I Told You So; Never EVER Fight The Trend Of The Overall Market–Which Is DOWN By The Way
October 15, 2008
Well I would like to say that I am shocked that the market reversed all the gains from Monday but anyone that reads this knows better. Not only was I not shocked but I basically “told you so.”
The stock market resumed its downtrend on Wednesday as it only took two days to destroy the gains from a record Monday. One thing that people must not have learned from the 2000-2002 bear market due to ignorance is that the biggest up days USUALLY occur in bear markets. If you get rid of the 1987 turn, you can pretty much see that the top 10 biggest up days on the SP, DJIA, and Nasdaq have almost all occurred in a bear market. This fact did not escape me and after the big up day on Monday I told my subscribers that the stocks in my scan on Monday looked WORSE THAN THEY DID ON FRIDAY! This was my tell that this was just a bounce and not the start of a new bull market.
I do not know what in the heck people were thinking but so many people went out to buy stocks on Tuesday morning that I am almost happy that today happened. I am happy because the people that bought stocks on Tuesday morning are the same people that just sold out after losing 35%+ in the current downtrend. These people need to learn that the market is not “a game” and that there are real rules to follow if you want to be a CONSISTENT winner and not a ONE TIME LUCKY GAMBLER like SO MANY are out there.
I told everyone that I had no CANSLIM stocks in leading sectors setting up in proper bases. I told everyone that I had ZERO “hot” charts (big volume, tight chart, proper price action, and max green BOP) out of 7050. I told everyone over 100 times HERE that “CASH IS KING.” I told everyone that I have more nice shorts showing up than longs (look at my returns in the comments). I told everyone, after Monday, that I had no full covers. I told everyone, after Monday, that I had NO NEW LONGS. I told everyone it was ugly. So if you still bought stocks on Tuesday and are now underwater, you need to go immediately to cash and if you are not paying for any solid market advice I have to say you need to start now! If not me, please pick RevShark. We are the only two that I believe have been right the whole year about the BIG trend.
I am going to end it there because if you have read the past three to four market commentary entries you already know where I stand and you know that I am short and in cash with only 3 longs (one is ANCI with a 60%+ gain). Those three longs are in the medical and food fields, btw, showing you that the few strong charts are in bear market leaders and not bull market leaders. Besides those three longs I list the stocks I am short and my total return on them this year. They have ALL been taken the past 1-6 months. So all the returns you see are UNDER a year. Sorry they are not daytrades but I like to MAKE MONEY and NOT lose it.
This market is sick and if you don’t understand that you should NEVER NEVER EVER buy the market when the price of all the indexes are below the 50 and 200 DMA’s and 30 week moving average then you simply have NEVER studied how the market actually works. Just one quick overview of the past 100 years can quickly show you by doing this one simple thing you can avoid ALL the horrible bear markets and be long all the bull markets. NEVER EVER buy stocks when the market is in a dowtrend. NEVER EVER short stocks that are in an uptrend. Why is this so hard for people to do? I will never understand the “crowd.” And I mean never.
If you all have subscriptions to Stocks and Commodities magazine I want to give you a heads-up on the November issue as I am the featured interview. I don’t know how many pages it is but I know it is more than four. If you are not familiar with my style and you are not a subscriber then this magazine article might help you in becoming a better investor/trader.
Nothing has changed the past day and EVERY COMMENT I made yesterday still applies to today. So if you did not read yesterday’s market commentary do that now, please watch the video below so you can see exactly where we are and where we are probably going, and be sure to check out my interview in Stocks and Commodities magazine. ALOHA!
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For those of you who are not familiar with what I am short, here are my shorts and the total return. I just took one new short which provided me with an immediate 6% gain. Since it is a new short and not up 15% yet, I will not post it. Here are the other 23 shorts (one is still not up 15%) and their total return since I went short:
top shorts and total return: MOS 60% HXM 53% SPG 25% POT 52% GGB 64% RIMM 43% CETV 55% SDA 59% ENB 15% CYT 51% APD 41% SBAC 50% SPW 54% CEO 40% AAPL 39% RDK 17% AMX 39% ARB 25% OKE 40% TITN 42% CEDC 40% CAJ 31% ATHR 39%
Hi Joshua,
I am a follower of your free postings, and I must admit I am quite close to becoming a member.
I have a quick question regarding your short positions listed above. Are these limited to your biggest gainers in recent weeks, or are these all of the short positions you have taken (minus the other sub-15% gainer you have not posted)?
Thanks for the insightful posts. A few more days and I think I’m going to bite the bullet and sign up.
Thanks!
Ashkan
I make it clear in my posting. I am short 25 stocks (I know I have said this multiple times in my videos this week and at least once on the commentary) and I list 23 of my 25 shorts. I can’t list the other two because they are not up 15% yet. I think I made this clear. THIS IS ALL OF MY SHORTS. And YES I AM THAT GOOD. Read the comments again and you will see that you are asking a question that is already answered.
I just took one new short which provided me with an immediate 6% gain. Since it is a new short and not up 15% yet, I will not post it. Here are the other 23 shorts (one is still not up 15%) and their total return since I went short.
…doesn’t that =25. I mean right here I make it clear. I have taken a new short, I am listing 23 winners, and I am not listing 1 because it is not up 15% yet. That equals 25. If I was short other stocks not up 15% wouldn’t I have put (sixteen are not up 15%)???? I think so.
This is why you must PAY ATTENTION to the details. In the stock market you can not miss the details or else you will not make money.
Why wait a few more days?
By waiting you just missed a lot of big money making short positions.
BTW, even if it was limited to my biggest gainers, wouldn’t that still be incredible? LOL. I am just saying.
Thank you for your comments.
also the video is of Wednesday even though the open says Tuesday. I do not make the openings where you see the date but I will say I apologize for the error. The rest of the video as you can hear via my voice is of Wedensday’s stock market session for Thursday.