August 11, 2008
I am finally back into the full swing of things after my extended two week vacation to Central Oregon. I did not miss too much and kept one eye on the market and one eye on the Cascades. I was reminded while visiting family and friends Jesse Livermore’s quote: “Human nature never changes, just the market participants do.”
We are not seeing a new bull market, I think Joshua has covered why we aren’t (NH/NL Ratio, Charts, Price/Volume action). However, we are seeing an increasing number of “newbies” who do not want to “miss” this move. What most newbies do not understand is that chasing gains always turns out to be a dangerous adventure. See all banks after the March – May rallies, we were told they were buys of a lifetime. As it turns out, we were right. There is absolutely no reason to chase after bad stocks in a bad market. This market just will not give up huge winners. We are looking for stocks that move 100%+ or more not stocks that move 20%. If you are new to the market, sit back and do some homework. There is no need to jump into this market right away. You aren’t going to miss much.
Market Speculator
“More money is made by being patient.”
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