Was It Really That Bad? Nassy Falls On Lower Volume And NYSE Volume Rises But Remains Below Average; How About MXC, CKX, FPP, PDO, ROYL, and CLR!!
May 20, 2008 | 2 Comments
It sure was not a bullish day but at the same token it does seem people are treating today as the beginning of the end and in my investment life I have learned that when everyone thinks that something is going to happen the opposite usually happens.
on that note, today’s selling sure did bring out a lot of people that are worried about further selling. To that, all I have to say is if you have some profits and do feel afraid you will lose some. Why don’t you sell 20%, lock in some gains, sit back and relax, and then let the stock TELL YOU what to do next. For now, I don’t see a reason for all the worrying that I saw today. How I judge how bad selling is is to see what it does to my current holdings and to see what the short scans bring up.
When it comes to the 70 plus stocks I am long (14 are of good size the rest are nothing that will change the fate of my world) there were ABSOLUTELY ZERO that gave me a FULL sell signal. Everything that pulled back did so either on low volume, barely pulled back on higher volume and had a bullish reversal before the close, and/or if it did pullback heavy it did not close below either significant support or the 50 DMA. Now I hate to be a party pooper for the HUGE short interest that is out there but facts remain that when a market is ready to top I will not only have a few partial sells I WILL HAVE A FEW FULL SELLS. Tonight, I had NO full sells.
The First Monster Stock Of 2008, From A Perfect Chart Setup, Is Now Up 50% In Little Under A Month
May 14, 2008 | 2 Comments
Just a public shoutout and congratulations to everyone that recognized DGLY was a near-perfect/perfect chart setup that along with the very strong fundamentals made it a clear MONSTER STOCK. Now while we have two stocks that we have bought that were perfect when they started out, only one has remained perfect. The other one is up anywhere from 5% to 11% depending on where you bought or added but the real MONSTER STOCK that still has the perfect chart pattern is DGLY and now that DGLY is up 50% I can now post it publicly on the blog.
This is a congratulations to those that have studied ALL of my ‘Past Big Winners’ and recognized that this chart pattern MIGHT launch this type of move. This move should just be part of the early stages of a Monster Stock as it has not even been a full month since we went long (the morning of 4/17 and 4/18) and we already have a 50% gain.
To those that have already sold this stock, after I purchased it you have no one to blame but yourself. Instead of watching your stocks intraday, you might want to take a few hours out of one of your days and study EVERY single one of the chart patterns of my ‘Past Big Winners.’ More of these will show up again and others have tried to work out. Earlier this year NEU, CMP, LSR, BRKR, and ADEP have all tried to be Monster Stocks. CMP, NEU, and LSR were OK but all lost that beauty pretty quickly. ADEP and BRKR were failures.
How Much Longer Will The Good Time (The Rally Has Not Been Long Enough, To Be “Times”) Last?
May 9, 2008 | 1 Comment
I am not for sure about that answer but I have to admit the charts overall still look like they are trying to make a bottom. But like I have continuously warned about: if volume does not come back into this market on the upside, we are in danger of reversing some decent base building and that will probably discourage a lot of market participants which could open the door to more selling.
However, there is nothing wrong with being prepared, but until the market actually cracks, I will have to go with the short-term to intermediate term uptrend and ride the wave for however long it wants to last. The sad thing is that the way some of my stocks that looked great just a couple of weeks ago now look only average to somewhat above average. This is OK but in a brand new bull market, we would normally have 5-6 near-perfect to perfect charts right now. Instead I have one. One chart STILL looks “hot” out of about 4 or 5 that were starting to. Basically this has been the theme ever since April 2006 but thank God some gems here and there have still been able to shine through the rough.
It has been a long time since a WHOLE BUNCH of stocks setup in proper to perfect bases and then broke out and ran away. The truth is, I am only finding a few gems here and there and usually when I find a gem it fails. However, for every 3 or 4 that fail and that we can cut quickly thus saving ourselves a LOT of pain, we will always have one that can run. They might not be of high quality like AFSI but as long as 1 or 2 are around I guess that is good enough. But the further we go along without these near-perfect to perfect charts setting up or even holding on the more problems we will run into in the future.
Nasdaq 100 And PHLX Semiconductor Index Lead The Way Higher On Higher Volume; Leading Stocks Are Setting Up And/Or Breaking Out Everywhere
May 2, 2008 | 1 Comment
COMMENTARY WILL BE SHORT AS MY SURF SESSION WAS EXTREMELY LONG AND TIRING.
I was impressed by today’s stock market session, especially when it came to leading stocks, tech stocks, and even more specifically semiconductor stocks. It was amazing to get a rally in such high-tech group of stocks. What made today’s rally even better was that volume increased on the Nasdaq and was above the 50 day volume average for the fifth time in the past few weeks. This was the fourth time it was a big up day with volume above average. And even though the NYSE has only had twenty-nine straight days without volume being above average, it is at least in an uptrend and that with low volume is OK with more, for now.
A lot of people are worried about the market being right at resistance and being oversold since our lows. You know what, that is fair, I will agree with that. We do need to be aware that we are running into resistance, we are overbought, and the volume has been close to pathetic during the rally so it is possible we could run into some heavy volume selling.
Breakouts And Nice Round Bases Are Everywhere While Commodity Stocks Look Extremely Toppy
May 1, 2008 | Leave a Comment
I see nice round bases everywhere in EVERY long scan and CANSLIM scan that I run. Stocks like our HA long from 3/27/08 is already up 60% and MA from 8/2/06 is up almost 500% since then and now we have a lot of pretty green BOP filled charts starting to round out and complete bases. If they make handles, two or three-week tight bases, or another base on base, this market should be heading MUCH higher. Everywhere I look I see good chart patterns. Now if only I could get volume on the NYSE. But did you see the Nassy? Another BIG DAY OF GAINS ON HIGHER VOLUME. That is now five days of above average volume since 4/17. Only one was lower and it has seen a very bullish response today with even higher volume and much larger price gains.
Volume is starting to come back, my existing longs are now starting to put in some real strong gains, and bases are forming everywhere. This is definitely a market I want to be long. If we fail and reverse, it would be the NASTIEST reversal ever because this is how stocks should be acting before a powerful rally and a reversal of this super-bullish action would be in one word: NASTY!
Nasdaq Leads The Way Higher On Slightly Higher Volume As Semiconductor Stocks Account For Much Of The Gains; AAPL Disappoints
April 24, 2008 | Leave a Comment
It was another typical day that we have seen recently where not a lot gets accomplished and we pretty much just give back whatever happened the day before in the opposite direction. Still, I do believe, that today’s gains coming with higher volume is a positive overall. And if you look at your Nasdaq daily chart, you will see that pattern show up a lot the past month (lower volume selling, higher volume rally). That is the reason the Nasdaq carries an ACC/DIS rating of A- which makes it the most heavily accumulated index out there.
Today, however, that was minor compared to the SOX’s 4% powerful rally that saw shares of BRCM leap today on huge volume. I am starting to believe that what I COULD be seeing is a rotation from commodity stocks (which don’t appear to be done yet at all) into technology stocks. That can best be viewed by taking a look at your daily SOX chart for 2008. As you can see we have a ton of excellent price action to go along with all that support right in the 340 to 350 zone. The move in the SOX today gets it ever closer to being able to take back and claim its 200 DMA. Tech stocks led in 9900 and big-cap tech did well in 2003 also. However, since then it has been all commodities but if the parabolic runs I am seeing in POT MOS AGU FEED etc…I will continue to monitor those stocks for a blowoff top and watch Semi/Tech stocks for more breakouts or possible bottoms.
I HATE calling bottoms while a stock market is falling and I hate saying a stock has bottomed until after the fact it looks bottomed. When I look at the stocks in the Semi index, I can honestly say, that I am starting to get that “feel-good” feeling in my body where I think that we are just moments away from launching a big rally. However, anything can happen in this market and I promise you that INDEED ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN. EVEN THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE this market is going to resolve itself to the upside via some tech stocks trying to regain a strong uptrend. But once again, though I feel good and it appears eventually the SOX can take off and run, anything can happen and that is why I am prepared for anything and everything. Up, down, sideways, or a halt. I have my game plan ready to go!!
Do You Have That Feeling That We Might Not Have Put In The Ultimate Bottom?
April 22, 2008 | 1 Comment
Today was not that bad, overall, minus a few stocks that were completely earnings related. However, the fact that volume did in fact pick up is still none-the-less technically a distribution day. Still with volume well below the 50 day volume average, it sure is hard to get too bearish over a day like this. But at the exact same time, it sure is hard to get really bullish here when I see so many potential nice charts start to setup only to not make it.
The higher volume selling that hit the market today was the second below-average volume distribution day in a couple of weeks. While long-term this is nothing serious, on the short-term a few more days of this could put a monkey-wrench into this rally. Right now, as it stands, though, I would not be too worried about these two days since the put/call raises to such high levels on these kind of days. If the crowd was getting more complacent, I might be a little worried that the selling might pick up.
But the fact volume remains low and the fact that almost zero stocks have shown up the past two weeks as strong short candidates is a clear tell that this isn’t a market you necessarily want to be short…or long really.
Not Only Have Our Longs Outperformed The Overall Market The Past Month I Can Now See A Lot More Bases Being Built
April 19, 2008 | Leave a Comment
This means that if these bases all complete their right side, we are going to have a powerful market rally with or without volume. I am stunned by how many nice charts there are now AFTER JUST ONE bullish week where leading stocks outperformed the rest. The only bad news is besides the stock that we went heavily long two days ago that is now up 21.5%, there is nothing out there that has that perfect tight bullish price action where the price is bouncing off the 50 DMA and breaking out in a base longer than three weeks, that comes with extremely huge volume on the up days and extremely quiet volume on the pullbacks, and has a lot of green BOP showing all over the chart with max green BOP at least the last five days. There are a TON of high quality CANSLIM stocks that are setting up and breaking out of great bases, however, and when I can’t find my PERFECT charts, there is only one type of stocks to load up in. That is the CANSLIM quality. That is why MTL and TITN are very large positions yet neither one look like any of my ‘past big winners.’
I asked O’Neil which he would pick: a perfect chart in a stock with 70 EPS and 95 RS or a well-formed chat that is a bit wild, has some distribution, and other flaws but had a 99 EPS and 80 RS. His response was that you go with the stock with extremely strong fundamentals yet flawed chart. That is why TITN was a large buy yet has nothing but red BOP for the month of April.
Some Days Are Just Better Than Others; This Was Not One Of Them
April 7, 2008 | Leave a Comment
I will try to get back here and right an intelligenct report on today’s stock market action. But it can basically can be summed up as “we are biding our time.” We are still simply waiting to see which direction volume is going to come in. If it is for the bulls, we are going to have a great time as we have a lot of very pretty charts now setting up. However, all it takes is a couple of bad days, ie, FEED, to destroy a hot stock chart.
On Thursday, the chart of FEED was one of my favorites. By Friday night it became one of my most scary longs as I had that quick revelation that this “could” happen to every single leading stock we can find. Therefore, it is still all about cash. And speaking of cash, yours truly just spent a lot more last night.
Last night I became VIOLENTLY ill for the second time since September. So bad in fact that I was forced to go to the hospital again! This is really starting to go out of control and I feel like I am losing a grip on my physical body as it is now finally starting to do stuff without my notice/interest. While I am still surfing, I might as well live it up because I can not be taking 45 minute drives to the Hospital every time a severe illness (which is possibly a result of the beta serons).
Stocks Selloff On Higher Volume, Helping Send Some Indexes To New 52-Week Closing Lows
March 7, 2008 | Leave a Comment
Stocks sold off yet again but this time it did so on higher volume which is helping make my point that selling can start off slowly and pickup as it sells off. If you look at the downtrend since last February, you can see that this is the case now as it has been in the past with other market selloffs.
The good news, today, is that, like most sessions recently, the market staged a very volatile and powerful reversal. This time it was to the bull side and it was needed for the trapped longs as stocks looked like they were going to put in another very bearish day of trading.
The past two days has the feeling of a market that is ready to start its downtrend, once again. This would be the third leg down, since the top in November. And just like when the market topped, there are still way too many people that are looking to buy stocks here. If more people were not looking for a bottom, we could look at this selloff as a bullish situation as it would get us one step closer to a real bottom where we can get HOT charts again. Too bad we don’t have anything new and fresh setting up out there. Instead it is the same mess everywhere, and when that is taken with all the “dumb” money looking for a bottom, you have a market that could get very ugly.
And very ugly is not what people are looking for. Now, I know the data we are receiving out there is very bearish and I do know that we have had a 24% pullback in the Nasdaq. However, that simply is not going to cut it right now. Like I have said, too many people are looking for a bottom, and some very ignorant (who think they are very smart) people are starting to make some bold statements.
