Bears Can Not Follow-Through On Yesterday’s Weak Close; SOX Index Leads The Market Higher As Technology Stocks Come Back To Life
May 16, 2008 | 5 Comments
I had another rough day today but this time it was on the financial end. I have been receiving a ton of 0% to 3% interest rate offers recently from my various Credit Card companies. Everything has always worked out well as I max out the balance, move it to my stock market accounts, get an excellent return on my money, and then return the cash back before the APR moves back up. This has ALWAYS worked well.
However, today I learned the horrible ignorance of some offers. Luckily, this one is the only one like this, but my 2.99% special offer and regular 9.99% rate, due to the mail NEVER SHOWING UP IN MY MAILBOX, has been JACKED UP TO 29.99%!!! I have been a customer since 1999 and this is Bank Of Amerca’s way of saying thank you for NEVER having a late payment. It seems even if it is the mail carriers fault, if you miss a payment, your rates on EVERYTHING goes to the highest possible and it take six-months to reverse. So now instead of a nice steady payoff, I have to take the full amount out of my stock accounts and pay the whole damn balance off as I refuse to pay 30% interest rate!! This completely ruined my day only because I get great margin rates AND NOW is the time you want to be putting that money to work. So today has gone completely wrong and therefore I am going to bullet point my talking points as I have no interest in writing a full commentary tonight. I wrote too much in the longs analysis anyways. Paying subscribers can get there fill there.
-the NYSE short interest ratio has hit another all-time high of 13.63. It now almost takes 14 days to cover all the shorts. WOW!
Bullish Week Ends With Mixed Trading On The Major Market Indexes; Individual Stocks Are Starting To Look Real Good
May 3, 2008 | Leave a Comment
It was another overall boring session to end the week but despite the overall boring tone to Friday’s session it was still a bullish session underneath as many stocks had solid sessions and many stocks that I was long had a very positive session. Overall, profit taking was quite mild in the AM and the strong mid-day rally into the close shows the bears are still not in control.
This kind of action on a do nothing day is just what I like to see in a market that refuses to do much. If there would have been a lot of blowups and negative action today, then I would have been a lot less enthusiastic about the non-event that Friday was.
By the close, the NYSE was up .6%, the SP 500 was up .3%, and the DJIA was flat. The Nasdaq finished lower but the intraday support and positive action by the close is something that has to be considered positive overall. I mean obviously if this market was real weak they would have sold them into the close.
Stocks Poised for a Positive Close
March 31, 2008 | Leave a Comment
Stocks are acting like they have support going into the quarters end. The real issue here is with volume. As of 11:35 volume appears to be lower than the run rate on Friday. Not much support for the bulls here, institutional buyers are simply not stepping up to the plate to support this market.
If we continue to move higher and on continued lower volume it will spell trouble for the market. The lack of accumulation is not astounding nor is it surprising to me. This was and still is a classic bull market bounce. No volume and clearly driven by oversold, short covering conditions.
Tomorrow’s session should be more indicative of the action going forward. Lack of volume the past week of action is indicating to me that more selling is just over the horizon.
Problematic Follow-Through Day Is Not All It Appears To Be; We Have Gone NOWHERE In Two Months, Proving Cash Is King!
March 21, 2008 | 13 Comments
A lot of people have recently just gotten used to being in cash as the bear market has finally convinced some that the best side is the sidelines. But as soon as a lot of these people realize it is best to park their cash, all of a sudden we have the market following-through on its rally that started eight days ago on 3/11. That is when the DJIA made its lows, reversing off of them and closing higher at the HOD by the EOD. While every index undercut those lows on 3/17, the DJIA did not and instead held. This has now led to today’s 2.16% rally on very strong volume. A weekly chart of the DJIA since 3/11 is very bullish. However, when we take a step back and look at where the index is coming from, it isn’t that impressive yet.
But it is important to pay attention to the market right now as things are lining up for at least a powerful short-term rally. When we look at the put/call ratio we can see that on a huge up day that it jumped to 1.12 which is a very high level of fear on such a bullish day. That tells me that market players expect this market to move lower on the short-term. Too bad these guys are almost always wrong. Therefore, the extremely bearish bets on such a strong day is a bullish item short-term.
Volume Not Following the Rally
March 12, 2008 | Leave a Comment
Volume is running lower than yesterday’s, @ 1:07pm EST pace. Ideally, accumulation will immediately begin after the first day of an attempted rally. At the moment this market is a complete bore! It would have been nice to see volume racing higher today to begin the bottoming process.
We aren’t seeing our bottom. Why? Look at some of these numbers:
New Highs (today): 46
New Lows (today): 202
VIX: 26.02
VXN: 28.80
New Highs continue to be dominated by New Lows and VIX and VXN continue to show the lack of fear at the recent lows. During market bottoms we’d see VIX and VXN race higher with New Highs crushing New Lows. We aren’t at the point yet.
Cash is King
When A Market Acts Like This After Giving You A Few Nice Longs It Is Very Bearish; Stocks Selloff On Lighter Volume, Sending Some Indexes To New Closing 52-Week Lows
March 6, 2008 | 3 Comments
There is almost no other way to spin this day other than extremely bearish. From the morning to the close, the market sold off all day, with the only bit of consolation coming in the form of lower volume. However, the ferocity of the selling with absolutely no bounce, coming after quite a few recent nice charts have setup, is very bearish. If this market can selloff like that on lower volume, imagine what it is going to do once institutional investors get back to selling.
When I woke up this morning and saw the damage, my first reaction, was sort of a bit of bewilderment as we jut had two handfuls of charts setup in very nice patterns in leading sectors. So when I saw the selloff I was immediately disappointed that the few longs that setup can’t even get the market going a little bit. This disappointment, is obviously not from the market being down (you should ALL know that I am VERY bearish on this market, by now) but the fact that even when it appears that it can bounce, it can not. With that kind of action, it seems impossible to think that any “HOT” charts can setup. So throw NEU and CMP to the dogs. They can’t be perfect anymore. Nothing can be, right now. The charts, minus the metals, are in trouble.
Not only are stocks in trouble, but every piece of economic data that comes rolling in is literally rolling off the charts. Today it continued with word that the total amount of all mortgages that were in foreclosure was .83% which was a record high. Not only that, but the delinquency rate hit 5.8% which is the worst since 1985. Data like that, combined with the Fed telling us that American’s debt on their homes is higher than equity in the home for the first time since 1945. That happens to be when they started keeping records. It is quite possible that this is the lowest ever.
Another Wild Intraday Session Ends With Stocks Higher On Lower Volume; Some Very Nice Charts Are Starting To Be Created
March 5, 2008 | 6 Comments
It was another insane day for market participants as the market started off on an impressive note. But, just like the past umpteen amount of days, stocks then sold right off erasing all of the gains, and then spent the final two hours really doing nothing. But that is our market recently and the one thing that we can at least say about that is that the directionless market hasn’t changed thus not throwing us for any nasty surprises.
There was one surprise for traders today and that was the news that ABK would not be bailed out. This caused ABK to fall 18% today and despite the stock looking like it bottomed back in January, in fact, just might have been a temporary stop on the way to 0. There are many other stocks in this group that are in this position as PMI, MBI, and MTG are all, in my opinion, more-than-likely going to zero. I only wish I wasn’t focusing on longs so much when they broke down in October. I do regret not getting short these horrible stocks.
Another stock I regret not getting short is TMA back in August. This stock here shows the importance of patience. As all of you know, I do not cut my FINAL losses until a long is either below the 200 DMA or the short is above the 200 DMA. There are, of course, exceptions. But I would say 80-90% of all stocks fall under this requirement, once they have substantial gains. TMA is just one of those examples. Had you lost your patience with this short come the rally in February–which never closed above the 200 DMA–and covered it all, you are probably feeling a little silly. You should; your lack of patience just cost you a 92% gain on a short in seven months!!!!!!!!! If that is not hot, in a bear market, I do not know what else is.
Stocks Rally For Second Straight Day, On Lower To Flat Volume; Funds Still Have No Interest In This Market
March 20, 2007 | Leave a Comment
It was another day of light gains, for the stock market. However, today, had a bit more of a steady bullish bias to it, unlike yesterday, as big-cap indexes closed near their HOD. The good news for stocks came on the back of a better-than-expected housing starts number for February. That number was up 9% for the month, which is much better than the 14% drop in January. The bad news, in that mix, came from building permits as they fell again by 2.5%. The other positives effecting stocks was M & A activity. The news that CYTC is making a full bid for ADZA and that PALM might receive a bid for its business might have had a positive impact on stocks. Read more
Stocks Find Intraday Support, Again, With All Indexes Closing Higher On The Day; Leading Stocks Continue Outperformance
February 7, 2007 | Leave a Comment
It was yet another driftless day for stocks, overall, as comments from Fed heads Bernanke, Yellen, Moskow, and the Treasury Secretary had no major effect on the stock market. There was no catalyst for stocks to move in one way or the other. It was basically about earnings action in individual stocks and nothing else, today.
At the close, the SP 400 and 600 led the way, hitting all-time highs, with .5% gains, the NYSE followed, hitting all-time highs, with a .34% gain, the SP 500 was next with a .07% gain, and the DJIA and the Nasdaq finished with a .04% gain. Leading stocks kept up with the SP 400 and 600, with the IBD 100 gaining .4% on the day. It is very positive to see the leaders continue to keep pace with the leading indexes of the day.
Volume was slightly higher on the NYSE and well higher on the Nasdaq. The higher volume, combined with the very nice intraday price reversal, gives today’s action a sense of accumulation off this dip to the 50 dma. It can only be bullish to see buyers stepping in here to support stocks at this key moving average.
Afternoon Rally Gives Stocks Support, Off Of Yesterday’s Selloff; Nasdaq Holds Its 50 DMA, SP 600 Regains Key Line.
January 20, 2007 | Leave a Comment
Stocks were able to find some support, yesterday, after a nasty selloff on Thursday did some damage to stocks. IBM started the day off wrong when its stock gapped down over 3.5% and put pressure on the indexes. However, a late afternoon rally, for no apparent reason, helped lift the SP 500 and Nasdaq to a positive close. Read more
