Nasdaq Leads Impressive Day Of Gains On Slightly Higher Volume That Is STILL Well Below Average; NYSE Slowest Day Since December 27, 2007
May 13, 2008 | Leave a Comment
I don’t know what I can say about this market that has not already been said. I find it very difficult to BS about the market when there is nothing to BS about. But I will give it a shot.
I do not like seeing the IBD 100 lag the Nassy on a day of such strong gains. The other thing I do not like seeing is the impressive gains on much lower volume with the NYSE having its lowest day of volume this year. This is a clear sign the big boys have no interest in buying this market. However, as you can tell via my recent longs, there are a few stocks they are still interested in buying. That is why this is still a stock pickers market and thank GOD I can pick them!
Until volume returns to this market, there is no way I am going to let go of 25-33% of my cash. I am going to continue to keep that on the sidelines while I wait for another perfect long setup like the stock that had a good day today. If another chart can show up like that, I would be more than happy to drop that cash position. But still with the low volume, it is hard to get 400% invested on margin.
Breakouts And Nice Round Bases Are Everywhere While Commodity Stocks Look Extremely Toppy
May 1, 2008 | Leave a Comment
I see nice round bases everywhere in EVERY long scan and CANSLIM scan that I run. Stocks like our HA long from 3/27/08 is already up 60% and MA from 8/2/06 is up almost 500% since then and now we have a lot of pretty green BOP filled charts starting to round out and complete bases. If they make handles, two or three-week tight bases, or another base on base, this market should be heading MUCH higher. Everywhere I look I see good chart patterns. Now if only I could get volume on the NYSE. But did you see the Nassy? Another BIG DAY OF GAINS ON HIGHER VOLUME. That is now five days of above average volume since 4/17. Only one was lower and it has seen a very bullish response today with even higher volume and much larger price gains.
Volume is starting to come back, my existing longs are now starting to put in some real strong gains, and bases are forming everywhere. This is definitely a market I want to be long. If we fail and reverse, it would be the NASTIEST reversal ever because this is how stocks should be acting before a powerful rally and a reversal of this super-bullish action would be in one word: NASTY!
Priorities In Life:
April 21, 2008 | Leave a Comment
1. Family
2. Surfing
3. Surfing
4. Surfing
5. Going long stocks breaking out to new highs, bouncing off the 50 DMA, from a nice five weeks to seven weeks flat base, cup with handle pattern, double bottom pattern, or saucer pattern with max green BOP the past three to six months, with huge accumulation on the uptrends and extremely quiet volume on the breakouts, when the general market is in an overall uptrend.
6. Surfing
7. Surfing
8. Surfing
9. Surfing
10. Surfing
I hope you all understand how important making money is to me. I would rather be surfing. God bless the United States of America for giving me this wonderful life where if I wanted to I only have to work 2 hours a day 5 days a week 10 hours a week, surf the rest of the time, and make a TON of money. Capitalism is the greatest thing ever!! God bless Capitalism as it is THE ONLY way to take someone who was DIRT POOR like me and help them become wealthy in heart, mind, spirit, and body. This is why I love the stock market and trading stocks but do not love money. Money can never create this kind of happiness. It has to come from something deeper within and around you.
Surfing is my money! 
Not Only Have Our Longs Outperformed The Overall Market The Past Month I Can Now See A Lot More Bases Being Built
April 19, 2008 | Leave a Comment
This means that if these bases all complete their right side, we are going to have a powerful market rally with or without volume. I am stunned by how many nice charts there are now AFTER JUST ONE bullish week where leading stocks outperformed the rest. The only bad news is besides the stock that we went heavily long two days ago that is now up 21.5%, there is nothing out there that has that perfect tight bullish price action where the price is bouncing off the 50 DMA and breaking out in a base longer than three weeks, that comes with extremely huge volume on the up days and extremely quiet volume on the pullbacks, and has a lot of green BOP showing all over the chart with max green BOP at least the last five days. There are a TON of high quality CANSLIM stocks that are setting up and breaking out of great bases, however, and when I can’t find my PERFECT charts, there is only one type of stocks to load up in. That is the CANSLIM quality. That is why MTL and TITN are very large positions yet neither one look like any of my ‘past big winners.’
I asked O’Neil which he would pick: a perfect chart in a stock with 70 EPS and 95 RS or a well-formed chat that is a bit wild, has some distribution, and other flaws but had a 99 EPS and 80 RS. His response was that you go with the stock with extremely strong fundamentals yet flawed chart. That is why TITN was a large buy yet has nothing but red BOP for the month of April.
A Zig-Zag Day Ends With A Big Yawn As Late-Day Weakness Sends All Indexes Lower
April 15, 2008 | Leave a Comment
Well, in all honesty trying to draw conclusions from a day like today is quite useless. In fact, anyone that spent any amount of time today trying to delve into the data to find something useful just spent a whole day wasting time. Today was simply a low volume pullback and nothing-more and nothing-less. I believe, without even looking, that this was the dullest day of trading for 2008.
By the end nothing exciting happened except all the indexes were mildly lower. Too bad that was not the case for my biggest holdings. Shockingly, the past few days, the few charts that are starting to look “near-perfect” (meaning they still have time and the technicals still need work) are all acting the worst. On Friday my biggest holding was my worst holding prompting me to sell 25% and then today two of the five stocks that reside in my IRA now need to be cut. This is simply something I have never! experienced in twelve years. You can clearly see, by going over my ‘past big winners’ on the .com site that from 2000 to the 2002 lows I still about ten stocks make significant gains from beautiful chart patterns. Those same exact patterns are NO WHERE to be found right now and when they do start to form they seem to be targeted immediately.
This has prompted one emailer to wonder if the style has been “figured” out. LOL. To that I say it is simply IMPOSSIBLE. Do you know how many stocks are out there? Do you know how many different ways and reasons people have to trade? Do you know how many people REFUSE to buy stocks breaking out to new highs? Do you know how many people do not know how to buy new highs correctly (ie, they buy too late or too extended or after a heavy volume pullback)? Do you know how many people do NOT use telecharts thus making BOP completely irrelevant? Do you know how many people can not tell you what a cup with handle is that LIVE on the trading floor (I know, I once went around taking a quiz and I also asked could it come from a downtrend and uptrend. So many said no the first question and if they did say yes they then said it did not matter where it formed)? The fact is that this system is out of style, FOR NOW, but it will not be long before it comes back.
Just A Simple Reminder About What I Do, While I Am Violently Ill
April 8, 2008 | Leave a Comment
It is a deader than dead market today and so far looks to be lowest volume of the year. So I guess I will use this time to let the newbies and unbelievers know that what I do for a living and how I find my biggest winners in the stock market is not based on my opinions or others opinions. It is based on facts and history. In fact, I am not sure how long IBD has been running this above their 20 rules for investment success but I just recently noticed it and wanted to post it here. Remember, when you go over all of my ‘past big winners’ and see the % returns in my commentary post at mauitrader.blogspot.com (2005-2007) and BWT (2007-now), that I am simply using history as my guide to the future based on nothing but factual research. I don’t like my opinions and I don’t like others opinions when it comes to the stock market. When it comes to sports or politics, FINE! But if you are not using some sort of methodology similar to CANSLIM, you are only preventing yourself from becoming a true professional. Remember:
These rules aren’t based on our personal opinion or those of Wall Street’s experts. IBD built detailed models of all the most successful stocks every year from 1880 to 2005. We analyzed their common characteristics, what factors existed before these very best companies had huge advances and how these factors changed when the stocks topped. So these rules represent how the market actually works. If you ignore them and rely instead on personal opinions, feelings or emotions, you are potentially arguing with how the market has functioned for over 120 years (IBD has 50 but OBVIOUSLY that is not right) and you will likely make more costly mistakes.
Strong Gains Come On Heavier Volume; Volume Still Below The 50 Day Volume Average (Institutions Were Not Buying On Tuesday)
April 1, 2008 | 1 Comment
Today was a very strong day for all the market indexes, as laggard stocks led the market higher on higher volume. However, that higher volume was below the 50 day volume average on the NYSE and the Nasdaq. Not only that, the IBD 100 and IBD 85-85 index, which is loaded with leading stocks that historically outperform the market by a 2.5x margin during uptrends, were up 3% and 2.7% respectively. This was even worse than the DJIA 3.2% gain which is a clear sign to me that there is no reason to declare a bottom here.
For those that are newbies and/or psychotic that email me 3x a day, we had an incredible bull market from March 2003 to January 2004, late 2004 to early 2005, and late 2005 to April 2006. After that we had another rally in late 2006. This one however, came on lower volume and had much weaker leadership with few new/fresh stocks making strong gains. In fact, only two big CANSLIM winners showed up in my charts with “near-perfect” chart patterns. While it was tough to make money there, it soon became obvious as the market sold off and erased the November-January gains in a month.
The market fought back but still leadership was poor. Then we had a rally from August to November that while was short produced us MANY 100% winners in two months. Granted that wasn’t the old 300% gains in one month of 2003. But when the VIX is mired in the 20s what do you expect? DRYS, MTL, APPY, and many others still produced solid gains that help make many CANSLIM investors year in a couple of months. I was more defensive then, but those that were aggressive got paid.
Bottom Callers Come Out Again And This Time They May Finally Be Right After Being Wrong The Other NINE!!! Times; CANSLIM Stocks Are Showing Up Now
April 1, 2008 | Leave a Comment
I have some great new longs tonight. And some of my current longs made some impressive gains today along with a couple of my favorites setting up new buy points.
Nobody in their right FREAKING mind knows if this is the bottom or not and to be honest volume is NOT being confirmed on the indexes but I do have some nice charts and if they build on this those charts will become great charts and I can then go back to KILLING the performance of the bottom callers. For now, they may be have gotten this bottom right. Too bad they will be going long the wrong stocks, while I will be going long our new leaders: G**, S***, M***, A***, S***, B**, S**, B**, and M**.
The charts in those stocks are not perfect but if this rally can start here and move higher to sideways for another month to three months, these charts will be beyond hot and while the idiot bottom callers are focused on their C, GS, BSC stocks, I will be getting my 300% returns again. Why not 500%?…………LOOK AT THE VIX!!! 22.638. 
Another Wild Intraday Session Ends With Not Much Happening By The EOD; Cash Is Still King In This Low Volume Market
March 31, 2008 | 23 Comments
It is hard to continuously say the same thing over and over but it is true. There is nothing to do in this market other than to keep your trades small and your cash high. Especially, if you are a perma-bull as we are now finishing the month down for the fifth time in-a-row. This is much different from anything we saw from 2003 to November 2007.
I know a few traders that for some ungodly reason were bullish after today’s close. This was because they said the Fed has a new way of making sure the market has bottomed. Once again, the same market call but this time from different players with a different excuse. No matter how many people try this argument with me and no matter for what reason it is, I simply will not believe it until it is true. When I see the market making strong gains on strong volume with top stocks breaking out and moving higher (heck there doesn’t even have to be heavy volume on the indexes; I just need some HOT freaking charts, for God’s sake), then I will wrap my arms around this market just like the perma-bulls have been the entire way down.
The right thing to keep on doing is raising cash with stocks that we are cutting our losses on or taking profits on and to keep the new buys or shorts small until a trend is clear. Right now, the market has no clear trend as a low volume trading environment has now entered the stock market which could help build some nice bases. However, nothing is hinting at that what-so-ever as few NEW and FRESH stocks are forming bases after a previous uptrend in innovative companies with great fundamentals.
Another Boring Day Ends With Stocks Pulling Back On Lower Volume; God Help Us All If Tomorrow Is As Slow
March 28, 2008 | 2 Comments
I had a lot of errands that I had to run tonight and the funny thing is that the most important one still is unfinished. And you know what, sometimes that is just the way it goes. I could have been upset that I did not get it done but instead I decided I would cash in my chips and wait for another day.
That right there is exactly how I see the stock market right now. This is a market that looked like it was going to deliver us something good and instead it ended up having a closed sign on it and now we can not get what we want. Many traders want to enter this store and take the merchandise out of it and play with it but the market is closed to CANSLIM investors and there is still nothing I really want in the store anyways.
If that did not make any sense, because I am too tired maybe this will. Tomorrow I am going to go driving around this island for surf. The chances are that nothing is going to be out there. But I am still going to bring a shortboard and longboard and PRAY that something exist out there. If I drive around and there is nothing out there, do you think I am going to paddle out into a lake of flatness? Or let’s say it doesn’t even hit my knees, do I then take my shortboard out? OF COURSE NOT. When there is nothing, there is nothing. Trying to surf waves that are NOT there is stupid and kooky. You want to look like a freaking schmuck? Paddle out into Waikiki waves with your shortboard. Let me know how the “vibe” is.
