I Love Trading/Investing With The Trend; There Is Never A Reason To Ask “Why Did That Happen?”

September 4, 2008

I watched CNBC for 20 minutes today and the crap on there doesn’t even compare to 10 minutes of my market analysis. I truly believe CNBC must be out to screw everyone over. They tell me to buy every stock breaking down on huge volume. Seems a little odd to me. Enjoy this video! You will learn a lot more. I am super busy tonight as I have fallen behind with my IBD’s and I had 8 new shorts to operate on my market platforms and write up in my shorts section. All of that plus a very busy chat room equals not enough time for a written commentary. But at least I have a nine minute video for you guys that I make for my subscribers right after the market close. The YouTube version is grainy and of way less quality but you will learn more watching this 10 minute video than you will by watching CNBC all day. What a FREAKING JOKE that channel is and always has been!!

Some things that worry me in this downtrend is that the NYSE short interest ratio keeps rising to a new all-time high of 17.95. That means it will take 18 days of average volume to get rid of all the shorts. It is shocking that this many short seller could be right but they have been shorting for so long that if the market falls apart I believe they may take their profits fast. Or they could hold on and if the market falls another 20% or something those shorts can help zoom the market a lot higher, if they decide to hold their shorts too long and the market starts an uptrend. Either way the very high short level has me shaking my head because normally the dumb money is always wrong. But it looks like this time it is right.

Don’t forget the bears have taken over the bulls again in the investors intelligent survey. But don’t think we have the fear for a bottom. It is only 40% bears to 37.8% bulls. This has to get much wider before we can call a bottom. We might be a little oversold on the short term but the weekly trend is very clear and all the fresh breakdowns in agriculture, gold, metals, silver, and everything else tech shows that a whole knew heavy downtrend is still possible.

Keep that cash level high like I have been saying for months or be careful with your short positions if you recently have started to go short, if you are a pro. Don’t go chasing something down 20% for five days in a row. Make sure the breakdown is fresh or else you hurt your odds exponentially. Aloha!!

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