Market Quietly Consolidates Yesterday’s Gains

April 2, 2008

There was nothing great or horrible about today. The only thing I can say is that the retards who told me to buy stocks at the open sure were wrong. I do not daytrade and anyone that was trading like this today has a lot of work to do to become a great trader/investor.

The pullback in the spoos (up on IBD) and small gains (on tcnet; on IBD and RM I show small losses) by the nyse and nassy were very solid overall as volume did dip. However, a lot of strong CANSLIM stocks that I went long yesterday went from looking great with strong gains to looking OK with good gains by the close. This is not how leading stocks act at the start of a brand new nine-month “time to get filthy rich” bull market. This is instead how bear market rallies develop. Could it turn into a bull market? Sure. But it is still going to have to prove itself by making strong gains on heavy to huge volume. Volume under the 50 day volume average is your clear tell that only amateurs are trading (you and me). The professional money has only come off the sidelines four times last month in the Nassy.

Until these guys start moving the market one way or the other, you would be FOOLISH to load up on anything long or short. Nothing has changed today from yesterday. I still have NO HOT CANSLIM or speculative long charts. I only have about 50 really good looking charts. And even the best looking ones are losing technical strength. So this is still not a market I have ANY interest in being heavily long. I remain around 70% cash with ONLY 5% short (how does this make me a perma-bear, Wendy/Sandy Wright?) with the rest of the port in longs.

The fact that we held on to yesterday’s gains on lower volume is overall bullish action in the short-term. Light volume minor pullbacks or consolidations are exactly what you want to see. However, you also want to see higher volume on the rallies and right now we do not have that which means there is NO WAY it is safe enough to build longer term positions here. If you are a daytrader, whatever. Do the stupid game you do. I have no interest AND NEITHER DID THE GREATEST STOCK MARKET INVESTORS OF ALL TIME!

We still can not build on strength and the lack of HOT charts setting up still have me cautious overall as I never trust a low volume rally. However, if RIMM can get the bullish mood back tomorrow and if volume comes in higher AND I CAN FIND AT LEAST SOMETHING SETTING UP IN A NICE ROUND, MAX GREEN BOP, HEAVY ACCUMULATION FILLED BASE, I would love to get long stocks that look like my ‘past big winners.’ However, I will not compromise my methodology simply for the sake of trading. And the fact that there are no GREAT charts out there has me a bit nervous that this extremely overbought market can continue to rally. I am not all of a sudden going to start bottom fishing with that backdrop.

I have a lot of charts that with another month of bullish consolidation with green to max green BOP could turn out to be fantastic longs in the future. But for now B** and B*** are the only two stocks that come close to looking anywhere near-perfect. The problem is that the bases are a bit wild (not smooth and round) and simply are not long enough. So it would be at least a month before these OK charts turn into great charts. Another chart that looks really great now that I am long is G**. Too bad the security that I am long is too thin and the breakout is from a volatile base or else I might have found my first perfect chart since APPY and RICK late last year.

So to wrap this up tonight, remember leading stocks for a second day in a row still showed lackluster action that should have NONE of us professionals excited. Most of our leaders are stocks that we are all very familiar with especially if you were long oil, steel, oil, and metal ore stocks back in 2004-2006 LIKE ME. While Cramer is JUST now figuring out AUY, I was already long this one for a 138% gain from 12/1/2005 to 5/9/2006. My recent long was at the time OK but the volume was NOT accumulation after all, It turned out to be churning and now the stock is selling off on HUGE distribution. A weekly chart makes this clear and I believe AUY might just be Cramer’s next C, SGP, and IMA. I have saved you from those three. And I am trying to save you from this fourth one, if you are one of those long AUY now.

Some leading stocks that are leading right now are FST, SWN, SII, TISI, ATLS, ATN, VIP, and one of my FAVORITE longs from yesterday that was up 4.86% today. I am sure this solar stock, if this is a bull market after all, will do much better than URS, BYI, LEH, or any other SHIT bank stock that so many amateurs are focused on.

Speaking of solar stocks, this would be the one area of the market I would love to see leading as this is a VERY innovative and technology based exciting industry. However, besides the stock we went long in good size (for a bear market) yesterday, JASO FSLR CSIQ which are the big leaders rallied on lower volume, just like the day before. But TSL SOLF ASTI are all making strong gains on heavy volume. Overall, I must say the way these charts are building their bases now, if the market has bottomed, in about a month, these are going to be some HOT charts.

The problem with these right now, like I said, is that the low volume rally in the leaders is much lower than the huge volume on the selloff that led to this recent rally. ASTI on an arithmetic chart (a great winner of mine with a 180% gain from 9/4/07 to 12/28/07–sadly this was a very tiny position as it had fooled me four times before back in April 07 and June to July 07. CSIQ is starting to build a HOT green BOP filled base but the base is too deep and choppy near the bottom. This stock will not be nice until it can calm down and chill out. FSLR is wedging on VERY LOW volume after a very heavy selloff. I need a low volume pullback and then a heavy volume bounce before going long. TSL is just horrifically too deep within its base to be considered for any position. The same goes with SOLF. And JASO is also way too deep and needs more work on its base. We need to see more heavy volume on the rally and less volume on the selloff. Right now, our best innovative technology driven sector is looking better but besides the one stock I am long nothing looks right yet. Everything needs more time.

Aloha and I will see you in the peaceful chat room where everyone is grown up enough to not randomly post comments on issues and subjects they know nothing about. The comments will remain disabled for at least 30-60 days after a horrible human named Wendy/Sandy Wright made a COMPLETELY ABSURD statement/comment on me being a “perma-bear” and that I would “lose you money” when I have a LIVE-REALTIME 2005-2008 track record (mauitrader.blogspot.com) that proves I have made a lot of money while finding more than enough winners to have made a lot of other people rich.

People like sandy_wright67@yahoo.com makes this not fun. Like I said, I have been through a LOT in my life. I should NOT be alive!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! There is NO FREAKING way I should be here. If my dad would NOT have been a doctor, you would NOT be reading this today. Another doctor KILLED ME for almost two minutes (flatline–no pulse at all) and my dad STORMED into the OR and SAVED MY LIFE!!!! A simple apendix surgery turned into a life-and-death situation after the doctor cut my mesentery artery in half. Besides that I have had a gun to my head and two MAJOR car accidents, before the age of 20, that have left permanent injuries for the rest of my life. And you think I am going to waste my day on pathetic human garbage like Wendy/Sandy Wright? No. I would rather continue to thank God in Heaven for my wonderful cake life on Maui, scan my beautiful charts that I love so much, enjoy my life, enter my orders, and then help everyone take their own financial independence into their own hands.

I love surfing, I love the sun, I love the ocean, I love my charts, I love the stock market, I love watching sports on TV, I used to love looking at hot girls (I have a GREAT gf so there is no need), I love snorkeling, and I love being over 6000 miles away from NYC and still outperform the jokesters that work on the floor. I love my life. Why or how some of you can come in here and post the shit you do without first studying my past big winners and reasearching on your own my 2004-2007 past big winners for yourself by doing a SIMPLE commentary search (at the end of almost EVERY!!!!! commentary I post my best current holdings) is just severely depressing. It doesn’t happen often but when it does it makes me realize why SO FEW do what I do. It isn’t worth the BS some horrible humans like Wendy/Sandy throw my way.

My life is a living testament to this strategy. I have turned NOTHING into something. And do NOT think my dad (the doctor) had anythign to do with this. He died WORTHLESS!!!!!! Broke as a joke. The house, his clinic, his cars were all taken to pay off debt that STILL EXIST to this day. His death was my nightmare as he opened a CC in my name and moved balances from his last wifes account to my account. So before my dad died broke, he decided to leave me with $75,000 in Beth Hayes’s debt. And you wonder why I don’t put up with the shit from HUMAN GARBAGE like Wendy/Sandy? My life has been FUCKING HELL. Thank God I was good looking and a great athlete, or God knows I WOULD BE DEAD and NONE of you would EVER be able to pounce on the next TASR as I still have not found too many (Dan Zanger, James DePorre, William J O’Neal and the rest at IBD are the few I know) that can find these winners. In every powerful bull market, so far, I have done well and I pray that we can have one within the next 6 months to a year so that I can help all of you make your wildest dreams come true and you take financial independence by your own hands.

If it seems like I am mean, you simply don’t know me, and that is a shame. If you think Chef Gordon Ramsey and Bobby Knight are too much, then stop reading my site. You get what you get. I am NOT the same SCAM artist that exist up and down wall and broad. I am 29 going on 13 and I have a lot of money. Maybe when I am 50 and running OPM I can be nice and sweet for you soft newbies that are clueless to this methodology that HAS PROVEN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! to work since 1880. The greatest stocks, every year, every decade, in every generation show the same fundamentals and chart patterns. There is nothing new under the sun. What worked in 1880 will work in 2080.

Right now, this market is completely OK with me. In fact, I hope we go nowhere for the next 12 months. That way I KNOW my beautiful, max green BOP, heavy accumulation stocks that build perfect bases with very strong fundamentals will not only show up but will return MASSIVE gains as I am sure going nowhere would build some kind of fear as folks realize the market is “never going to rally again.” Then those people can give up and I can get my next TASR USNA SINA SOHU NTES SSYS EVOL EPIC IST FMDAY DSTI AFSI BOOM ERS AAPL FSLR KNOL EGHT HRZ ATVI CRUS MGIC ISSI COCO MGIC PARD ZEUS AFSI TESO PTT MAMA RICK APPY LMLP MRVC GNSS stocks (these are my HUGE winners that were big positions from 1999-2008).

Aloha and I will see you in the chat room where I THANKFULLY due common sense and maturity do NOT have to deal with the freebie free-for-all that goes on here, in Rev’s blog, Cramer’s blog, and other websites. ALOHA!!!!!!!!!!!!! Pray for surf. I need something more exciting than this market and all the babies that are bitching about it.

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Market Commentary