HAPPY EASTER!!!, HAPPY GOOD FRIDAY!!!, AND HAPPY PESACH (PASSOVER)!!!; Stocks End Short Week With More Gains On Light Trade
April 7, 2007 | Leave a Comment
Stocks started the morning off with a gap lower on the back of a currency tightening measures in China. But after the gap lower, stocks steadily climbed higher on very quiet trade for the rest of the day. That reversal off the gap lower was caused by the Labor Department announcing that jobless claims this week fell within forecast. Those jobless claims this week rose by 11,000 to 321,000.
Also helping to lift stocks was a couple of merger and acquisition related announcements. Kirk Kerkorian has made a $4.5 billion bid for DCX and WEBM agreed to be acquired by Software AG. WEBM rose 27% on the announcement. This now puts the 1Q M&A deals up 27% over this time last year. $1.1 trillion worth of M&A deals this year has us on pace to beat last years record. More amazing is private equity deals. Those have risen 47%, year-over-year in 2007 so far.
Combine the positive jobless claims with the M&A deals, and with most traders taking Thursday off to have a very long weekend, and you had a recipe perfect for higher stock prices, despite oil climbing back over $64 on the news that the EIA saying that oil inventories declined for the eight-week in a row.
HAPPY EASTER!!!, HAPPY GOOD FRIDAY!!!, AND HAPPY PESACH (PASSOVER)!!!; Stocks End Short Week With More Gains On Light Trade
April 6, 2007 | Leave a Comment
Stocks started the morning off with a gap lower on the back of a currency tightening measures in China. But after the gap lower, stocks steadily climbed higher on very quiet trade for the rest of the day. That reversal off the gap lower was caused by the Labor Department announcing that jobless claims this week fell within forecast. Those jobless claims this week rose by 11,000 to 321,000. Read more
Stressed Out And Tired; Stocks End The Week With A Boring Session, Leaving The Indexes Mixed And Flat
April 1, 2007 | Leave a Comment
Another wild-yet-boring intraday session came to an end, with stocks going nowhere. The lack of action today is a bit of a surprise, considering all the news items we had to digest. First, we got off to a positive start and continued higher early on, on the back of a bunch of macro news. The core personal consumption index rose .3% in Feb (biggest jump since August) and personal income and spending rose .6%, contributing to the fact that core inflation is now at 2.4% which is outside the Fed comfort zone of 1%-2%. This data should make it clear that the Fed will not be cutting interest rates anytime soon.
There were two more headlines of interest: The University of Michigan consumer confidence survey was revised down to 88.4 from 88.8 and the Chicago Purchasing Managers index rose to 61.7 in March from 47.9 in February. Anything over 50 on the CPMI indicates expansion.
Stressed Out And Tired; Stocks End The Week With A Boring Session, Leaving The Indexes Mixed And Flat
April 1, 2007 | Leave a Comment
Another wild-yet-boring intraday session came to an end, with stocks going nowhere. The lack of action today is a bit of a surprise, considering all the news items we had to digest. First, we got off to a positive start and continued higher early on, on the back of a bunch of macro news. The core personal consumption index rose .3% in Feb (biggest jump since August) and personal income and spending rose .6%, contributing to the fact that core inflation is now at 2.4% which is outside the Fed comfort zone of 1%-2%. This data should make it clear that the Fed will not be cutting interest rates anytime soon. Read more
Bullish Intraday Reversal, Helps Stocks Avoid Another Possible Ugly Day; Stock Indexes Close Higher On Lower Volume
March 29, 2007 | Leave a Comment
A bullish Q4 GDP final revision higher to 2.5% from 2.2%, along with jobless claims falling for the fourth week in a row, helped start stocks off on a very bullish foot before the opening bell. But soon after the opening bell, stocks trended lower all day until a strong late afternoon rally sent stocks up into the closing bell with the SP 500 even closing near its HOD. This reversal in the face of rising oil to six-month highs of over $66 a barrel and gasoline future to eight month highs at $2.1355, due to the tension between Iran and the free-world, has to be considered very impressive. Read more
Stock Indexes Close Lower On Higher Volume, Producing The First Distribution Day Since The Follow-Through On Wednesday; Is This Rally Done Already?
March 29, 2007 | Leave a Comment
Stocks turned tail Wednesday and for the second day in a row dip-buyers did not show up as stocks moved lower, with an intraday roller-coaster ride mid-day after a speech by Ben to a Congressional panel, closing near the lows of the day. Things got off to a bad start, after the February durable good came out below expectations of a 3.5% gain with an actual 2.5% gain. That might have been bad but the ex-transportation numbers hitting YOY growth lows not seen since 2003 and capital goods coming in 1.2% lower and at lows not seen since 2004 were probably what really gave traders a scare. On top of that, add oil hitting six-month highs of $68 after-hours and settling in at $64.08 after weekly inventories were announced falling by 900k, comments by Ben that inflation is still a worry, and the tensions between Britain and Iran over the naval incident and you have plenty of reasons for stocks to go lower; and lower they went. Read more
Stocks Finish Higher Across The Board But Suffer A Late-Day Selloff; Lower Volume Shows Institutions Are Not Interested
March 9, 2007 | Leave a Comment
My girlfriends parents arrived on Maui, today, so I spent all day with the family. Therefore, I was not around at all after the closing bell.
However, I have reviewed my charts and can honestly say that nothing has changed. The gap up this morning and steady drift all day gave way to a selloff sometime after 2pm EST. That was a pretty nasty selloff and that has now happened for the third day in a row. Combine that with the lower volume and you have another technical negative. This bounce should see some volume if it is going to have any staying power. Read more
The Oversold Bounce I Expected Arrived Earlier Than Anticipated; Big Gains Come On Lower Volume
March 6, 2007 | Leave a Comment
Stocks staged an extremely strong rally, off the back of an overnight rally in Asia and Europe. But the big log-jam higher came during comments by Ben arguing for more regulation over the mortgage giants FNM and FRE. Stocks were pulling back slightly ahead of those comments. However, that being a reason for the rally is hogwash. The reason was that stocks were beaten a lot over a very short period of time and a very powerful oversold bounce was to be expected. There was a bit of bad econ news today out of the factory orders. Orders fell 5.6%, below economist expectations and coming in with the worst drop since July 2000. This had no effect on the market, as can be seen below, as all stock indexes recouped all of Monday’s losses. Read more
Stocks Finish Green Across The Board, As The Fed Begins Its Two-Day FOMC Meeting; Crude Oil Jumps 5.5%.
January 30, 2007 | Leave a Comment
As is usual on a day where the Fed meets to decide interest rates, stock pretty much did nothing. However, the overall trend of the market is up and stocks followed the path of least resistance, closing green across the board. Even a gigantic jump in oil could not stop the market from throwing up positive gains.
At the closing bell, the SP 600 rose .7%, the SP 500 rallied .6%, the Nasdaq gained .3%, and the DJIA closed higher by .25%. Read more
Stocks End Mixed On Lower Volume, As A Big Merger Rumor Helps Lift Stocks Off Their Lows.
January 27, 2007 | Leave a Comment
Stocks started the day off very strong but soon started selling off, after strong durable goods orders, strong new-home sales, and bond yields ticking higher sent signals to traders that the Fed would not be cutting rates any time soon. Thankfully, a rumor of Bank of America and Countrywide Financial merging and more positive earnings helped lift stocks well off their lows. Read more
