Breakouts And Nice Round Bases Are Everywhere While Commodity Stocks Look Extremely Toppy

May 1, 2008

I see nice round bases everywhere in EVERY long scan and CANSLIM scan that I run. Stocks like our HA long from 3/27/08 is already up 60% and MA from 8/2/06 is up almost 500% since then and now we have a lot of pretty green BOP filled charts starting to round out and complete bases. If they make handles, two or three-week tight bases, or another base on base, this market should be heading MUCH higher. Everywhere I look I see good chart patterns. Now if only I could get volume on the NYSE. But did you see the Nassy? Another BIG DAY OF GAINS ON HIGHER VOLUME. That is now five days of above average volume since 4/17. Only one was lower and it has seen a very bullish response today with even higher volume and much larger price gains.

Volume is starting to come back, my existing longs are now starting to put in some real strong gains, and bases are forming everywhere. This is definitely a market I want to be long. If we fail and reverse, it would be the NASTIEST reversal ever because this is how stocks should be acting before a powerful rally and a reversal of this super-bullish action would be in one word: NASTY!

OK, the surf is STILL HUGE and our biggest NEW long from yesterday was up almost 8% today. Sadly I only got 25% of the HUGE position I wanted as it gapped higher AND NEVER pulled back to my buy points. It happens and it sucks. I hope this helps you realize that I am not perfect and that, just like you, I screw up a lot. I should have made the market order 1/2 of it and the limit the other half, since it trades over 500,000 shares daily. Even after 12 years and over a 1,500% return on my initial equity I still can make some stupid choices. You don’t need to be perfect, you don’t even need to be right 1/2 of the time, to make a killing. Just ask major league baseball players if they ONLY fail 7 out of 10 times they are considered some of the best hitters in the game.

Go figure!!! It is the same with poker and stocks. In poker I don’t play more than 20% of the hands I am dealt. How many of you are that conservative at the poker table? If you are not, how much money have you won? And be honest. I will know if you are lying or not as I had no problem making a living at the poker tables. Too bad the people were so nasty. But thank God for online poker. Even today I consider it more enjoyable than a live game as live games always have people around that you sometimes wish you were never around.

Aloha and I will be back later with a post-BIG surf session stock market commentary….

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