I Just Posted 11 More Past Big Winners. PLEASE STUDY THE CHART PATTERNS!
August 10, 2008 | Leave a Comment
Until I see these chart patterns again, there is NOTHING FOR ME TO DO!!!!!!! I don’t trade for pennies. I like to make 300% in one month. I don’t then switch to daytrading during times like this because when it is time to go real big again you will have a warped sense when to sell and you will not have a SINGLE ONE of my 1999, 2003, 2004, 2005, or 2006 winners.
If you look at all my BEAUTIFUL MAX GREEN BOP charts and see those AMAZING gains produced via these incredible charts (which most of them were also CANSLIM quality stocks) and still think there is a better way well man….God bless you. Keep buying support and resistance. My methodology is proven to be of superior quality. This is why I have studied the greatest traders. So I can have stocks like this line-up my list of personal holdings.
Some of you need to go to 1999 and 2003 especially and memorize EVERY single one of those beautiful chart patterns. That way when this bear is over and a bull is ready THERE IS NO WAY YOU WILL OR COULD BE CAUGHT OFF GUARD. Those that make it through this–which will be only 10% of those that have opened an account within the past three years–will enjoy the next bull market unlike those that gave up. Most will give up. Are you?
Longs Analysis Detailed With Some Important Stock Market Information
August 10, 2008 | 1 Comment
For subscribers to the site, we are back online, after a NJ transformer exploded and knocked out 1,000 of website. We were one. Anyways, for those of you waiting for commentary, I have already updated the shorts and longs section–making the longs section very detailed about each stock and the overall condition of the current bear bounce. So if you need to whet your lips with some heavy “dope” about this market feel free to go to the longs page and get some knowledge.
For the freeloaders, I will be updating the site this weekend. It has been a busy weekend but the bottom line is you 1,2, and 3 year old ROOKIES/NEWBIES/FOOLS/COCKY CRANKY PEOPLE whatever you want to be called need to stop thinking you are tough shit. 90% of you will fail. So stop acting like you know it all in this market. The best traders ARE NOT DOING ANYTHING RIGHT NOW. Until you can figure out why the Home Run hitters aren’t swinging for pitches after all the data and reasons I have posted here the past three weeks there is not much else I can do to help your greedy behind.
What have you done for me last week? Nothing. What did I do for you in 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, late 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, early 2007, and with two stock in 2008. I MADE YOU FILTHY RICH. It is NOT my fault you are deciding to enter the market now in a bear market. That is your problem not mine. Where were you in 2003? Where were you in 2004? Study my past big winners and tell me if you want to make money like that or if you want to daytrade yourself to the poor house.
The 50 Day Moving Average Proves To Be Strong Resistance; For A Real Bottom To Happen The Public Has To Give Up–We Are No Where Near That Yet
August 7, 2008 | 2 Comments
I am extremely busy right now and will expand on this later but like I have said many times before: the most successful rallies come when the Follow-Through Day comes with a move well over 3% and takes the prices over the 50 DMA. When you don’t get that on a FTD day you normally only have a bear market rally.
A lot of people are wondering why it is so hard to make money out there. Well folks just taking a look at your charts tells you why. Since January 29, 2008 till today 8/7/2008 (I think I was on a two-day chart when I posted these figures in the longs/shorts analysis–subscribers will see the small variation) the market has moved a WHOLE NEGATIVE .10 PERCENT. I hate to tell people who love to make money this but without a real trend it is OBVIOUSLY impossible to make money in the market.
For six-and-a-half months the market has moved nowhere and without a market moving more than 10% up or down it becomes impossible for trend followers to make big money. That is why since the big gap lower on 1/22 I have made absolutely ZERO for income. A job that has always provided me with income (minus the Jan 02-September 02 period) is right now making me its little you know what. For this to change one simple thing has to happen and it is very simple. A trend has to start.
Another Big Up Day But The Volume Is Lame, Medical Is Leading, And Innovative Tech Is Being Destroyed
August 6, 2008 | Leave a Comment
Tech and bank stocks continue to receive no love, while the commodity stocks continue to top. The rotation, to me, is clearly going into medical and food stocks. I have listed a ton of stocks to be looking to get long and have gone long enough medical stocks that we have enough candidates to watch for possible buy points.
However, this doesn’t mean you have to trade. If some of you have not learned from “How to Make Money in Stock” or “Reminiscences of a Stock Operator” that there are times to be long, times to be short, and times to stay away, like now, then I don’t know what to tell you. I am still getting too many questions about stocks from people that are clueless that they are fighting a major freaking battle. No FTD has ever succeeded for a real bull market rally that sent stocks up 1000% of points that did not see the FTD bust through the 50 DMA and the best take both the 50 and 200 DMA out. So the fact that our FTD was so weak and that we took the 50 DMA today on the Nassy is still extremely weak. It is almost like watching an identical rally of January 2001 or the late September 2001 rally. No matter what I am not buying what I see.
I have taken some nice medical longs. But even in this market, the medical stocks, are not setting up in perfect patterns. I am not used to seeing so few and so lame max green chart stocks. This is turning out to be one severe bear market. Despite the few stocks that are moving higher, so many seem to ignore the NCR, NICE, ENS, and PCLN’s out there. Investing in this kind of market is silly and not my cup of tea.
Reflecting On The Bounce During A Quiet Maui Night
August 5, 2008 | 3 Comments
There is not a whole lot I have to add to my original thoughts about the bounce. I still feel that volume was weak and that hopefully we can get a long bounce from this but until volume explodes to the upside I don’t think much is going to happen.
When I was going through the top ETFs I noticed that healthcare and banks have been doing the best along with discount stores. I don’t know about you but I like only one of those groups as terms of strength. That is the healthcare. But when it comes to financials leading it would be great if they were leading hitting new highs but instead they are bouncing from a vicious downtrend. My only hope is that is that is the bottom. But you know what I think of hope. Luckily, for us, it has not been horrible.
Since we do know healthcare is working, we do know that we can go long healthcare stocks and possibly do very well. There is a stock now up 16% for us in three days and moves like this makes a bear market easier to deal with. My problem is that the short side has not worked that well as there has personally been more pain than gain since the November to January period where our short sales did pretty well. Oh well, hopefully that will change.
No Doubt About It Being A Great Day But Before You Get Too Excited Study Your History About Bear Market FOMC Meeting Rallies. They Are Always Big But As 2000-2002 Taught Us Be Very Careful About Believing In Them.
August 5, 2008 | 1 Comment
I know that sounds super cautious but in this market a lot of people are quick to call this bear dead. That is my first clue that we are probably not dead. The second clue is that I clearly remember my biggest gains destroyed day during the first trading session of 2001 when the Fed hit the market with a surprise .50 basis point cut. The market exploded and destroyed my profits and shorts. About two months later if I would not have been scared out of my shorts I would have made a lot more money. I sure did lose a lot on that FOMC rally in a bear market.
Thankfully, do to this history lesson I do not get too excited when I see such a bullish day as today. I am grounded, in other words. Did you notice that volume was below the 50 day average volume on the NYSE despite the rise and that it was only barely above average on the Nasdaq. For those that know FTD histories about launching new bull markets know THAT IT WILL ALWAYS APPEAR THAT THE MARKET HAS MADE THE MOST OF ITS GAINS WITHOUT YOU. But by just looking at history you know that is not the truth and that missing out on those initial gains does nothing to prevent huge returns in your stocks. My problem with today’s rally is that it did not have that HUGE VOLUME and HUGE PRICE gains that come with the CONVINCING bottoms of the past. That has thrown me and is the reason I doubt we have nothing more than a trading rally here. WHICH I WILL GLADLY TAKE HERE!!! I will take anything that gives more charts like the stock that was near-perfect and is now up almost 17% in three days. Those that have studied their past and know what perfect charts looked, or those that were in the chat room, knew that we had a potential n this one.
However, the problem is we just have one stock near perfect and tonight my BOP scans, which alert me to possible great future longs, are still dry. If this was THE BOTTOM we would have 10-20 stocks with patterns similar to APII and EMIS. That is huge volume and BOP coming off the lows. We, personally in my ow opinion, would be seeing a lot more hotties. Does that mean we can’t soon. Absolutely not. We have a ton of retail, bank, and tech stocks that if they could make one more base on top of the base they are coming out of now, for example DRIV if it could make one more green to max green BOP base and breakout would be perfect.
Another Selloff Hits The Market With Volume Well Below Average But Doing Just As Much Damage As Heavy Volume Would
August 4, 2008 | Leave a Comment
The stock market indexes all continue to trend below the 50 day moving average with the 200 day moving average trailing right behind it. This is the most bearish possible scenario for the indexes to be in and looking to go long stocks with the indexes setup like this is just asking for trouble. However, the worst possible other factor is finally being relieved. I was not making money in my shorts recently with the market in this negative position but now my shorts are doing well and even the shorts that I lost due to reversals that were unexpected are doing very well.
This just goes back to underline how important it is to have guts. If the stock is breaking down on huge volume, with the indexes in clear downtrends, it makes sense that as long as the stock is within 20% of its old highs as long as the pattern is right then it makes sense to get short. I will be looking to get short as many mining, oil, metal, ag, and other stocks that have been rising since 2001 that are starting to show topping patterns.
Some of the most recent interesting stocks that appear to be topping since the oil stocks destruction has been the chemical stocks. Today the stocks TRA, MOS, POT, SQM, CLF, and AGU are all giving clear major topping and reversal signals. These charts have appeared to be topping before, especially TNH. However, TNH definitely looks to be rolling over now and if volume picks back up then I am sure this stock is dead. The problem is that unless these stocks give me a low volume pullback to the 50 DMA followed by another move through both the 50 and 200 on strong volume, I am sure I will be getting short quite a few of the old chemical leaders.
Ugly Open Reverses With A Strong And Choppy Intraday Session; Stocks Still Close Lower Despite The Intraday Rally
August 2, 2008 | 3 Comments
Even though inedexes closed down .5%, they really did not go very far but they did do it in a very choppy motion. So unless you like turbo trading support and resistance for peanuts then there really is not a whole lot to do. I do understand that some people love daytrading and love to spend all day trading. Well if you enjoyed Friday then you are for sure a diehard market fan. It simply is not the way I want to spend my time. Now rewind back to 1999. I was making a TON of money HOLDING stocks. Not daytrading. But if I was bored had access cash and did not have perfect stocks to invest I could and would daytrade. I have to admit it was not as much fun as I did not get to see my pretty max green BOP charts and I did not like the feeling my heart had when I had multiple positions on. But if that is what you like doing then enjoy daytrading.
Right now, I think trading to the downside is the right game but as it is clear the markets are trending below the 50 and 200 day moving average. I tell you what, if some of you are impatient and can not stand having on longs (even if the chat is ugly; why???) all you need to do is go out and have fun until you at least see the price bars above the 50 day moving average. Once you see that you know that in the short term prices are moving higher. Then you can go in and look for max green BOP beauties like my XSI long that I have on. It isn’t perfect but nothing is in this market. I just want you to study all the green all over that chart and notice the perfect bounce/breakout on volume in late June. If you still don’t see these after the 50 DMA is taken then sooner or later you will once the indexes prices on the averages cross back above the 200 DMA. Once the indexes are above the 50 and 200 DMA there will be a few green filled BOP charts (hopefully) for us to enjoy.
Nasty Reversal Below The 50 Day Moving Average Telegraphs Just How Weak This Market Is
July 31, 2008 | Leave a Comment
It is never good to have a solid day that has so many people feeling contempt on higher prices reverse hard and show investors losses. But that is what we got today. Nothing short of the word disappointing can describe today’s price action. The reversal intraday of the good price action was a major disappointment to investors across the board.
However, if you are me, you actually welcome it because you know it promotes disgust which will eventually lead us, if not to a new bull market, at least a strong bounce. However, the even better news is that the one stock that I have been promoting for weeks to my paid subscribers in the platinum chat room was up over 3.5% today. That is a nice divergence and continues its nice path of beating the market. This is not the only long like this. I am also long a swath of medical stocks that are doing well. Including one stock that has setup in a POTENTIAL (nothing is for EVER for sure) powerful bullish pattern that could make us subscribers even more money in this nasty market.
I am hearing so many UNsuccess stories of this market from players on message boards and free chat rooms that I wonder why people can not just stop trading. It is so simple to just wait for a bull market. If you are unhealthy, use this time to go to the gym and get a book on tape of some of the books I recommended last night or have in my book section. If not that, take the time to go to the gym and read IBD. Whatever you do, do not force yourself to watch this market intraday unless you must. We have quite a few professionals in my chat room that can handle watching the market go from euphoria back down to reality and sometimes the other way where a bad day turns into an incredibly bullish day. We can watch this without having the prices effect us. But too many of you live and die by the latest tick. That is a sure way to the nut house in this market environment.
How I Deal With A Market That Does Not Reward Trend Following
July 30, 2008 | Leave a Comment
I definitely, first off, do NOT watch CNBC. This should be the last thing all of you newer investors should do. A lot of people that watch CNBC tell me that they do not have enough time to read Investors Business Daily and instead find it easier to listen to the raving madness of Cramer. This is baloney. All you need is 20 minutes a day to read ‘the big picture,’ ‘the investors corners,’ and any of the other investors education articles.
If you do this every day, I realize that it will not be fast, but eventually you will learn the right way to make money in the market. The same way the greatest traders ever, which were detailed year by year by John Boik in his fabulous books, traded is the same way you should invest. If the greatest all invested a certain way, shouldn’t you to?
Some of you believe that you can outsmart the market or you are lazy and believe that a method that has been PROVEN not to work (using P/E ratios to buy and sell stocks) will work especially for you. This idea must be dropped and you must learn that some very smart people have learned that the best time to invest is ONLY when the market is in a clear uptrend. A few of the greatest of all time know to be long certain stocks even in a bear market. For instance, the smart money managers are long biotech and medical stocks right now while they sell financials. This is clear to those that are experienced but for the newbies this can be very confusing.
