Another Intraday Dip Is Met With A Flurry Of Dip Buyers As Bulls Send Stocks Off Their Lows And Help All Indexes Close Near Their HOD
November 7, 2007
There is no other way to describe today except that it was a very bullish and good day for those that are long. That should include anyone that follows the general trend of the market and if that is you you probably had a very good day today. The SP 500 led the way with a 1.2% gain and leading stock continued to outperform the market as the IBD 100 rose 2.8% on the day. This continues to show, once again, that the right place to be is in leading stocks as they continue to crush the returns of the SP 500.
Another excellent confirmation of today’s strength is the volume that was seen in the Nasdaq. Volume rose over 20% on that index, giving today’s bullish intraday reversal from the red to a green HOD close all that much more importance. This was a very bullish day and I have to say that I am very happy to see today happen as I am vindicated from all the top callers that the market has recently had. once again, the trend was my friend.
Now, like I have been saying, it is a mixed market. Once again, even though we did have positive breadth, it still wasn’t that positive. On the Nassy advancers beat decliners only 4-to-3 and on the NYSE it was only 9-to-5. So it wasn’t that broad which goes to show that a few high quality leading tech stocks are leading us higher–and remember there is nothing wrong with that.
Also, new lows beat new highs by a good margin again, with the Nasdaq having 91 new highs to 248 new lows and the NYSE with 143 new highs and 165 new lows. It was not as bad as yesterday’s down day but it still is not good considering the strong gains today. But this just goes to show exactly how important smart stock picking is. There are probably a lot of people long stocks out there that are losing money because they are in the wrong stocks. That is one thing you can all be thankful is that on this website we will never be in the wrong stocks as I ALWAYS listen to the market. My opinion is worth as much as yours in the stock market: nothing.
Speaking of opinions, I think one thing we have to watch here is that a famous market commentator has finally embraced this rally. Those who read realmoney.com should know this famous shark. But now that he has welcomed the rally, we probably do not have much more to go. I hope I am wrong and instead his embracing of the bull market will instead just ensure more gains. But his track record has been poor so it bears watching if his bullishness doesn’t signal an end to the gains. But somehow I am thinking at this point it don’t matter. He will be right this time…finally.
But anyways the market is still one magnificent beast in the middle of one of the greatest stories never told about this economy. I also want to drop some facts on those that are “worried” (why?) about a recession. There has been in no time in the history of the USA when GDP has grown over 3% in consecutive quarters that a recession followed. So the fact that everyone is worried about a recession (40% of the brainwashed public think we are in one) is just silly after 3.4% and 3.9% growth. It is just crazy to be worried about that. However, this gives us our CLEAR wall-of-worry to climb higher. The put/call still being at .86 is another indication that the crowd is a bit fearful. And if not fearful, definitely not complacent.
One of the reasons I can not be fearful is that I see the facts with charts. My charts do lie sometimes, but the majority of the time when all the stocks say we are going higher or lower it means that we are going higher or lower. When everything is moving up and breaking out, normally that means that market is bullish and will remain that way. Well after today’s gains, we could have very easily have had only one new long candidate like on Friday. But instead we see eight new long candidates. It is impossible for me to pass on any of them. Besides those seven, those that are at least Gold members can see that on my watchlist there are about 50 setting up in some nice pattern. Out of those 50, 10 of them could easily be longs also. Instead I stuck with the best. There were eight plus three to add to. That is amazing. That tells me, along with my other longs moving up, that we are in a bull market and that we are probably not going to top tomorrow or the day after that. It appears there is a lot of room left on the upside.
If you look at the leading stocks that are getting parabolic, it is clear to experienced investors that those unsustainable moves are just now starting. Some Chinese stocks, like ZNH, are the chart patterns to study to see if some of the current GOOG SPWR BIDU type stocks create those patterns. When they do we will know the fun is over. But until then, this market could move up another 25% so it is wise to stick with our hot charts. I just wish there were more charts out there that looked like APPY did up to October 26. If there were more max green BOP filled charts like that I would be much more extremely happy and giddy.
Same thing goes for the VIX, the VIX is putting in a bearish price pattern which should be bullish for equities. The only problem is that the VIX is turning from relatively low numbers meaning that the gains aren’t going to be the “get rich” kind of gains. Still anything is better than what we were going through at the beginning of the year when the VIX was at sub $10 in February. Those were hellish times. Tons of charts to go through and stocks to be long…but little money to be made to say the least. You might like 50% gains in six months but I am still used to (very strong and long memory) to 200% gains in six months. I miss those days and KNOW we will NOT get them until another severe bear. So obviously, so I can get filthy rich with the high VIX, I want the market to fall.
So why don’t I root for a crash? Because that will not do me any good. My opinions, once again, don’t mean crap to Mr. Market. He moves to his own beat. Whatever the stock market wants to do, the stock market will do. Some are shocked it is up so much from the 2002 lows and expected a crash the whole way higher into 2007. I was not shocked and never fell into the crash camp, because I understand tax cuts. Still it was possible the market could have done anything. Some think it is good to invest in stocks now since they are up so much. I do not. However, nobody knows who is right. But by looking at the charts we can tell RIGHT NOW that the trend is up and that there is some big money to be made in those top stocks. Therefore, my job is to find those, exploit those stocks, and make a living so I can continue to live on this ridiculously expensive rock.
I hope everyone has been making good money off of some of my selections. There may not be a lot of perfect stocks out there but there are very pretty stocks making near-perfect moves in stocks like FNDT and ASTI. Hopefully, there will be a few more out there for us as this market rally continues. And if it doesn’t, you know I know how to find shorts. So we have that covered too.
Aloha and I will see you in the chat room at 7am HST, 9am PST, and noon EST. ALOHA!!
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I worked my ass off last night for this???
Fuck this market. I am no longer bullish on this market. Protect your profits and prepare for a possible selloff. I am giving up on the bull side. This is the most depressed I have been in years. I have absolutely no belief in my charts right now. There are NO perfect charts out there to make us a ton of money and all the near perfect charts fuck me over and over and over. I bought FNDT for my IRA and just like SNDA and BLL it is going to fuck me.
I am so upset. This is the most emotionally out of control I have felt with the market. Fuck this market. I recommend not going long anything I recommend until the trend becomes clear.
It is now time to focus on my shorts. I shorted more ING today than I have shorted in other stocks. Now I know why I want to increase my short positions…this market sucks.
I apologize for all the cursing but I want you all to feel my disappointment. I spent over 6 plus hours on charts last night. And this is how my hard work is rewarded!! I am pissed and have lost all interest in being a bull at this point.
I got something to say, but can’t say it1