NASDAQ Closes off its Highs as Volume Slides, but Above Average
February 3, 2012 | Comments Off
The market ended off the highs of the session, but with volume coming in lower we avoid a day of stalling. Russell 2000 small cap index raced higher tying the NASDAQ composite for the top index of the day. Interestingly, enough both indexes have yet to have the golden cross yet continue to lead the entire market higher. Bernanke’s testimony on the hill helped spark some buying, but as the testimony wore on sellers began to take over. We continue to play in overbought conditions, but this rally is healthy and remains that way. Tomorrow’s job report will certainly set off fireworks. At this very moment, we have a healthy rally that is a bit over-extended.
The unemployment rate will be the key statistic the market pundits will be paying attention to. Last month’s surprise move to the downside for the rate helped spark some confidence for the market in general. However, the denominator, the total employment pool continues to shrink driving down the percentage of people out of work. It is very difficult to measure unemployment, but judging by the U-6 figures as well as the number of people on food stamps our situation remains weak. Why else would the Federal Reserve hold rates steady near zero percent all the way out to 2015? If employment was actually improving there would be no need to continue to hold rates down. Enough of the economic talk, it’s about the trend.
Facebook $FB Files for an IPO as a late day sell-off takes down the S&P 500
February 2, 2012 | Comments Off
The big talk of the town was FB filing for its IPO. Despite the news of the IPO sellers hit the market late day pushing stocks from its highs. Over at the NASDAQ despite sellers on the NYSE the NASDAQ appeared to be somewhat immune. Volume soared on the NASDAQ as institutions pile back into technology stocks. It is clear the leading index of this rally is the NASDAQ and we view this as a positive sign. A solid day for the NASDAQ while it appears the NYSE related indexes continue to lag.
We have a good start to the month of February as we get ready for Friday’s job report. As usual the talking heads will be looking to find clues of an improving economy. More people are fleeing the job market helping out the unemployment rate. As usual we will not try to predict what the number may or may not be and gauge a plan of attack based upon a guess. Discipline is paramount, we’ll stick to our proper buy and sell rules and let the guessing be handled by others.
What to do about FB? We are going to wait and see how it trades. We’d love to see the stock consolidate and form an IPO base. It’s anyone’s guess where the stock will go. Perhaps it will pull a LNKD and catapult on day one. Truly, it’s anyone’s guess and we’ll wait to attack the stock if it meets our buying criteria.
January Closes with a Whimper; AMZN Disappoints After Releasing Earnings
February 1, 2012 | Comments Off
The early morning jolt higher the market was hit with unexpected disappointing economic news from the Chicago PMI and Consumer Confidence. While it did appear the market was heading for a day of distribution buyers stepped up just after the lunch hour. Financials reversed course pushing higher a positive sign for the market. The downside was the stalling action as the NASDAQ was unable to hold its gains from the morning. While we did see support, there weren’t enough buyers to erase the stalling action. Volume spiked at the end of the session as monthly rebalancing always ushers in a big volume spike. All in all, today wasn’t too bad of a day for now.
Historically speaking February isn’t typically a month where you would expect a big rally to kick off, but we did see in 2010 where February kicked off a sizeable rally. It is anyone’s guess whether or not we take off from here or reverse course and head lower. A sound plan to attack the market is paramount; if this market is to go higher we want to take advantage. On the flip side, we don’t want to be exposed if this market is to turn lower. Cutting losses and your laggards is a prudent course of action.
New Stock Market Article At The Motley Fool
January 31, 2012 | Comments Off
Three Stocks That Should Be On Your Watchlist
New Stock Market Article At The Motley Fool
Closing off the Lows, Stocks Show Resilience
January 31, 2012 | Comments Off
While market pundits wait for a Greece and its creditors to come to an agreement, stocks quietly put in a solid day. At the open it did not appear stocks would have a good day as the market pulled back nearly one percent. Small cap stocks were having a difficult time, but a solid reading from the Dallas Fed helped spur buyers step up to the plate. Volume ran lower for much of the day and helped the market avoid a day of distribution. This is the type of action you want to see as the stock market consolidates its gains and if the market continues to act like this it will bode well for the future.
Yes, the market may be a bit overbought still, but the recent action is quite encouraging. Recent price action in AAPL, INTC, and MSFT (the big dogs) is also very encouraging. A sore spot in this rally is the inability for the IBD 85/85 to show any relative strength. This index has been stuck in neutral for quite some time, but pay attention any pick up in strength would be a very positive signal. As we head into February I would expect a choppy month as February tends to be a tough month for the market. If this type of action continues it will only set us up nicely for a big rally.
New Stock Market Article At The Motley Fool
January 30, 2012 | Comments Off
A Handful Of Stocks Ready To Move Higher
New Stock Market Article At The Motley Fool
Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update
January 29, 2012 | Comments Off
The Big Wave Trading portfolios continue to be fully invested following our full BUY signal on 1/5/2012. Both margin and IRA accounts are fully invested. As we continue to find new longs all that can be done is to sell the losers and place whatever funds remain in new positions as they generate BUY or SELL signals. A quick reminder: Big Wave Trading never carries losses. Every buy signal has a set cut loss level and it is always obeyed. The loss target on any one trade is to never be more than 0.5% of total account value. Once a stock loses 0.5% of the total account value, even if it has not hit its final cut loss target, it will be completely sold.
Big Wave Trading believes that the market may be in tune for a pullback. However, we also recognize that it is impossible to predict what the stock market will do. Therefore, if we continue to grind higher, this would not surprise us. If we do get a pullback, it appears, based on the very strong accumulation in multiple stocks across multiple sectors of the market, that it would simply end up separating the best stocks from the laggards. This would allow us to move the cash raised from the small losses or profit taking to these true leaders. If we pullback on very heavy distribution, obviously, the pullback will not be a buying opportunity. Like we always say, it is impossible to predict the stock market. Those that do are plain fools and usually their results show it in their brokerage statements.
Leaders Turn Lower as Stocks Reverse Hard
January 27, 2012 | Comments Off
The NASDAQ notched its first day of distribution after putting in a new high in the most recent rally. A solid durable goods order number helped push the market higher. However, a bigger expected drop in New Home sales didn’t help and put pressure on stocks. It wasn’t until the late afternoon did we see the selling pressure kick up a notch. A little late day surge helped the NASDAQ close off its lows, but failed to protect it from a day of distribution. Distribution happens and it boils down to whether or not you prepared for what you do next.
Once again the number of Bulls in the AAII survey was near 50%. Bears dropped below the 20% mark once again this month. Remember, yesterday the percentage stocks above their 20 and 50 day moving averages was above 80%. A pull back here is NOT surprising and is to be expected. What we need to watch for is how we pull back. Can we avoid heavy distribution? Are leaders going to hold up? Sound money management principles are paramount in this market.
Tomorrow we get a look at fourth quarter GDP and it is expected to come in at 3%. It’ll be interesting to hear the debate about the number and how you should respond with your portfolio. Unfortunately, making a “play” will end up costing you dearly. Price and volume are keys to this market and guide us to making proper decisions.
Fighting the Fed is Futile; AAPL and Bernanke Send Stocks Higher
January 26, 2012 | Comments Off
Stocks were weak to begin the day as pending home sales were weaker than expected. The weakness didn’t last very long as traders and investors were positioning themselves ahead of the Federal Reserve policy statement. By noon, stocks were at session highs, but it wasn’t until the market heard the news rates would be held down until the end of 2014. Regardless of what you think of the statement the market went higher and with volume to boot. While the market closed off the highs of the session the day overall was very bullish.
During the after-hours session NFLX reported better-than-expected earnings as the stock jumped more than 15%. NFLX had a terrible time at the end of 2011, but the stock has been able to rebound from its heavy selling. The mishap over splitting the DVD business from the streaming business may be behind the company as the stock has had one heck of a ride off the lows.
The biggest concern here is how to handle a potential pull back. I wouldn’t expect today to be the “top” of this market rally, but a potential pull back of 3-5% is always in the deck. How you handle it is the most important. Have a game plan on where you’ll exit your stocks, cutting losses and taking profits should be in your plan. If not, get it in there! We are at frothy levels with 85% of stocks are above their 50 day average and 82% of them are above their 20 day average. These levels are usually met with some sort of selling, but we aren’t going to try and “guess” when we’ll turn. This uptrend is for real and even a small pull back won’t keep it down for very long.
AAPL Blows Away Earnings in After-Hour Session
January 25, 2012 | Comments Off
Another great day for the stock market as again buyers step up and support the market. The market did get help from the Richmond Federal Reserve Manufacturing index as it came in better than expected. However, the market turned its attention to AAPL’s quarterly earnings report. Volume came in lower perhaps due to the Federal Reserve meeting concluding on Wednesday, but it’s anyone’s guess. More importantly, it was AAPL’s blow out quarter taking center stage. This uptrend will continue tomorrow and for the moment it continues to be strong.
There are a lot of people who are fighting this current trend and it is easily understood. Sure, we can have pullbacks, but to be calling for all out Armageddon is quite funny at this stage. It is anyone’s guess where the market will go from here despite what may appear to be “smart” analysis. We only know what is directly in front of us and we have been in an uptrend. A disciplined, ruled based approach where position sizing, cutting losses, and exiting positions is the best way to attack this market.
Tomorrow we’ll get Ben Bernanke’s take on the economy and its rate decision. Expectations are for the Federal Reserve to really keep their stance on monetary policy. Basically, they are going to decide whether or not they need to print more money. The conundrum they are in at the moment is they justified QE2 with a sluggish jobs market and with the jobs market improving they have little justification for another round. At the rate Washington, DC spends money and its inability to balance the budget the Fed will have to at some point soak up excess supply. Of course, do I know the future; no, but given with how we know DC operates not sure how we don’t go down this path.
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Recent Posts
- NASDAQ Closes off its Highs as Volume Slides, but Above Average
- Facebook $FB Files for an IPO as a late day sell-off takes down the S&P 500
- January Closes with a Whimper; AMZN Disappoints After Releasing Earnings
- New Stock Market Article At The Motley Fool
- Closing off the Lows, Stocks Show Resilience
