Was It Really That Bad? Nassy Falls On Lower Volume And NYSE Volume Rises But Remains Below Average; How About MXC, CKX, FPP, PDO, ROYL, and CLR!!
May 20, 2008 | 2 Comments
It sure was not a bullish day but at the same token it does seem people are treating today as the beginning of the end and in my investment life I have learned that when everyone thinks that something is going to happen the opposite usually happens.
on that note, today’s selling sure did bring out a lot of people that are worried about further selling. To that, all I have to say is if you have some profits and do feel afraid you will lose some. Why don’t you sell 20%, lock in some gains, sit back and relax, and then let the stock TELL YOU what to do next. For now, I don’t see a reason for all the worrying that I saw today. How I judge how bad selling is is to see what it does to my current holdings and to see what the short scans bring up.
When it comes to the 70 plus stocks I am long (14 are of good size the rest are nothing that will change the fate of my world) there were ABSOLUTELY ZERO that gave me a FULL sell signal. Everything that pulled back did so either on low volume, barely pulled back on higher volume and had a bullish reversal before the close, and/or if it did pullback heavy it did not close below either significant support or the 50 DMA. Now I hate to be a party pooper for the HUGE short interest that is out there but facts remain that when a market is ready to top I will not only have a few partial sells I WILL HAVE A FEW FULL SELLS. Tonight, I had NO full sells.
A Very Bullish Start Ends With Most Indexes Closing At Or Near Their LOD; My Best Stocks Held Up Well During The Selling
May 15, 2008 | 2 Comments
Well, that sure is not how you like to close them. Especially with volume picking up there while we sold off right after hitting the 200 day moving average on the Nasdaq. The good news is that the market still gapped high enough in the morning that all major market indexes were able to close with gains. But there was a negative blip in regards to leading stocks as the IBD 100 fell 1.2%.
Thankfully, even though volume ticked slightly higher on the Nasdaq, the NYSE had volume come in 1% lower on the reversal. To go along with that the volume was below average on the NYSE for the 38th straight session, volume was barely above the 50 DMA on the Nasdaq. With the volume being higher and prices being higher that would still be bullish despite the reversal. The volume simply was not full of conviction in the form of huge clear distribution. I guess you could count 4/1 as average daily volume on the NYSE, by the way, but still it wasn’t above average so I guess the point still stands.
Overall, the market is in the same situation as it was last week. We are rallying on lower volume with this clearly being a stock picker’s market. The good news, for me is that is what I specialize at.
Huge Gains On Heavier Volume Looks Good To Amateurs; The Professionals Know That Volume Matters And We Had NO!!! Volume On Today’s Rally
April 1, 2008 | 1 Comment
This is just another bear market rally, for now, and I will be more than happy to play it as I was only 9% short coming into today and 70% cash. I guess that means I was more than short. But according to some MORONS like Sandy Wright (Wendy), you are just too stupid to not get that today is a bottom. We will see about that. I have six new longs and three longs I want to add to my positions tonight but NONE of them make me excited. NONE of them look like ANY of my ‘past big winners.’
I’ll let the schmucks like Sandy/Wendy (or whoever this crazy is) believe that this is “THE BOTTOM.” I will continue to wait for proof and then get long the next bull market leaders, while the IDIOTS buy their BSC, LEH, URS, and BYI speculative-junk!!!
Cramer constantly produces 50% losses and I have NEVER!!!! in 12 years EVER owned a stock down 50%. Anyone hear of SGP? The stock I was short for a 43% gain that he was long for a 55% loss?????????????? Did you hear about that smart Cramer going long that? Or how about AUY, NYX, IMA, C, or any other blowup he has recommended?
Another Wild Intraday Session Ends With Not Much Happening By The EOD; Cash Is Still King In This Low Volume Market
March 31, 2008 | 23 Comments
It is hard to continuously say the same thing over and over but it is true. There is nothing to do in this market other than to keep your trades small and your cash high. Especially, if you are a perma-bull as we are now finishing the month down for the fifth time in-a-row. This is much different from anything we saw from 2003 to November 2007.
I know a few traders that for some ungodly reason were bullish after today’s close. This was because they said the Fed has a new way of making sure the market has bottomed. Once again, the same market call but this time from different players with a different excuse. No matter how many people try this argument with me and no matter for what reason it is, I simply will not believe it until it is true. When I see the market making strong gains on strong volume with top stocks breaking out and moving higher (heck there doesn’t even have to be heavy volume on the indexes; I just need some HOT freaking charts, for God’s sake), then I will wrap my arms around this market just like the perma-bulls have been the entire way down.
The right thing to keep on doing is raising cash with stocks that we are cutting our losses on or taking profits on and to keep the new buys or shorts small until a trend is clear. Right now, the market has no clear trend as a low volume trading environment has now entered the stock market which could help build some nice bases. However, nothing is hinting at that what-so-ever as few NEW and FRESH stocks are forming bases after a previous uptrend in innovative companies with great fundamentals.
Stocks Reverse Hard Selling Off All Session Into The Close, Closing Near The LOD; Lower Volume Eases Selling Pressure But Some Leaders Selloff On Higher Volume
March 29, 2008 | 2 Comments
The morning got off to a good start as the indexes gapped higher and started off strong right out of the gate, with the Nasdaq leading the way higher with a 1% gain. After that, sadly for the bulls, it was nothing but a slightly choppy ride lower with the market selling off the entire way lower with the 1% gain in the Nassy turning into a .9% loss by the EOD. The DJIA closed near the session lows for the second straight session. This was not a bullish session, to say the least.
Despite the losses, there was one bit of good news that can be taken away from this session and that is that volume was lower across the board. In fact, Friday’s volume was the lowest turnover of 2008 and shows that institutional investors who make up over 75% of the volume in the stock market were not active at all. Still, you can’t get too excited about low volume pullbacks when they come after low volume rallies.
We did have one heavy volume rally on 3/20 when the DJIA had its follow-through day. However, since then we have been left with nothing but low volume volatile-intraday sessions that have left us at the same point we were at right before the two bullish days on 1/22 and 1/23. This is not good as it is not normal to see a market have a FTD and then not put out any big winners that are working right away or have any follow-through days to the follow-through day.
Problematic Follow-Through Day Is Not All It Appears To Be; We Have Gone NOWHERE In Two Months, Proving Cash Is King!
March 21, 2008 | 13 Comments
A lot of people have recently just gotten used to being in cash as the bear market has finally convinced some that the best side is the sidelines. But as soon as a lot of these people realize it is best to park their cash, all of a sudden we have the market following-through on its rally that started eight days ago on 3/11. That is when the DJIA made its lows, reversing off of them and closing higher at the HOD by the EOD. While every index undercut those lows on 3/17, the DJIA did not and instead held. This has now led to today’s 2.16% rally on very strong volume. A weekly chart of the DJIA since 3/11 is very bullish. However, when we take a step back and look at where the index is coming from, it isn’t that impressive yet.
But it is important to pay attention to the market right now as things are lining up for at least a powerful short-term rally. When we look at the put/call ratio we can see that on a huge up day that it jumped to 1.12 which is a very high level of fear on such a bullish day. That tells me that market players expect this market to move lower on the short-term. Too bad these guys are almost always wrong. Therefore, the extremely bearish bets on such a strong day is a bullish item short-term.
Immediate Distribution Day On The NYSE And SP-500 Proves Bottom Callers Are Going To Be Wrong AGAIN; Now That They Have Hit The Current/New Leaders (Gold, Oil, and Chemicals) This Could Get Real Ugly
March 19, 2008 | 7 Comments
Wow is about all I have to say today after watching the market’s action. And the wow does not refer to the price reversal on the major market indexes. The wow has to deal with the action today in the top four leading industry groups in the IBD industry groups. They were simply rocked! Not only did they selloff hard, they did it on low volume. When the leaders are treated like this you can guarantee that there are some major problems stirring underneath.
Today quite a unique event happened today in the market that I have not seen the entire downtrend. And, imo, this is not good. The last time I saw this was in late 2000. That is when the bear market gained steamed and sent stocks much lower. Well, today, the chemical-fertilizer, metal ore-gold/silver, steel-producers, and oil&gas - US expl prod all fell between 5.9% and 6.9% which is just shocking. To see leading stocks in this really rough market get treated like this is the last thing from bullish as it can be. Only a politician could spin this as bullish.
5 out of the top 9 worst performers were in the top 10 industry groups. This is not how a market should act. Not only should the leaders be from more innovative areas of the economy, they shouldn’t be selling off when they are up there. If the weak stocks are getting CRUSHED (BSC TMA C etc..) and the strong stocks are getting crushed (GTU AUY BVN XEC EOG etc…) where is there to hide? The answer is no where. Only is cash or bonds the safe place to be. It is simply not a market any of the greatest traders today or of all-time would mess with.
Incredible Fed-Induced Rally Ends With Stock Indexes Closing At The HOD On Higher Volume; Remember, The Most Powerful Rallies Always Come In Bear Markets
March 12, 2008 | Leave a Comment
There is no other way to describe today as rally other than “incredible.” But even though we can say today’s rally was incredible, is anyone surprised, after telling you that the market was extremely oversold and we could get a bounce as the put/call is at 1.41 which is extremely high? You really can’t say you are, since I have hinted that this was coming.
However, to the magnitude that the rally hit us, I had NO clue that was going to happen! Obviously, if I would have thought that was coming I would have partially covered a lot of my shorts that had huge gains. Instead, I had to do that today. And the beauty of that was that very few gave back more than 3% on the day. Considering where the majority have been shorted, that is darn good.
Too bad, the big-cap tech stocks are the ones that are not cooperating (FSLR, RIMM, BIDU) and it seems to me that many newbies are taking pot shots at these shorts. First off, I have warned you over and over and over to NOT short stocks UNTIL you MASTER the long side. Anyone who is shorting stocks that has no history of having consistent winners in their portfolio is being dangerously foolish. I thought I have made this clear but obviously I have NOT! Second, I don’t know how freaking clear I have to make it that my shorts ARE SMALLER HERE THAN THEY EVER HAVE BEEN. I was shorting in bigger size early on but when all of my big-caps either failed or got away from me, I have scaled back. And as the crowd grew more hostile and I saw the market get more volatile (relative to the recent market), I began raising cash.
The Largest Rallies Come In Bear Markets; Stocks Stage Huge Rally On Slightly Higher Volume Marking Day Two Of Rally Attempt
November 28, 2007 | 9 Comments
Today’s gains were extremely impressive, as stock indexes rallied between 2.6% and 3.3%, with the SP 600 leading the way. However, if we just get over the headlines of the market rallying over 3%, and we get down to some internals, we can see that today’s rally just might not be the start of a new bull market. Now, I know that might sound silly, especially since all you heard all day long that the market bottomed. But something tells me that this market might not be done on the downside. That something is history.
The first thing I look for, any time the market puts in a huge rally, in a bearish market environment or in a pullback from bull market highs, is if the volume was heavy. Higher volume than the day before is always important as it is the first sign of accumulation from large institutions. However, just having higher volume than the previous day’s volume is not the end all of all.
The second thing to look for to see how strong the volume is is the relationship of the volume to the 50 day volume average. When the market is up a lot, like it was today, for me to get bullish and not believe it is just a massive short-squeeze I have to see a major jump in volume. If you look at the NYSE and the Nasdaq, you will see that the volume was over the 50 dva but it was barely higher. Compare the volume today to the volume in late July to mid August. The volume that we saw on the downside was much heavier than what we are seeing right now. If that was not the case, the Acc/Dis ratings in the Nasdaq would not still be a C. Now on the SP 500 and the NYSE the Acc/Dis rating has turned into a B but the leading stocks IBD 100 is still very weak with a D.
