Bullish Week Ends With Leading Stocks And The SOX Taking The Lead; The IBD 100 Finishes Up 4.2% And The SOX Finishes Up 5.8% This Week, Clearly Showing Us Where The New Leadership Is
May 17, 2008 | 1 Comment
There is really only one word to describe Friday’s intraday action: bullish. Right off the bat, thanks to a report showing the University of Michigan consumer confidence number fell below 60 to a 28-year low, the Nasdaq fell 1.2% within the first two hours. This selling was pretty nasty but still the report should not have shocked the informed investors who saw the IBD/TIPP poll hit an all-time low last month. I am sure we can expect more of the same come Tuesday when the new data is released. Thankfully, for the bulls, cooler heads prevailed and quickly the consumer confidence news was taken as old news and shaken off.
By the end of the day, it was an impressive turnaround on all the indexes, as everything closed near their HOD. The leading index was the NYSE which scored a .5% gain. The SP 500 also was up today, gaining .1%. On the other end, the Nassy lost .2% and the DJIA lost .1% but both still closed near their HOD. Considering the losses that all the indexes had going after the first two hours there is no other way to call today anything but a victory for the bulls.
How Much Longer Will The Good Time (The Rally Has Not Been Long Enough, To Be “Times”) Last?
May 9, 2008 | 1 Comment
I am not for sure about that answer but I have to admit the charts overall still look like they are trying to make a bottom. But like I have continuously warned about: if volume does not come back into this market on the upside, we are in danger of reversing some decent base building and that will probably discourage a lot of market participants which could open the door to more selling.
However, there is nothing wrong with being prepared, but until the market actually cracks, I will have to go with the short-term to intermediate term uptrend and ride the wave for however long it wants to last. The sad thing is that the way some of my stocks that looked great just a couple of weeks ago now look only average to somewhat above average. This is OK but in a brand new bull market, we would normally have 5-6 near-perfect to perfect charts right now. Instead I have one. One chart STILL looks “hot” out of about 4 or 5 that were starting to. Basically this has been the theme ever since April 2006 but thank God some gems here and there have still been able to shine through the rough.
It has been a long time since a WHOLE BUNCH of stocks setup in proper to perfect bases and then broke out and ran away. The truth is, I am only finding a few gems here and there and usually when I find a gem it fails. However, for every 3 or 4 that fail and that we can cut quickly thus saving ourselves a LOT of pain, we will always have one that can run. They might not be of high quality like AFSI but as long as 1 or 2 are around I guess that is good enough. But the further we go along without these near-perfect to perfect charts setting up or even holding on the more problems we will run into in the future.
Stocks Close Higher On A Pickup In Volume; Volume Still WELL Below Average And Charts Are Still Very Sloppy
April 15, 2008 | Leave a Comment
It was another wild day on Maui as more drama occurred in my personal life today. However, it is minor and it has been taken care of so hopefully I can get back to doing what I am supposed to be doing instead of wasting my time on other things.
Anyways, luckily for me it was just more of the same junk that we have seen the past 17 sessions as volume is still well below average and the charts still look junky. What makes it worse, is that the few good charts we had building have gone away. Not all but still it is not good.
That is unless you are focused in one area and one area only. Oil. Oil hit $114 yesterday and closed at $113.79 which is a new all-time high. I have a feeling we are going to be saying that a lot. Especially when I look at oil stocks and see that they account for almost ALL of the stock market’s strength.
There were only 90 new 52-week highs yesterday to a very large 222 new lows but what stuck out to me is that out of the 90 new highs 58!! of them were in the energy sector. That is a whopping total, especially considering that the next most came from agriculture stocks as they had 6 new highs in the group. Obviously, the oil&gas and energy sectors are the only two places to be in this market, unless you are in soft commodities/ag. There simply is no where else to go.
Low Volume Consolidation After The Big April Fools Rally Is So-Far So-Good; CANSLIM Stocks Setup And Breakout But Volume Is Still Suspect
April 5, 2008 | 1 Comment
A weak open after a very poor employment report that showed the US lost 80,000 jobs in March with the unemployment rate moving up to 5.1%. It was a pretty lousy number but considering the fact that we had 25% unemployment after the crash of 1929 it isn’t “that” horrible. But the media, with a Republican still in White House, of course, made it sound like all hell was breaking was loose.
Maybe that is why the market could not build on the weakness and instead rallied higher the rest of the day off the lows until 2pm when traders unwound some of their longs into the weekend. Overall though, it was very positive action, following a strong rally on April Fool’s Day. That now makes it three constructive sessions in-a-row where stocks have held on to the gains.
Volume, however, was, once again, nowhere to be found as it came in lower for the third straight day on both exchanges. I would be A LOT more happy about the low volume consolidation if the indexes were pulling back. But they are slightly rallying on this low volume and while not bearish, by far, I still would much rather see higher volume gains and lower volume pullbacks. It is good to see that two of the three days on the DJIA have been lower. But overall they are slightly rising on lower and lower volume. Overall not a good LONG-TERM development. BUT! it is a very good short-term development as this is the first rally attempt that has not been thrown back immediately.
So Much For The “I Must Get Long NOW” Trade
April 2, 2008 | 3 Comments
Once again, the bottom callers said there was no more downside and here we are selling off erasing all of the gains from today. Why are people trading this market? It is too dangerous. Even RevShark says the exact same thing as I do:
A Good Start, but We Still Need Some Setups
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
4/2/2008 12:21 PM EDT
As I mentioned this morning, the current market action is the most promising that we have seen so far this year. If we can do a better job this time of holding on to yesterday’s large gains, that will finally give us what we need for some better charts.
What has made it so difficult to build longer-term positions so far this year is that we simply haven’t had stocks hold lows and build bases. We have had a lot of oversold bounces and volatility, which make for good short-term trades. But we have had few situations where we can feel that stocks have finally started to attract fundamental and technical buyers who are looking for position trades that will develop over the course of weeks or months.
Huge Gains On Heavier Volume Looks Good To Amateurs; The Professionals Know That Volume Matters And We Had NO!!! Volume On Today’s Rally
April 1, 2008 | 1 Comment
This is just another bear market rally, for now, and I will be more than happy to play it as I was only 9% short coming into today and 70% cash. I guess that means I was more than short. But according to some MORONS like Sandy Wright (Wendy), you are just too stupid to not get that today is a bottom. We will see about that. I have six new longs and three longs I want to add to my positions tonight but NONE of them make me excited. NONE of them look like ANY of my ‘past big winners.’
I’ll let the schmucks like Sandy/Wendy (or whoever this crazy is) believe that this is “THE BOTTOM.” I will continue to wait for proof and then get long the next bull market leaders, while the IDIOTS buy their BSC, LEH, URS, and BYI speculative-junk!!!
Cramer constantly produces 50% losses and I have NEVER!!!! in 12 years EVER owned a stock down 50%. Anyone hear of SGP? The stock I was short for a 43% gain that he was long for a 55% loss?????????????? Did you hear about that smart Cramer going long that? Or how about AUY, NYX, IMA, C, or any other blowup he has recommended?
Bottom Callers Come Out Again And This Time They May Finally Be Right After Being Wrong The Other NINE!!! Times; CANSLIM Stocks Are Showing Up Now
April 1, 2008 | Leave a Comment
I have some great new longs tonight. And some of my current longs made some impressive gains today along with a couple of my favorites setting up new buy points.
Nobody in their right FREAKING mind knows if this is the bottom or not and to be honest volume is NOT being confirmed on the indexes but I do have some nice charts and if they build on this those charts will become great charts and I can then go back to KILLING the performance of the bottom callers. For now, they may be have gotten this bottom right. Too bad they will be going long the wrong stocks, while I will be going long our new leaders: G**, S***, M***, A***, S***, B**, S**, B**, and M**.
The charts in those stocks are not perfect but if this rally can start here and move higher to sideways for another month to three months, these charts will be beyond hot and while the idiot bottom callers are focused on their C, GS, BSC stocks, I will be getting my 300% returns again. Why not 500%?…………LOOK AT THE VIX!!! 22.638. 
Stocks Reverse Hard Selling Off All Session Into The Close, Closing Near The LOD; Lower Volume Eases Selling Pressure But Some Leaders Selloff On Higher Volume
March 29, 2008 | 2 Comments
The morning got off to a good start as the indexes gapped higher and started off strong right out of the gate, with the Nasdaq leading the way higher with a 1% gain. After that, sadly for the bulls, it was nothing but a slightly choppy ride lower with the market selling off the entire way lower with the 1% gain in the Nassy turning into a .9% loss by the EOD. The DJIA closed near the session lows for the second straight session. This was not a bullish session, to say the least.
Despite the losses, there was one bit of good news that can be taken away from this session and that is that volume was lower across the board. In fact, Friday’s volume was the lowest turnover of 2008 and shows that institutional investors who make up over 75% of the volume in the stock market were not active at all. Still, you can’t get too excited about low volume pullbacks when they come after low volume rallies.
We did have one heavy volume rally on 3/20 when the DJIA had its follow-through day. However, since then we have been left with nothing but low volume volatile-intraday sessions that have left us at the same point we were at right before the two bullish days on 1/22 and 1/23. This is not good as it is not normal to see a market have a FTD and then not put out any big winners that are working right away or have any follow-through days to the follow-through day.
A Weak Open Lingers All Boring Day Long As Stocks Close Lower On Lower Volume; ORCL Disappoints AH
March 26, 2008 | 7 Comments
It was an extremely boring day on wall street today as a pair of really negative economic reports failed to get the bears to take advantage of the macro backdrop. Considering durable goods announced by the Consumer Department fell 1.7% in February, crude oil bounced $4.68 to $105.90, and new home sales were the lowest since 1995 there was plenty of reasons for the market to take the gains and hammer them into oblivion.
But that didn’t happen. The market did fall on the day but the early morning losses found some buyers and after one more turn near the final hour stocks closed with minor losses, with the DJIA and SP 500 leading the way lower with a .9% loss. The good news, though, is that leading stocks, via the IBD 100, rallied .2% on the day and the SP 600 only lost .4%. So there was some relative strength in the leaders and the small-caps which is always what you want to see in a rally.
Too bad another thing you like to see is volume. Since normally heavy volume is good for rallies, it can’t be that great that we constantly rally on lower volume. However, when those low volume rallies are followed by lower volume pullbacks it is possible that in the future we could have a market rotate into a market where heavier volume comes from the combined low volume pullbacks and rallies. This is what happened post July 2002 to the October 2002 bottom.
Problematic Follow-Through Day Is Not All It Appears To Be; We Have Gone NOWHERE In Two Months, Proving Cash Is King!
March 21, 2008 | 13 Comments
A lot of people have recently just gotten used to being in cash as the bear market has finally convinced some that the best side is the sidelines. But as soon as a lot of these people realize it is best to park their cash, all of a sudden we have the market following-through on its rally that started eight days ago on 3/11. That is when the DJIA made its lows, reversing off of them and closing higher at the HOD by the EOD. While every index undercut those lows on 3/17, the DJIA did not and instead held. This has now led to today’s 2.16% rally on very strong volume. A weekly chart of the DJIA since 3/11 is very bullish. However, when we take a step back and look at where the index is coming from, it isn’t that impressive yet.
But it is important to pay attention to the market right now as things are lining up for at least a powerful short-term rally. When we look at the put/call ratio we can see that on a huge up day that it jumped to 1.12 which is a very high level of fear on such a bullish day. That tells me that market players expect this market to move lower on the short-term. Too bad these guys are almost always wrong. Therefore, the extremely bearish bets on such a strong day is a bullish item short-term.
