running hot. Leading stocks were enjoying the day as well as the market was showing positive signs. Once the FOMC meeting hit it didn’t take long before gains were beginning to be given up. Although the end of day action wasn’t terrible it highlights the timidness in the market. Overall, the day was a day of accumulation and mostly positive just not great.
Small caps are leading the way as they should during the early stages of an uptrend. Both the Russell 2000 and S&P 600 indexes flashed big gains on bigger volume. A very positive sign for the market and its ability to continue to move higher. Although the IBD indexes are lagging/inline with the major indexes they were able to walk away with gains on volume as well. The small caps cannot be ignored, the move on volume is something that is very telling. Institutions’ appetitte for small caps stocks is now obvious and it appears there is more accumulation to come for those stocks.
Another Pullback On Lower Volume Is Always Nice To See; Leading Indexes Outperform The Market For Second Day In-A-Row
April 28, 2009 | Comments Off
A not too good-looking though wise enough man once wrote: “The strength of any rally shouldn’t be gauged solely by the rally itself but by what happens when the market pulls back. Is it a rational, orderly pullback on subdued volume or an ugly dumping of stock that ruins all the promising bases setting up out there? A pullback should be a welcome sight as it will reveal the market’s true colors.” For the life of me, I can’t remember this guy’s name, but, boy, does he sound like he knows what he’s talking about! Well, the market’s been showing exactly what it’s made of this week. Despite all the hysterics on the boob tube about some porcine influenza and bank “stress tests,” the market has been pulling back on quiet volume and yawning a rather dismissive yawn at it all. All while most leading stocks have held up and bases continue to, well, base.
While New Highs haven’t exactly set the world on fire, they have outpaced New Lows for the last nine sessions. Let’s take what we can get, all right? Besides, quite a few leaders continue to hang around their 52-week highs. I also noticed the Put/Call ticked up to .91, according to Investor’s Business Daily. That people are getting more negative and bearish (or bearisher, if you’re Market Speculator) could very well be bullish. These tidbits along with the fact that my nightly scans continue to present me with intriguing set-ups tells me that we may not all be going to hell in a hand basket.
Fear And Panic Driven Headlines Help Lead Indexes To Losses Across The Board; The Lower Volume And Gains In The IBD 85-85 Put A Positive Spin On Today’s Down Session
April 28, 2009 | Comments Off
by Market Speculator
The swine flu dominated headlines as the new strain of influenza hit the world over this past weekend. Headlines read this flu outbreak would hinder the world’s ability to recover. News media did its best to strike fear into its viewers thinking this would start a pandemic. Subsequently the market opened much lower, but surprising to the bearish folk the market found support. Later on in the morning we even saw the major indexes in positive territory. The afternoon fade was met with support and the indexes finished off their lows but most importantly VOLUME was significantly lower across the board. Monday was a classic day of consolidation and a welcome sign to a healthier market.
One thing that is becoming more and more obvious to me is our down days in terms of percentage loss. Monday marked a day where the major indexes were NOT down 1% or more. I am noticing, we are getting smaller and smaller percentage losses when we pull back. Going back to September, generally speaking our pullbacks were on LARGE percentage losses and many times on heavier volume. A very good shift in market action and a positive sign for those who are long stocks.
Another Beautiful Rally By The Nasdaq Helps Two Of Our Brand New Longs Finish Up 5% And 7% After The First Day Of Being Long; Leading Stocks And Leading Stock Indexes Continue To Lag
April 26, 2009 | Comments Off
The strength of any rally shouldn’t be gauged solely by the rally itself but by what happens when the market pulls back. Is it a rational, orderly pull back on subdued volume or an ugly dumping of stock that ruins all the promising bases setting up out there? A pullback should be a welcome sight as it will reveal the market’s true colors. It’s up to you to look at the facts and act. Opinions mean nothing. Let the market dictate what moves you make.
If you are long here, I think you should be asking yourself a few questions (I will assume that you bought the stock correctly and that it is CANSLIM-quality):
Has the stock gained over 20% within 1-3 weeks of its breakout? If not, you should consider taking profits. If your stock has taken longer than 3 weeks to get you that 20-25%, it would be wise to sell at least some into this strength. Most stocks need to take a breather after a move like that and it’s better to have the money ready to put to work elsewhere while that stock consolidates its gains. If the stock is a real winner, don’t worry, it will form another base and breakout again. Then you can buy it back. Until it does that, however, play the odds. Why have your money sitting in a stock that might be basing for over a month when that stock didn’t exhibit extraordinary strength on the initial run up?
A Choppy Intraday Session Ends With A Bullish Close As Stock Indexes Go On A Run In The Last 45 Minutes; When In The Heck Are Leading Stocks Going To Lead This Market Higher?
April 24, 2009 | Comments Off
Commentary by John “Author Ego” Ward
One word: choppy. I’m actually tempted to end this morning’s commentary here, as that single word tells you everything you need to know about yesterday’s action. But I guess that wouldn’t quite pass muster. Anyway, the market spent most of the day jumping around and only another late-day push, this time to the upside, gave the session the look of having accomplished anything at all. The Nasdaq lagged both the DJIA and the S&P 500, as did the Russell 2000 and S&P 600 (these small-cap indices, in fact, finished in the red). That’s not at all what we want.
Today the federal government releases the methods of the much anticipated “Stress Tests” of the nation’s 19 largest banks. This is sure to add to the volatility. You can imagine how investors will be going through this report with a fine-toothed comb, looking for any indication as to which banks might be in peril. This, coupled with reaction to the earnings of companies like AMZN, MSFT and NFLX, is sure to “stir the pot” and make a lot of people Thank God It’s Friday.
An Excellent Day Of Bullish Action Gets Hit In The Last Hour Ahead Of AAPL Earnings; Ours Long Hold Up Like There Was No Selloff Which Could Indicate Leading Stocks Are Ready To Take Over
April 22, 2009 | Comments Off
By Market Speculator
The last 30 minutes told an interesting story as much of the day stocks were enjoying gains on higher volume. Growth stocks were leading the way along with Small and Mid-Cap stocks. However, sellers began to flood the market and knock down AAPL during the last 30 minutes of the session. The company was set to release earnings after the bell and traders got nervous about a “miss.” This sent a shockwave throughout the market sending most stocks near their session lows. Not all was lost, majority of leading stocks held onto their gains suggesting growth investors are willing to hold onto winning stocks.
NYSE indexes were slapped with a distribution day, but the NASDAQ and others escaped with gains. It is clear the Small/Mid-Caps as well as the NASDAQ are the leaders of this market. Even on a nasty sell off it was encouraging to see these indexes finish off in positive territory. In addition to these major indexes the IBD indexes held up well. Both the IBD 100 and IBD 85-85 were able to hold onto their gains and finish with higher volume. The IBD 100 has been in a nice consolidation pattern for the month of April, it will be nice if it can clear this consolidation’s high on strong volume.
INOD Is Up 40% In One Month; Our Longs Are Finally Booking Gains Of 20%-25% In 2-3 Weeks Now; We Have 2-3 Longs To Add To Tonight…And Leading Stocks Still Are Not Leading The Market Higher! The Good Times Might Be Here Again! :)
April 22, 2009 | Comments Off
Today’s early session was very bullish for our longs and the amount of beautiful speculative and CANSLIM stocks setting up in long-term chart patterns, that silly short-term traders are still focusing on for the little intraday moves, bodes well for position investors. We now have hundreds of potential longs out there and are finally starting to compound on our longs with them setting up in multiple buying positions. If we are going to end up with those ‘past big winner’ returns, we should be starting to see some more INODs very soon (40% to 50% returns in one month). The green to max-green BOP filled, heavily accumulated, tight base patterns are not only showing up are finally working again for more than a few weeks and that is going to benefit us greatly as this market rallies.
top longs/(shorts) w/ total returns since purchase making money today: ANCI 62% INOD 40% ARST 21% SIGA 20% LFT 21% AIPC 26% SOLR 21% (MOS 54% POT 48% MANT 21% DV 19%)
Excellent Day For Our Longs As Stocks Bounce Back Nicely With The Nasdaq’s Price Pattern Engulfing Yesterday’s Price Pattern
April 21, 2009 | Comments Off
I NOW LEAVE YOU IN THE HANDS OF JOHN WARD AND CHRIS MAYE. SUBSCRIBERS WILL FROM NOW ON GET A PERSONAL DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY ON THE GOLD FORUMS UNDER THE GENERAL MARKET AREA. CHRIS MAYE AND JOHN WARD BOTH BRILLIANT INVESTORS THAT HAVE THE CANSLIM METHODOLOGY AND OTHER MOMENTUM METHODOLOGIES ON LOCK-DOWN WILL FROM NOW ON POST HERE. I WILL CONTINUE TO DO DAILY FREE YOUTUBE VIDEOS AND WILL ALWAYS DO VIDEOS ONE – VIDEOS FOUR IN FULL BEAUTIFUL SIZE FOR SUBSCRIBERS. THE COMMENTARY TAKES TOO MUCH TIME ON THIS END AND I AM OUTSOURCING IT TO THE TWO GENTLEMAN THAT KNOW MY MIND’S ANALYSIS THE BEST. I AM SURE YOU WILL NOT BE ABLE TO TELL THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN ME AND THEM, UNLESS YOU ARE A STICKLER FOR GRAMMAR, PUNCTUATION, AND COMPLETE SENTENCES. IF YOU ARE, YOU WILL BE GLAD I AM IN VIDEO ONLY FORMAT NOW. ALOHA FOR READING ME WHILE I WAS DOING THIS BUT IT IS TIME TO FOCUS ON THE PAID SITE AND ON WRITING COLUMNS ABOUT INDIVIDUAL STOCKS ON OTHER WEBSITES TO HELP PROMOTE GETTING INDIVIDUALS TO THE BEST SITE ON THE INTERNET FOR MAKING A LONG-TERM LIVING. PLEASE GO OVER MY PAST BIG WINNERS IN MY LONGS/SHORTS SECTIONS AND FEEL FREE TO LOOK AT PAST ARCHIVES TO SEE THE KIND OF RETURNS HERE AT BWT. WE ARE STILL VERY NEW (LESS THAN TWO YEARS OLD) AND ARE WORKING TO CONTINUE TO UPGRADE WITH OTHER FEATURES LIKE REAL-TIME PORTFOLIOS, EMAIL ALERTS, AND OTHER SPECIALIZED AREAS. ONCE AGAIN, ONE BIG FINAL .NET COMMENTARY WRITING…ALLLOOOOOOOHHHAAA!
Commentary by John Ward
Stocks Pullback On Lower Volume (Nasdaq Volume Skewed By JAVA) As Indexes Were Extremely Overbought; Was Anyone Surprised We Pulled Back?
April 20, 2009 | Comments Off
Commentary by Market Speculator
On the face of today’s market it appears to have been a terrible day for those who have been long stocks. Big price declines are never a “great” thing for the market, even worse if volume is higher. However, the day’s price declines appears to have been tame. Volume across the board was lower, the NASDAQ’s volume is inflated due to ORCL’s purchase of JAVA. Remove JAVA from the picture and you’ll see big institutional investors were not dumping stocks. More importantly our leaders of this market either pulled back on lighter trade or even moved higher. Yesterday’s action should give you some pause, but on the whole it wasn’t as bad as it appeared.
One leader had a very nice day, ALGT posted great earnings and the stock was able to push higher by 3.8% and on bigger volume. It’s relative strength line hit a new high as the stock is nearing a high. A very positive sign when a stock’s RS Line moves into new highs prior to it’s price. ALGT is a leader and is showing us we could be seeing more gains ahead if the leaders continue to act the way ALGT is acting.
