Problematic Follow-Through Day Is Not All It Appears To Be; We Have Gone NOWHERE In Two Months, Proving Cash Is King!
March 21, 2008
A lot of people have recently just gotten used to being in cash as the bear market has finally convinced some that the best side is the sidelines. But as soon as a lot of these people realize it is best to park their cash, all of a sudden we have the market following-through on its rally that started eight days ago on 3/11. That is when the DJIA made its lows, reversing off of them and closing higher at the HOD by the EOD. While every index undercut those lows on 3/17, the DJIA did not and instead held. This has now led to today’s 2.16% rally on very strong volume. A weekly chart of the DJIA since 3/11 is very bullish. However, when we take a step back and look at where the index is coming from, it isn’t that impressive yet.
But it is important to pay attention to the market right now as things are lining up for at least a powerful short-term rally. When we look at the put/call ratio we can see that on a huge up day that it jumped to 1.12 which is a very high level of fear on such a bullish day. That tells me that market players expect this market to move lower on the short-term. Too bad these guys are almost always wrong. Therefore, the extremely bearish bets on such a strong day is a bullish item short-term.
The investors intelligence survey shows more bears than bulls for the second straight week, with bears beating bulls 45% to 31%. This is a very wide margin and considering we have a high put/call and a follow-through I think it is very important to make sure you are not overextended to the bear side. Just on Thursday it appeared it was all over for the market. How amazing that on the VERY NEXT day all looks well. But such is the nature of this market.
And even though I have been pounding the table telling you that cash is king, it is time to start looking for potential setups in CANSLIM quality longs that are in well formed bases. Right now, there are not a lot out there but there are a few stocks out there that are starting to show up that I would like to get long if they could quiet down, move sideways on lower volume, and breakout on strong volume with BOP green to max green the past few months. Some are starting to show up but the few that are are NOT in your usual powerful bull market leading groups. They are in the small banks, savings & loan, medical, manufacturing, business services, auto/truck-parts, tobacco, and transportation-railroad stocks. These are not the exciting innovative groups that lead most long-term bull markets. These are the groups that normally show up in bear markets. However, during the bear market rallies, these stocks always do very well.
But how well these will do with a VIX at 26 is the question. I have a bad feeling I know how well they will do. During the last bear market we had in stocks, I still had no problem finding a few stocks here and there that produce good gains. But besides COIN which rallied 58% in three weeks, I have not had any big winners in this bear. This is unheard of. And it isn’t me that is the problem. The problem is the market. I finally have a few really green charts that are looking good. But usually, even in bear markets, I will have a couple of stocks that have produced 75% or more by now. This market is simply THE WORST market in twelve years that I have been a part of.
Now, like I said, there finally are a couple of chart that have shown up that are full of accumulation and max green BOP. But the way the market is still acting it is very hard to “load-up” on these. So I am going to continue to keep it cautious but my first long position over $60,000 has finally been taken for the first time since September. That means that I am finally beginning to think that maybe we could sustain a rally here. The good news about my methodology is that if this trend reverses, I can be out with less than an 8% loss on both stocks. If they don’t blast-off and make immediate big gains, there is no reason to be long and they will be cut.
I love being a bull and if this market can continue to build on these gains WITH HEAVY accumulation then I will embrace this rally with arms wide open. But for now, I am as skeptical as you can be. This is due to the constant flooding of emails from bottom callers (which oddly enough don’t happen anymore) since the November top till about two weeks ago that we were bottoming. Now that the donkey losers that make up this group of emailers have stopped with their FACTLESS crap, I am ready for a bounce. But the fact that everyone is still looking for a bottom makes me believe that there is almost NO WAY that this is the bottom.
I have never seen a prolonged selloff where everyone is bottom calling actually bottom during the time all of these amateurs are calling for a bottom. After a very long bull market, where every single leader of that uptrend gets broken, it usually take a long time to form a bottom. If everyone I talked to was telling me that they were scared to death of a financial collapse and that they believe they should be selling stocks left and right, then I would be looking for a bottom. But everyone I know wants us to bottom now so we can go back to getting long GOOG and AAPL for the next attack on the old highs.
It would be nice to bottom here and then in about a month (it would take that long) start going long a bunch of stocks that look like all the patterns in ‘my past big winners’ but I just don’t think I am going to get that opportunity yet. Before that could happen in 2003, we had to have a horrible 2 1/2 year bear market. And before those perfect beauties of 1999 setup, we had a Y2K fear that sent companies investing in technology at a breakneck speed. This along with the bear market of 1998 (LTCM fiasco) helped create a ton of near-perfect to perfect charts. Since I doubt we will see another 1999 setup until I am, maybe, 100 years old, then we probably need a very long bear market to create the charts we saw in 2003.
I know a lot of people do not want to wait that long, but if that is how long we must take before we can get the next TASR, EPIC, EVOL, FMDAY, SSYS, TRAD, USNA, SINA, SOHU, NTES, FARO, and SIGM setups, then dang it, I will wait as long as I have to. A lot of people want to make money right now. But as those impatient and historically ignorant traders do damage to their account (like yours truly) by forcing trades that should never be forced (I am not forcing them, the market is just that hard!!), the smartest traders are in 100% cash loading it up for the moment when the stocks above are waiting to be taken.
Like I keep saying, you do not have to bottom tick the lows or bottom tick the day the market hits the lows to make a ton of money. EGHT and FMDAY both produced 300% gains in one and four months respectively. Both of these stocks STARTED their move in late October/early November; ONE FULL YEAR AFTER THE OCTOBER 2002 BOTTOM!!!!!! So the FOOLS, MORONS, IDIOTS, and SCUMBAGS on wall street that tell you that you have to buy the bottom can go F themselves. These idiots can buy THE BOTTOM TICK and they will not come close to TOUCHING my returns by the EOY. The scumbags like to brag when they get the bottom right. Too bad they never remind you about the other six times they got it REAL WRONG.
Calling a bottom here makes more sense than any of the other attempts, as we had the VIX hit 35 intraday (still below 40 and the last indicator to get extreme enough to have a great low), the investors intelligence bears take the bulls, and we have a put/call that has been pervasively around the 1 area for months now. So it makes sense for the donkeys to bottom call here now. However, do they not see that there are problems all over the index charts, besides the bad leadership and destruction in past leaders underneath the indexes.
My first problem with becoming a bottom caller is that it only works 10% of the time and those are odds I will NEVER take. Therefore, I never will bottom call. But I believe in my multiple years of trading FULL TIME I have seen many tops and bottoms during that time. I have learned that calling a bottom before prices can at least get over the most recent resistance is a recipe for disaster. Sadly, the constant bottom callers never have to eat the egg on their face. They just conveniently forget and move on.
On the NYSE, I love the volume I see on the January and Friday’s lows. The huge volume surge along with the accumulation leading up to Friday’s move is very bullish. But that volume is still leaving much to the imagination as the selloff in January came on heavier volume than the uptrend from January to February. That was followed by heavier volume selling that received some sneaky accumulation during that time. At best, this index is very mixed with the extremely short term looking bullish compared to the overall downtrend from November which is still VERY much in tact. Especially with price below the 50 DMA.
This almost exact same kind of action is happening on the Nasdaq also. The volume near these lows have been incredible but the overall downtrend is still very much alive with the price below the 50 DMA. The bottom line is calling a bottom UNTIL YOU ACTUALLY KNOW it is a bottom is foolish and if you are one of the fools that think you must buy the bottom to make the big money you really are ignorant and need to study the past big stock market leaders like CSCO’s 80,000% gain, SCHW’s 10,000% gain, or MSFT’s 10,000% gain. Do you think you needed to bottom tick to score big gains from those winners? Of course not. So don’t believe the MORONS that tell you you need to be buying here. You can wait. In fact, I hope we go on to crash just to show these fools how dangerous the verbal shit that flows from their mouth really is. If we bottom, I can hold off for months!!! and still CRUSH ALL OF YOU who think we need to buy “the exact bottom.” You all have SEVERE historical mental problems.
All I am going to do is continue to look for my hot charts, as I know when they show up, and if the market is in an uptrend, the coast will be clear for me to go all-in with my 2 to 1 and 4 to 1 margin accounts. There is no need to buy here with all the carnage out there. The greatest traders of ALL-TIME waited for trends to be confirmed up or down before making any big bets.
That can proven by those who made big recent bets in gold and oil. My God it looked like gold was about ready to explode to the upside and become the next bubble. But it in fact was already in a mini-bubble and now we can only cut our losses and wonder about what could have been. The most important point that came out of the gold selloff is that even leadership is NOT safe in this market. If you can’t find comfort in your leaders, even in a bear market, you know that you have some very serious issues to deal with. So calling this a bottom, IMO, is the most ignorant thing you can do after getting the last six to nine calls wrong.
Some interesting items of interest from Thursday’s session includes oil falling to $101.84 and gold falling to $920. Gold just touched $1020 intraday on Wednesday (I believe) and since then has spent its time selling off hard. This is a clear sign of a sector that is putting in its top. This comes with oil stocks recently reversing hard and EVERY chemical-fertilizer stock FINALLY rolling over on strong distribution and starting its selloff on heavier volume with low volume rallies. They are not ready to be shorted in bulk yet, but if the market does not breakout above the 50 DMA on heavier volume soon, confirming the FTD, then it will only be a matter of time before the ugly charts in the chemical, oil, and gold group really get nasty. Breakout fakeout reversals are NEVER good for the market, when they happen in leading industry groups.
However, like I said, if the market can build on these short-term gains, I would love to start finding some more stocks that are as green as NEU. If a bunch of charts start showing up in industry groups that are FLYING up the list of top industry groups in IBD’s 197 group list, then I would love to jump back into the market long and strong. But for now, we are lacking any leaders. Every time a new leader gets rotated into the top spot they WHACK it. In my recent RM columns I have posted the charts and stocks that I am finding very attractive and that are also the current leaders. However, the small-regional banks and savings & loans are not going to produce any 300-500% winners in 12 months or less. So we better hope for higher quality or else we are going to be sitting on our hands a lot long than expected. Well, expected by readers. I am ready for a two year bear market or for the bear market to end today.
All I need to know it is over are more charts setting up like the stocks you see in my ‘past big winners’ or like TESO, AFSI, HRZ, PTT, APPY, CVO, MT (IST), BOOM, ZEUS, IHS, MA, CCC, TNH, MOS, OMTR, or ERS from 2004-2007 that I have not posted yet. I KNOW HOW TO FIND AND BUY THE BEST STOCKS THAT PRODUCE THE BIGGEST GAINS IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME IN ANY BULLISH MARKET (YOU DON’T NEED TO PICK AND GUESS AT THE BOTTOMS). I HAVE NEVER SEEN A MARKET LIKE THIS OVER THE PAST SIX MONTHS IN OVER 12 YEARS OF INVESTING EXPERIENCE. THERE STILL IS NOTHING OUT THERE to get insanely excited about besides one stock that I have recently started going long and adding to. If you are not a subscriber, there is no way I am telling you what this near perfect stock is. But it needs a bit more time moving sideways, another pop, and it would be PERFECT! If I see more setup like that I will be more than happy to rejoin the bulls. For now, that is not happening.
We have not had a market like this since 1938 as there have been 28 days this year where the market has moved at least 1% by the close. Nothing is going to make sense in that kind of volatility, unless every day was up or down. Right now, the market is just trying to wash the weak blood out so that when the fresh faces and cash heavy traders return they can come over and pick up the easy cash in the corner and profit handsomely via the smart money that is trying to pick the bottoms like the professional-amateurs they will always be. That is why they have to keep their job at the trading desk; they would NEVER last on their own.
But for now, until I see more technology and innovative groups make their way to the top of the IBD industry group list with some very green chart setups, there is no way I am joining the bottom callers with small regional-banks, tobacco, medical, savings & loans, and beaten up junk sectors leading this rally. WMT and NKE are not my ideas of “fresh, new” leadership. V is my idea of new leadership. Hopefully, this could be my next MA 340%-plus winner. But unless the market continues to trend higher, V will more than likely suffer the same fate the market does. Still it is nice to see an IPO price and run after the public offering.
Until I get more confirmation on the upside, I am simply not going to fall in love with this FTD. I recognize it and realize we have one and that it is time to start looking for stocks that are green like NEU that are setting up or breaking out of well-formed bases like the cup, cup with handle, double bottom, flat base, high-tight-flag, saucer, saucer with handle, or three-week tight pattern. This market is not a market to be overleveraged. Keep the longs small, keep the shorts small (newbies avoid going short the rallies until you have a track record of making money going long), and keep the cash VERY VERY HIGH.
This is the most cash I have had since 2002-2003. When the 2003 follow-through happened I was long 35 stocks. By the end of 2003, I was long over 90. You don’t have to be all-in long AT the bottom. You have plenty of time to get very long. GO STUDY 2003 in TCNet and learn for yourself that you don’t have to bottom call to get FILTHY RICH. My ‘past big winners’ should PROVE this! If you still are not convinced, please, NEVER come back to my site. Mahalo and aloha! I will see you in the chat room where everyone is in control, thanks to the CANSLIM methodology. God bless you IBD, O’Neil and the CANSLIM system!!!
Pray for surf!
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love your insight Josh, curious as to why you are constantly bashing Jim Cramer when you are writing a column on HIS web site.
I am not bashing. I am telling the truth. It is not his website. has he made you money? where are all of his 100% returns? where are all of my -50% losses?
oh yeah. he can’t produce ANY significant returns and I would never lose you the kind of money that monkey loses players.
do you want me to be like barack obama and just lie about me liking him. i dont dislike the man but if you think his advice is good advice…God bless you! LOL.
Cramer has done nothing but break people. I wish my more experienced guys would help defend me but that is always asking too much.
Just read Cramer’s blogs comments. The guy HURTS EVERYONE!!! The fucking donkey has been calling a bottom since November!!!! The fucking donkey told you to buy BSC C IMA SGY. I told you to short all of them!
He is a joke! and he hurts TSCM by being there. they think that he is good because he has a lot of page views. too bad he has only LOST his readers a LOT of money the past six months. He is a danger and RM is not smart for focusing so much on him.
it should be Rev’s site!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
you sir have a killer blog. i have an “investment club” lmao me,my housekeeper, gardener and 2 cats.
anyways my question is how to you short a stock. Example bear sterns before the bailout. example on an online broker scotstrade what would you do? also who would you recommend for an online stock brokerage? Whats your op on the bailout was it needed? you soooo right about crammer. If I ever can be any help I stand at your command sir!
I want to make one more thing clear to all of the realmoney.com newbies who are bombarding me with emails that are doing NOTHING but showing your ignorance:
You guys who are here reading this…I AM NOT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! GIVING YOU TIPS! DAMN IT! I AM BRINGING YOU INTO MY TRADING ROOM. I AM GIVING YOU MY THOUGHTS. I AM SHOWING YOU MY TRADES. YOU ARE IN MY TRADING ROOM. I AM NOT HERE TO HAND HOLD YOU TO RICHES. YOU MUST CREATE YOUR OWN RICHES BY FOLLOWING SOMEONE WHO HAS CREATED HIS OWN RICHES BY HELPING HIMSELF!!! NO ONE GAVE ME THIS. I EARNED IT. LOOK AT MY ‘PAST BIG WINNERS.’ THEY FREAKING SPEAK FOR THEMSELVES. I HAVE NEVER MET ANYONE THAT CAN RETURN WHAT I CAN RETURN IN BULL MARKETS (F BEAR MARKETS; THE KEY IS TO KEEP YOUR MONEY).
WHEN I WAS 18 I WAS FEEDING MY 65 YR OLD MENTOR STOCK PICKS. BUT THE LAST THING I AM DOING IS GIVING YOU TIPS. THIS IS MY TRADING ROOM. MY LONGS (37) SHORTS (OVER 50) AND MY 60% CASH POSITION IS NOT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! A RECOMMENDATION FOR YOU. I DONT KNOW YOU. SOME OF YOU ARE CRAZY AND WILL NEVER MAKE IT. SOME OF YOU ARE BETTER THAN ME AND WILL KILL MY RETURNS. SOME OF YOU DON’T GET BUYING 10% OF ONE STOCK AND ONLY 1% IN ANOTHER (WHAT IS WRONG WITH YOU?) BUT THERE ARE NOW TOO MANY OF YOU IN HERE. I CAN’T MAKE ALL OF YOU HAPPY. THIS IS JUST A REMINDER TO THE NEWBIES WHO DO NOT KNOW:
THIS IS NOT A STOCK PICKING SERVICE
YOU ARE ENTERING THE MIND AND TRADING ROOM OF SOMEONE THAT DOES THIS FOR A LIVING ON A FREAKING ISLAND 3000 MILES AWAY FROM THE MAINLAND USA IN THE MIDDLE OF THE OCEAN (NOWHERE).
MY PAST BIG WINNERS PROVE IT ALL! NO ONE CAN TOUCH MY RETURNS AT REALMONEY.COM OR ALMOST ANYWHERE ELSE ON THE INTERNET. THOSE READING ME BACK IN 2006 AND 2007 AT IP AND BWT GOT TO SEE FOR THEMSELVES: AFSI TESO APPY HRZ PTT(VCGH). THOSE READING THE BLOG THE YEAR BEFORE THEN ALSO GOT: ZEUS CVO BOOM ERS. THIS IS WHAT I DO! THIS IS MY MO! FINDING THE BEST STOCKS THAT PRODUCE THE BIGGEST GAINS IN THE SHORTEST AMOUNT OF TIME WITH THE LEAST VOLATILITY. THAT IS MY BAG BABY!!
IF I HAD IT MY WAY, I WOULD NOT BE DOING THIS. BUT THIS IS A HIGHER CALLING. IF YOU HAVE THREE NEAR-DEATH EXPERIENCES (INCLUDING TWO WHERE YOU FLAT-LINE FOR OVER A MINUTE EACH) AND LIVE THROUGH THEM ALL!!!!! AND DECIDE THAT YOU ARE NOT GOING TO DO SOMETHING AT A HIGHER CALLING THEN SHAME ON YOU. THIS IS NOT THE END, THIS IS THE START. ON MY DEATHBED I MADE A DECISION TO MAKE AN IMPACT ON OTHERS LIFE VIA THE STOCK MARKET. I WAS 17 THEN, THE NEXT YEAR I WAS IN NYC AROUND SOME BIG MONEY.
I HAVE ALREADY CREATED SOME WEALTH TRADING STOCKS AND IT STILL BORES ME. THIS HELPS OTHERS AND THIS EXCITES ME BUT I AM DOING IT MY WAY!!! NOT YOUR WAY OR WALL STREET’S WAY. IF YOU THINK YOU ARE HERE AND YOU ARE GOING TO GET THE SAME BULLSHIT HERE AS YOU SEE EVERYWHERE ELSE YOU ARE WAY OFF. I DONT WATCH CNBC (EVER!!!), I DONT READ THE WALL STREET JOURNAL, I DONT READ BARRONS, AND TALKING ABOUT REAL ESTATE MAKES ME WANT TO PUKE!!!!
YOU ARE GETTING IT REAL AND RAW. I MAY NOT BE A “REAL” SURFER BUT I HAVE A SURFER MENTALITY. I HATE WALL STREET AND LOVE KNOWING THAT I AM TAKING THE MONEY AWAY FROM EVERYONE ON WALL STREET. I ONLY WISH I COULD TAKE IT ALL AWAY FROM EVERYONE ON THE CORNER OF WALL AND BROAD AND GIVE IT TO ALL OF THE POOR PEOPLE THAT BUST THEIR ASS AND HAVE NOTHING TO SHOW FOR IT (THIS DOES NOT INCLUDE LAZY PEOPLE; I DONT CARE ABOUT THEM).
BUT THERE ARE TOO MANY CROOKS THAT KNOW HOW TO RIG THE GAME IN THERE FAVOR, ON WALL. YOU CAN’T BEAT THEM. BUT I CAN TEACH YOU HOW TO TAKE A LOT OF THEIR MONEY BY USING A METHODOLOGY THAT HAS PROVEN TO WORK SINCE 1880. HOW CAN YOU ALL ARGUE WITH HISTORY? YET SOME OF YOU STILL DO.
I HOPE YOU NEW GUYS GET THIS. BECAUSE THERE ARE PEOPLE THAT HAVE KNOWN ME SINCE 2004 AND I KNOW PEOPLE IN THIS GAME THAT ARE STILL AROUND THAT REMEMBER ME FROM 1998. JUST BECAUSE YOU HAVE NOT HEARD OF ME AND I LOOK YOUNG DOESN’T MEAN I AM NOT GOING TO BE ONE OF THE BEST. HOWEVER, I WILL NEVER BE THE NEXT CRAMER….I HAVE TOO MUCH RESPECT FOR MYSELF.
I LOVE ALL OF YOU GUYS LIKE FAMILY. THIS IS JUST THE START. THERE WILL BE MANY MORE BULL MARKETS TO COME. WHAT IS GREAT IS THAT THE SMART ACTIVE INVESTORS THAT KEEP THEIR POWDER DRY DURING THIS TOUGH PERIOD WILL BE AROUND TO GET THE EGHT 300% GAIN IN ONE MONTH OR THE 11 MONTH 2,800% GAIN IN TASR….OR ANY OF THE OTHER 60 PLUS STOCKS THAT I HAVE HELD THAT HAVE PRODUCED A 300% GAIN OR MORE SINCE 1998.
HOW MANY OF YOU ARE JUST NOW FOCUSING ON IHS, MA, OR CCC? I AM STILL LONG MA FOR A 343% GAIN, IHS FOR A 246% GAIN, AND CCC FOR A 88% GAIN.
CRAMER WILL NEVER EVER!!!!! GET YOU A 343% GAIN IN UNDER 1 1/2 YEARS. I LOVE CRAMER, BUT THIS IS JUST THE TRUTH. IT IS NOT GOOD TO TAKE 3 LOSSES AT 50% AND THEN HAVE ONE WINNER AT 25%.
GREAT FUN FACT: JUST OPENED AN ACCOUNT FOR A FRIEND BACK ON NOVEMBER 1ST (NICE TIMING HUH?!! :(). HE TOLD ME TO BE VERY AGGRESSIVE. SO TO SAY THE LEAST, EVEN IN THIS MARKET, I HAVE BEEN. SINCE NOV 1ST, I HAVE AN 11% LOSS. THIS MIGHT SOUND BAD TO YOU BUT REALIZE THE NASDAQ IS DOWN 21% DURING THAT TIME. SO IT IS BAD BUT NOT HORRIBLE. I AM STILL BEATING THE MARKET AND A 11% LOSS FOLLOWED BY A 200-500% RETURN IN THE NEXT BULL (MY AVERAGE FOR 98, 99, 03, AND 04–MY BEST FOUR YEARS) MARKET IS EXCELLENT!!! THOSE THAT DON’T GET IT, SHOULDN’T BE TRADING STOCKS.
THIS IS MY WORST SIX MONTH PERFORMANCE TO-DATE SINCE APRIL 1999. THAT IS NOT A FUNCTION OF ME AS YOU CAN NOT FIND A SIGNLE MUTUAL FUND UP IN THE GROWTH CATEGORY THE PAST THREE AND THERE ARE ONLY EIGHT HIGHER OVER THE PAST SIX MONTHS OUT OF 200 PLUS.
HOWEVER, I UNDERSTAND THIS IS THE MARKET. SOME OF YOU THINK IT IS YOU AND THAT YOUR TRADING SUCKS. SHEESH, NO WONDER IT IS DANGEROUS TO BE A NEWBIE AND TRADE. CASH IS KING, UNTIL YOU REALIZE THIS MARKET IS HARD BECAUSE OF THE WAY IT IS TRADING; NOT BECAUSE THE WAY YOU ARE TRADING.
I HOPE THIS CLEARS SOME THINGS UP. I HAVE BEEN WANTING TO RANT AND I NOW HAVE. THIS HAS BEEN ON MY CHEST ALL WEEK AS I HAVE BECOME VERY!!! DISAPPOINTED WITH THE QUALITY OF EMAILS/QUESTIONS I HAVE RECEIVED. I DON’T THINK I EVER EXPECTED THE AMOUNT OF NEWBIES TO SIGN UP TO BE SO HIGH. BUT IT IS AND AS WE NEAR 200 MEMBERS WHERE WE WERE JUST AT 60, I BELIEVE, IN JANUARY (WE JUST STARTED IN OCTOBER) I MUST SAY THIS NEEDED TO BE SAID.
ALOHA AND I LOVE YOU ALL. NOW STOP ASKING ME SO MANY DAMN STUPID QUESTIONS AND START DOING SOME OF YOUR OWN DD!!!! AND ALSO STOP BASHING ME. MY FUCKING RECORD, I AM SURE, DESTROYS 99% OF YOU READING THIS. SO GET OFF OF MY BACK YOU 1%!!!!!!!!!!!! YOU ARE RUINING IT FOR THE OTHER 99%.
I JUST DON’T KNOW HOW YOU CAN SEE THE SAME CHART PATTERN OVER AND OVER AND SEE MY OWN RECORDS OF TRADES AND STILL QUESTION THIS. IT IS DRAINING MY ENERGY.
THANK GOD IT WAS GOOD FRIDAY. I LOVE YOU GOD!! IT WAS GOOD!
From James “RevShark” DePorre:
My hunt for good longer term charts continues to yield very little. The vast majority of the upside in this market is being driven by bounces in broken stocks rather than by continued accumulation of strong stocks. That is why there are so few good entry points to be found unless you are doing very short term trading.
Alright, looking forward then. I’m starting to learn about what to put in my scans and might consider a small buy or two next week if we’re seeing some kind of short term rally building. Here’s a few (below) that have shown up.
Feel free to give it with both barrels if you think any of these is a terrible choice. I’d rather take abuse than a loss! I know I’ll have to wait for a couple of these to see if they pull back on low volume.
OFG
SKIL
IIVI
FPIC
FRME
VLNC was also on the list. Does anyone know the story with VLNC? Lots of accumulation but doesn’t seem to fit canslim eps yet. Having said that it appears to be expanding. Also daily volume is over 2mill, so I don’t know if it could ever become one of those under-the-radar “big winners”.
Here’s a summary:
They make a battery similar to current laptop style lithium ion batteries, but instead they’re using a safter lithium phosphate material. They argue that it’s safer in the event of short circuits and they say it will work well for hybrid vehicles that could be involved in accidents. In the past, according to wikipedia, it has been hard to get the same power out of phosphate batteries for the same size of lithium ion battery, but that appears to be out of the way now and it’s roughly equivalent.
There are other articles if you google them. Since the EPS is currently not great and there’s been a lot of buying, maybe it’s best to wait for the next quarter for signs of life. If they do become the battery of choice for hybrids then there’s a lot of upside there. They’re only a half-billion market cap right now.
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More power to you Josh! I’ve been reading your weekly for two years, building up cash. I’ve been learning alot from what you say, reading what you recommend. When this market starts tending upward, Ill be purchasing your premium service and riding the next bull market to incredible returns. Muhalo!
“When asked if there was a technique for making money on the stock exchange, Nathan Rothschild, the highly successful international banker, said, ‘There certainly is, I never buy at the bottom, and I always sell too soon.’”
From “How to Make Money in Stocks,” Chapter 10.
Dennis Gartman was on CNBC this morning and he said this is the largest cash position he has held in some time. He is one of the few people that know what he is talking about. Everyone that is heavy in cash is in good company.
Josh, brilliant commentary as usual.
Hey Josh,
I’m just wondering what heppened to your services. Did you get rid of the Bronze package and the email service?
Enjoy your posts for their analysis, although it’s some times annoying reading you posts as they go on and on about newbies and their stupid questions and how your past winners, bottom callers, etc. I think we get the point (at least I do).
Fuck em. Just ignore their comments and do your thing, that’s what it’s about anyway, right?
That being said thanks for helping educate me on market indices, the use of the CAN SLIM methodology and a “Big Picture” of your own.
Cheers.
I agree. Josh’s time is too valuable to spend on the ‘dime a dozen putzes’. I joined, as I said I would your premium service. Although I went short a couple days ago from your Silver Shorts recommendations, down today naturally, I still believe that in the overall scope of things this is definitely one great service. Unlike most other Newsletter services… who advertise only their 1 ‘marketing winner’ out of 10 stocks.