Downtrend Is Still In Effect And That Means Being Short Is Right And Being Long Is Wrong, For Now
November 6, 2008 | Comments Off
I know a lot of people were excited after the big rally last week. But like I keep making reference to nobody was chiming in on the volume. The fact that volume was so low on the rally was the clear sign to me not to trust the most recent rally. I did not chase stocks higher and believe that now in only two days I am being proven correct in my analysis.
I did go long a few stocks to test the longs water, just in case we might rally higher. Too bad it looks like they are not going to work and that I will probably end up having to cut them completely in one or two more days if the downtrend continues. And I have to be honest, there is no reason I can see it stopping. Not with me still having new short positions to take from my scans.
The fact that there are shorts still in my scan indicate that plenty of stocks are still near or within 25% of their 52-week highs making them good short candidates. If the downtrend last too much longer, we will not have a lot of short candidates left and will instead have to start looking for new longs.
Nasty Reversal By The Indexes Near The 50 Day Moving Average Might Signal That New Lows Are Ahead
November 5, 2008 | Comments Off
I know a lot of people may not like to hear that but I want everyone to remember that I ONLY use charts to make ALL of my trading/investing decisions. I have not and will not be bullish on stocks until I see stocks bottom out and work on bases. Then and only then would I consider going long this market.
Instead, for right now, I will continue to stick with my short bias as the trend is very down and all I am doing is simply going with the downtrend. Now remember, just because I expect the downtrend to resume does not mean that it will. I am only setting myself up for more profits on the short side because, for one, they have already made me good money in a year that was dominated by massive losses in most portfolio. And two, they continue to be the only setups that are working in this market.
Recently, I went long a few stocks. At first everything was looking OK. But now as this market starts to plateau at this overbought condition near the 50 day moving averages, a few stock, once again, have set themselves up for future profits. How big are those profits going to be? Well here is a showing of my top holdings right now: top longs/(shorts): ANCI 71% QCOR 37% (TITN 45% CETV 70% SPG 22% CEO 38% SDA 67% GGB 59% RIMM 46% AAPL 37% ATHR 32% SBAC 40% AMX 42% CYT 50% POT 46% CEDC 43% MOS 55%).
Nice Election Day Rally Looks Nice On The Outside But Remember The Big Trend Is Still Down; Keep Time Frames Short
November 4, 2008 | Comments Off
Obviously, it is election night and a lot of people are going to be very tired tomorrow morning. However, the market never sleeps and I have continuously said that this recent rally was a very oversold bounce in a market down 45% at one point in the year. Despite that steep loss, a lot of people think that we have reached a bottom.
The only problem with that is the lack of volume on the rally. The last rally we just saw came with lower and lower volume. Today’s volume was well below average, keeping the recent trend alive. With the futures now pointing down, it appears that the market has run right into resistance around the 50 day moving average.
Not only is the market running into the 50 DMA but a lot of broken stocks have returned right to their downtrend 50 and 200 day moving averages. With that happening, it doesn’t make it very smart to get heavily long here to try to catch the market and its momentum.
Nothing Has Changed
November 4, 2008 | Comments Off
Since everyone can pretty much tell that it was a nothing day I think this short market video is basically all you need to know to be ready for tomorrow. There is no need to post anything else. If you are a silver-platinum subscriber you may read my post on the longs and shorts. But for tonight, I am just posting this video.
Weak Closes And Low Volume Dominated The Market This Week
November 1, 2008 | Comments Off
The stock market had a great week last week but the problem that kept creeping up as each day went on was lower and lower volume. This is not good no matter when you see it in an uptrend, unless heavier accumulation then follows. However, this particular rally seemed to be very weak. And if you go over the Nasdaq each day as the market rallied it becomes clear that institutional investors were not supporting stocks as they moved higher.
Therefore, I must continue to advise everyone to be VERY careful right now as there is a LOT of uncertainty out there and the one thing the markets do not like are uncertainty. So if this wild action continues for a while, I would continue to exercise caution.
The only thing that will change my mind is if I get more FULL short covering moves that get me out of my last 5%-20% of holdings in some shorts and I get a rally that has more than a few stocks moving higher. Right now, it is too messy, besides Medical stocks. And just because medical stocks are moving up does not mean that makes them a safe bet. So be careful about chasing momentum in a weak tape.
It Is Great To See Some Positive Price Action; Where Was The Volume?
October 30, 2008 | Comments Off
I think it best to keep this simple because a low volume rally is not a rally that should have anyone excited. No, instead we should start to pray for volume or else our new long that was up over 10% today will not be going up much more. I am having a severe MS flare-up and since there were no new positions I think I will keep this short and sweet. YOU ALREADY KNOW WHAT IS THE RIGHT MOVE RIGHT NOW! Don’t act like being long is all of a sudden right when it was very wrong for the past twelve months. It is going to take more than a week to fix the wreck that we have been handed. Let’s hope for a lower volume pullback followed by higher volume rallies or else we will just have to continue to fight on the short side. The good news is we have longs that are working and we have shorts that have worked and a TON are still well below their key moving averages that support healthy uptrends.
A Very Volatile Session Ends With Insanity And Confusion Winning Over Calm And Reason
October 30, 2008 | Comments Off
There will be no video as my associate is not available. However, if you are a Gold or Platinum subscriber I will make a very long video for you to watch in the AM. So chances are high that there will not be a free YouTube video for Silver and Free members. Gold and Platinum you will get a long video to enjoy in the AM. Days like today are the reason I don’t GAMBLE my money in the market intraday. I don’t know what it is but since decimalization and the loss of the uptick rule the market sure does get nuts sometimes. I also wonder if no more curbs are causing problems. I just don’t know but I don’t have to know. I just need my charts to setup and work. When they don’t set up, they don’t work and my cash stays idle. Those that think you need to trade at full margin 100% of the time have probably paid the price and then some this year. And if not this year, I am sure very few of you maneuvered today’s market session correctly. I would love to have seen the old daytraders that I worked with in 98-00 handle a market that moves like this one. I am sure they wouldn’t be doing very well. Seriously folks, CASH IS KING!!!! If you didn’t think that was the right move before today, you should now!
A Very Nice Oversold Bounce Has Bottom Callers Screaming “It’s Here” Again As IBD Calls The Market Now In A Confirmed Rally; How Nice Can A Rally Be With ZERO New 52-Week Highs On The Nasdaq And NYSE
October 28, 2008 | Comments Off
I know most of you that are clueless to what I am short and long have no clue how well I did today but I went long a stock a few days ago…it was up 14% today. How did the crap you bottom-fishers caught do? Probably not as well. I am 95% cash, 2% short, and 3% long with 2% in the one stock up 14%. So before you go nuts and think that I lost money today, get your facts straight.
I’ll try to remind everyone that has believed in every other bottom THAT HAS FAILED that the biggest UP days come in BEAR MARKETS. Let’s see how many of you can remember this for more than 1 hour. LOL.
Obviously, I am not talking to my subscribers. All of you are very smart, you know what I am long, you know I have taken most of my shorts off for BIG profits, and you know that I have been preaching CASH IS KING for a week now as the market has gotten very volatile. Those of you not subscribers, I fear for your accounts in this market. Great luck!!
There is one major point that I will go into with my subscribers that I did not realize until JUST NOW. The DJIA and SP 500, ON AN INTRADAY BASIS, did not make new lows and thus “technically” re-followed-through on the indexes. This is why IBD calls it a a follow-through day. I still see a very weak market underneath with no 52-week highs but my biggest long (that some idiot said wasn’t a good long–boy you sure were wrong like EVERYBODY else that seems to challenge me) was up 14% and that combined with a high volume strong move in the IBD 100 does indicate this rally has a chance of helping set the stage up for a better rally int he future. For right now I still see UGLY stocks everywhere and have a tough time calling this a bullish market. It is a fact that the biggest most volatile up days occur in bear markets. So this huge up day has all the hints of being a bear market rally.
Is This What Bottom Callers Think A Bottom Looks Like? Fools Never Give Up, No Matter How Many Times They Get It Wrong
October 27, 2008 | Comments Off
I don’t feel like writing any commentary tonight as I have done so much work on the Gold, Platinum, and even the Silver areas today that I just will point everyone into the direction of some recent videos that I have made. Anyways, it gets old saying “I told you so” over-and-over-and-over. You keep calling bottoms and I will keep making you look foolish. Learn to move with the trend or please take the time to freaking learn the CANSLIM system. How much proof do you need from this system to get on with it. Don’t be lazy. Take control of your financial future. Stop calling bottoms and start calling IBD and get a subscription to the ONLY newspaper that will change your life.
Full size version of the Daily Stock Market Wrap Up video is available on the Forums. Gold and Platinum members if you have not been in the rooms for the past few days you should know there are two new 20 minute videos that are up on the forums that go over new beautiful charts in a new bull market, what many charts will look like at the bottom, what they will look like before the bottom, what the volume looks like on the indexes, and how constant BEAUTIFUL max green BOP filled charts constantly replace one after another after one has gone on to make big gains.
A Special Note To All The Jerks Trying To Start Crap With Me
October 25, 2008 | 1 Comment
The earliest short in this list was entered on 6/17/08 everything else comes after. After this I will list my current longs:
RGLD 15%, CPRT 7%, RDK 10%, CEO 50%, ATHR 36%, POT 57%, CAJ 38%, GGB 69%, CETV 74%, ARB 38%, OKE 37%, MOS 67%, SPW 61%, TITN 54%, SBAC 51%, CEDC 65%, AMX 55%, RIMM 54%, ENB 15%, APD 45%, SPG 35%, CYT 56%, SDA 69%, HXM 64%
So all of these gains you see came in UNDER four months!!!!!!!! And just how is this bad for investors?? It isn’t. It is only bad for people that do not understand how to make money when the stock market is falling. Haven’t you fine folks heard of shorting? Is this concept too hard to grasp or will your lackluster returns always cause you to be jealous of me and my big returns. Maui No Ka Oi. My life is seriously the best life in the world. I am making a ton of money just sitting on my ass while you all get angry and bitter towards me. Life is great!! Keep the hate comments coming, they only make me happier.
Or how about going long a few winning stocks like ANCI up 60% or QCOR up 15%.
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Recent Posts
- Late Day Selloff On Lower Volume Shows The Bulls Are Not Ready To Run; A Test Of The Lows Might Be Needed To Get A Real Bounce
- Nice Rally Today Too Bad It Was On Below Average Volume
- Stocks Rally On Mixed Volume As Yet Another Day Of Insane Volatility Comes To An End
- If You Do Not Give Up, You Will Create Great Financial Wealth
- Stocks Resume Selloff As Distribution Day Rattles Investors Who Bought Last Weeks LAME Rally
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