What A Difference One Week Makes; Leading Stocks Signal That There May Be More Work To Do Before A Real Strong Rally Can Ever Take Hold
May 24, 2008 | 4 Comments
There is no doubt that I am suffering my WORST Multiple Sclerosis attack to date. Since Saturday I have basically been bed ridden and RIGHT OFF THE BAT I want to apologies if any of this is a little hard to follow because I feel like trash. I am not sure if this will effect what I am about to write but do me a favor and do NOT bust my balls if I misplace a word or misspell a word. My life is too short to deal with this.
I had a completely different approach in mind when I first wanted to write this but I figure I will stick with the facts. The facts are as quickly as this market looked like good times could be returning it in fact was possibly throwing us false “all clear” signal. Now while I never fully bought into this rally due to the volume, I still held hope that the rotation that I started to see into technology stocks would continue. Now I am beginning to wonder if that is what is happening or if they are making it appear that this was the case just to shut the door in our face.
At the end of last week things were looking very strong for the stock market, despite the low volume, as a lot of stocks that were in our portfolios were producing some large gains. But without ANY warning or clear reversal signal, the stocks started pulling back slowly getting rid of all the gains. The lucky part is that we did sell SOME as they pulled back since volume was higher. But the stocks pulling back on low volume and green BOP gave us no reason to sell. Since stocks that move up 20% in two weeks should always be held for at least eight-weeks it seemed stupid to sell anything pulling back. However, now it appears we should have taken more gains. This is the one time not taking profits quickly hurt us. The low volume was the tell and I should understand that next time as this is nto the first time I have witnessed this action.
Nasty Day Ends With All Indexes Suffering A Distribution Day; Day Six For DJIA And SP 500 Officially Puts The Rally Under Pressure
May 22, 2008 | Leave a Comment
For those that do not know what that means, it means that it is time to raise cash by selling down some of our longs. We recently have gone long quite a few stocks that have performed very well. Some of you made the right decision and took a lot of profits when some were up 20% to 50%. That was very smart. I did take some profits but with my larger holdings I was trying to hold for some powerful gains, thinking that volume still might enter the market to the upside as funds went back to work so they would not show underperformance.
Instead it looks like they are starting to return as sellers and with all the indexes reversing or failing right at the 200 day moving average it appears that the 50 and 200 DMA’s will be resistance for the market that the funds will use to sell into. I pray that I am wrong and that tomorrow we are up a lot so that we can resume the uptrend with our longs. However, I am not wishy-washy and know when it is time to pair back my positions. After today, it is time.
Some might be upset that you are not selling at the top and getting the gains you thought you were going to get. But trust me, one day, WHEN VOLUME IS HUGE ON THE indexes, these same stocks WITH EVEN BETTER AND MORE GREEN TO MAX BOP GREEN CHARTS will show up and run and produce 300% to 2000% gains. Sadly, too many of you will be used to selling too much off when the stock is up 10%, 25%, and 50% that you will miss out on most of the gains. For some of you, that are EXTREMELY new, that is OK. But for those of you who have seen this game before, you know that selling too soon is not the smart thing to do.
A Very Bullish Start Ends With Most Indexes Closing At Or Near Their LOD; My Best Stocks Held Up Well During The Selling
May 15, 2008 | 2 Comments
Well, that sure is not how you like to close them. Especially with volume picking up there while we sold off right after hitting the 200 day moving average on the Nasdaq. The good news is that the market still gapped high enough in the morning that all major market indexes were able to close with gains. But there was a negative blip in regards to leading stocks as the IBD 100 fell 1.2%.
Thankfully, even though volume ticked slightly higher on the Nasdaq, the NYSE had volume come in 1% lower on the reversal. To go along with that the volume was below average on the NYSE for the 38th straight session, volume was barely above the 50 DMA on the Nasdaq. With the volume being higher and prices being higher that would still be bullish despite the reversal. The volume simply was not full of conviction in the form of huge clear distribution. I guess you could count 4/1 as average daily volume on the NYSE, by the way, but still it wasn’t above average so I guess the point still stands.
Overall, the market is in the same situation as it was last week. We are rallying on lower volume with this clearly being a stock picker’s market. The good news, for me is that is what I specialize at.
Another Bullish Day Equals Another Great Day For Our Longs
May 14, 2008 | 1 Comment
Today was yet another day where the market did not do much but our longs crushed it. This time it was our recent solar stock purchases. This continues a very bullish pattern of where everything I buy continues to move higher. Once again, tonight there are four new longs and zero full sells. This has been a recurring theme and is a theme of any bullish market. Higher volume or not.
Even though we still have zero institutional support on the indexes, it is clear that in this stock picking market there are a lot of stocks they are accumulating. The majority are in the energy industries, obviously. It might not be easy to buy stocks correct but it sure has not been difficult knowing where to put a lot of money. The gains in two solar stocks today that I am heavily long is more proof that as long as you know how to pick the best stocks, you can destroy the stock market. Remember, all those people from weakmoney.com that were telling me to go long stocks like GS, LEH, MS. I don’t know about you but I told you then that you did NOT have to buy the exact low to make a CRAPLOAD of money in the stock market. My recent longs are proving that.
For those that still think that you have to buy the exact low, this should now prove to you that those talking heads on CNBC are just that. Talking heads.
How Much Longer Will The Good Time (The Rally Has Not Been Long Enough, To Be “Times”) Last?
May 9, 2008 | 1 Comment
I am not for sure about that answer but I have to admit the charts overall still look like they are trying to make a bottom. But like I have continuously warned about: if volume does not come back into this market on the upside, we are in danger of reversing some decent base building and that will probably discourage a lot of market participants which could open the door to more selling.
However, there is nothing wrong with being prepared, but until the market actually cracks, I will have to go with the short-term to intermediate term uptrend and ride the wave for however long it wants to last. The sad thing is that the way some of my stocks that looked great just a couple of weeks ago now look only average to somewhat above average. This is OK but in a brand new bull market, we would normally have 5-6 near-perfect to perfect charts right now. Instead I have one. One chart STILL looks “hot” out of about 4 or 5 that were starting to. Basically this has been the theme ever since April 2006 but thank God some gems here and there have still been able to shine through the rough.
It has been a long time since a WHOLE BUNCH of stocks setup in proper to perfect bases and then broke out and ran away. The truth is, I am only finding a few gems here and there and usually when I find a gem it fails. However, for every 3 or 4 that fail and that we can cut quickly thus saving ourselves a LOT of pain, we will always have one that can run. They might not be of high quality like AFSI but as long as 1 or 2 are around I guess that is good enough. But the further we go along without these near-perfect to perfect charts setting up or even holding on the more problems we will run into in the future.
I Do Not Like The Selling After All These Nice Charts Have Set Up
May 7, 2008 | 5 Comments
Where are the mutual funds that are hoarding cash? If these guys do not step in and start buying stocks and we continue to have to rely on the shorts to cover higher to produce a rally, my faith in this rally is going to start to fall real fast.
I refuse to get as bearish as the crowd and I have been expecting a pullback but seriously if volume continues this below average pace, I just don’t see how in the heck this can turn into a long-lasting bull market.
So if you want to be a raging bull, go ahead. I still remain cautious but would love to get EXTREMELY long here as the charts are starting to round out. However, selling here after these nice charts started showing up would be very bad. Maybe this is why my short scans have been active, like I have been talking about on the ‘Silver Shorts’ area.
Hopefully, the elephants will return soon, or else those mice that are keeping them away will start to scare me soon.
I Started Talking About The Parabolic Runs In Chemical-Fertilizer Stocks A Week Ago And Today They Confirmed The Analysis; Is Their A Possible Rotation Into Technology Stocks?
April 24, 2008 | Leave a Comment
What a weird session! Finally, something interesting to talk about. And by interesting I mean that all the chemical-fertilizer stocks that I have been listing as “parabolic charts” in my forums the past week have finally sold off on very heavy volume. I am not sure if this is the ultimate top but we are very blessed to have an excellent futures trader amongst are midst and he has been screaming to short the commodities the pat few days. Now, while those selloff, finally, the stocks start to catch up. I hope this is the top to the commodities, but something tells me this will probably be just another short term adjustment.
Either way, it really doesn’t matter to me. I have taken my 400% and 500% gain from TNH and MOS back in 2006-2007 a long time ago and I am just waiting for these things to top so that I may try to take a piece of the pie back when they head back to earth where all stocks belong after a climax run.
Bottom Callers Come Out Again And This Time They May Finally Be Right After Being Wrong The Other NINE!!! Times; CANSLIM Stocks Are Showing Up Now
April 1, 2008 | Leave a Comment
I have some great new longs tonight. And some of my current longs made some impressive gains today along with a couple of my favorites setting up new buy points.
Nobody in their right FREAKING mind knows if this is the bottom or not and to be honest volume is NOT being confirmed on the indexes but I do have some nice charts and if they build on this those charts will become great charts and I can then go back to KILLING the performance of the bottom callers. For now, they may be have gotten this bottom right. Too bad they will be going long the wrong stocks, while I will be going long our new leaders: G**, S***, M***, A***, S***, B**, S**, B**, and M**.
The charts in those stocks are not perfect but if this rally can start here and move higher to sideways for another month to three months, these charts will be beyond hot and while the idiot bottom callers are focused on their C, GS, BSC stocks, I will be getting my 300% returns again. Why not 500%?…………LOOK AT THE VIX!!! 22.638. 
Stocks Reverse Hard Selling Off All Session Into The Close, Closing Near The LOD; Lower Volume Eases Selling Pressure But Some Leaders Selloff On Higher Volume
March 29, 2008 | 2 Comments
The morning got off to a good start as the indexes gapped higher and started off strong right out of the gate, with the Nasdaq leading the way higher with a 1% gain. After that, sadly for the bulls, it was nothing but a slightly choppy ride lower with the market selling off the entire way lower with the 1% gain in the Nassy turning into a .9% loss by the EOD. The DJIA closed near the session lows for the second straight session. This was not a bullish session, to say the least.
Despite the losses, there was one bit of good news that can be taken away from this session and that is that volume was lower across the board. In fact, Friday’s volume was the lowest turnover of 2008 and shows that institutional investors who make up over 75% of the volume in the stock market were not active at all. Still, you can’t get too excited about low volume pullbacks when they come after low volume rallies.
We did have one heavy volume rally on 3/20 when the DJIA had its follow-through day. However, since then we have been left with nothing but low volume volatile-intraday sessions that have left us at the same point we were at right before the two bullish days on 1/22 and 1/23. This is not good as it is not normal to see a market have a FTD and then not put out any big winners that are working right away or have any follow-through days to the follow-through day.
Selloff Continues As Bottom Callers Continue To Look Foolish; Adding/Establishing Short Positions In The Stock Markets Former Leaders
November 26, 2007 | Leave a Comment
The selling we saw on Wednesday continued today, after a slight one day oversold bounce. The bounce we had on Friday was on a half day and was on no volume so obviously the selling today can’t be too surprising to trend followers as it was very clear the low volume rally would probably not hold. And it definitely did not as some indexes hit new 52-week lows like the Russell 2000. The index that led us up from 2002 is now leading us down as we continue to selloff. This index is now almost 15% off its highs for the year and the major indexes are off between 10% and 11% officially putting us back in a correction mode.
While the trend is down and I went over everything I could think of about the current market during the long weekend, I still have found some very important key technical data that says that we are not done yet. First of all did anyone see the equity put/call ratio in IBD? The market fell between 1.8% and 2.6% yet fear fell as the put/call ratio went from .89 to .88 today. This clearly shows that there is no fear in this market.
