A very Boring Session Ends With The Market Higher But On Lower Volume
May 23, 2008 | 3 Comments
Today’s market really did not have anything meaningful within it to focus on today. But what can be said about today’s rally is that it came on lower volume which is not what you like to see after a distribution day. However, it is good news that out of all of my longs, even though I had plenty where profits need to be taken, there was not a single one that needed to be completely cut for breaking the original thesis of the trade.
Without anything happening today that changes anything in the markets, I think it would be a waste of my time and yours if I put a bunch of junk up here that was just words to fill up a page. Kind of like most of the stock market commentary I read out there. There sure are a lot of long-winded people like me out there. Anyways, if you are at least a silver subscriber you have plenty to read on the new silver longs/shorts sections as I have typed out a few important notes over there.
For those that will still be here on Friday (a lot of our chat members have already checked out), I hope you enjoy trying to stay awake. Because that will more than likely be the call of duty for us tomorrow. I would not be surprised if volume is near the lowest or actually is the lowest day of the year and if we can move more than .5% up or down I will be floored.
I Guess It Really Was That Bad
May 21, 2008 | Leave a Comment
I am not panic selling ANYTHING! But there is no doubt today’s action is negative and does hint that the uptrend very well could be over already. However, like always I wait to make my decision after all the data from the close is in. That will not be for another few hours.
No matter what, though, I will be locking in gains in a lot of stocks that initially have made big moves but have given so much back in a few short days that we must protect some gains just in case they become losses. So there will be a lot of selling tonight but if I am long a stock and it is still in an uptrend above the 50 day moving average there is no way I am going to sell it all.
Is this action disappointing? You better believe it is. Am I surprised? No. I have been telling you that there are no more perfect charts, have warned you about all the perfect charts turning into mediocre charts, and have been complaining about the low volume rally.
Lower Volume Selloff Hits Stocks As NYSE Volume Is Still Below Average; DRYS, EXM, and DSX All Put In Nasty Intraday Reversals Near Old Highs
May 19, 2008 | 1 Comment
I am not going to write a long commentary tonight as I really don’t see anything too important out there that I need to spend too much time focusing on. The biggest event was the late day selloff in the stock market. However, some are forgetting that the DJIA and SP 500 still closed higher and that volume was lower on both exchanges, with volume being below the 50 day volume average on the NYSE for the 41st straight day in-a-row.
Also, don’t forget the NYSE short-interest has hit ANOTHER all-time high at 13.66 meaning that it would take 14 days to cover all the shorts on the NYSE right now, on average volume. Even without volume, the market has an upward bias and I do not want to short a low-volume market especially when the short-interest are at astronomical levels in so many stocks. That is how you end up with MXC and PDO.
At the same end that I don’t want to be short or not long this strong market, I suggest that those that CONTINUE to buy stocks the day before earnings STOP. I always take my signals on my charts, almost NO MATTER WHAT. This takes all emotions out. But when I saw that PWRD had earnings my total buy that I had planned for Monday morning was chopped by 90%. Those that were in the chat room KNEW I did this. However, those here couldn’t have but I made it clear that this stock was not safe to go long for newbies. Thankfully, I did not see any horror stories about PWRD. But I am still disappointed as I thought I had myself a possible monster stock. But since it has failed, the last thing you will see me do is justify a WRONG position and hold on to it “hoping” that it comes back. Nope, that stock, along with GA, must be taken out. BOTH of those stocks show why buying a move the day of the earnings is a bad idea. Both charts setup up a buy signal the day before earnings and had I FOLLOWED MY OWN RULES I would have a little bit more money in my pockets.
Not Only Have Our Longs Outperformed The Overall Market The Past Month I Can Now See A Lot More Bases Being Built
April 19, 2008 | Leave a Comment
This means that if these bases all complete their right side, we are going to have a powerful market rally with or without volume. I am stunned by how many nice charts there are now AFTER JUST ONE bullish week where leading stocks outperformed the rest. The only bad news is besides the stock that we went heavily long two days ago that is now up 21.5%, there is nothing out there that has that perfect tight bullish price action where the price is bouncing off the 50 DMA and breaking out in a base longer than three weeks, that comes with extremely huge volume on the up days and extremely quiet volume on the pullbacks, and has a lot of green BOP showing all over the chart with max green BOP at least the last five days. There are a TON of high quality CANSLIM stocks that are setting up and breaking out of great bases, however, and when I can’t find my PERFECT charts, there is only one type of stocks to load up in. That is the CANSLIM quality. That is why MTL and TITN are very large positions yet neither one look like any of my ‘past big winners.’
I asked O’Neil which he would pick: a perfect chart in a stock with 70 EPS and 95 RS or a well-formed chat that is a bit wild, has some distribution, and other flaws but had a 99 EPS and 80 RS. His response was that you go with the stock with extremely strong fundamentals yet flawed chart. That is why TITN was a large buy yet has nothing but red BOP for the month of April.
Just A Simple Reminder About What I Do, While I Am Violently Ill
April 8, 2008 | Leave a Comment
It is a deader than dead market today and so far looks to be lowest volume of the year. So I guess I will use this time to let the newbies and unbelievers know that what I do for a living and how I find my biggest winners in the stock market is not based on my opinions or others opinions. It is based on facts and history. In fact, I am not sure how long IBD has been running this above their 20 rules for investment success but I just recently noticed it and wanted to post it here. Remember, when you go over all of my ‘past big winners’ and see the % returns in my commentary post at mauitrader.blogspot.com (2005-2007) and BWT (2007-now), that I am simply using history as my guide to the future based on nothing but factual research. I don’t like my opinions and I don’t like others opinions when it comes to the stock market. When it comes to sports or politics, FINE! But if you are not using some sort of methodology similar to CANSLIM, you are only preventing yourself from becoming a true professional. Remember:
These rules aren’t based on our personal opinion or those of Wall Street’s experts. IBD built detailed models of all the most successful stocks every year from 1880 to 2005. We analyzed their common characteristics, what factors existed before these very best companies had huge advances and how these factors changed when the stocks topped. So these rules represent how the market actually works. If you ignore them and rely instead on personal opinions, feelings or emotions, you are potentially arguing with how the market has functioned for over 120 years (IBD has 50 but OBVIOUSLY that is not right) and you will likely make more costly mistakes.
Market Quietly Consolidates Yesterday’s Gains
April 2, 2008 | Leave a Comment
There was nothing great or horrible about today. The only thing I can say is that the retards who told me to buy stocks at the open sure were wrong. I do not daytrade and anyone that was trading like this today has a lot of work to do to become a great trader/investor.
The pullback in the spoos (up on IBD) and small gains (on tcnet; on IBD and RM I show small losses) by the nyse and nassy were very solid overall as volume did dip. However, a lot of strong CANSLIM stocks that I went long yesterday went from looking great with strong gains to looking OK with good gains by the close. This is not how leading stocks act at the start of a brand new nine-month “time to get filthy rich” bull market. This is instead how bear market rallies develop. Could it turn into a bull market? Sure. But it is still going to have to prove itself by making strong gains on heavy to huge volume. Volume under the 50 day volume average is your clear tell that only amateurs are trading (you and me). The professional money has only come off the sidelines four times last month in the Nassy.
Until these guys start moving the market one way or the other, you would be FOOLISH to load up on anything long or short. Nothing has changed today from yesterday. I still have NO HOT CANSLIM or speculative long charts. I only have about 50 really good looking charts. And even the best looking ones are losing technical strength. So this is still not a market I have ANY interest in being heavily long. I remain around 70% cash with ONLY 5% short (how does this make me a perma-bear, Wendy/Sandy Wright?) with the rest of the port in longs.
Bottom Callers Come Out Again And This Time They May Finally Be Right After Being Wrong The Other NINE!!! Times; CANSLIM Stocks Are Showing Up Now
April 1, 2008 | Leave a Comment
I have some great new longs tonight. And some of my current longs made some impressive gains today along with a couple of my favorites setting up new buy points.
Nobody in their right FREAKING mind knows if this is the bottom or not and to be honest volume is NOT being confirmed on the indexes but I do have some nice charts and if they build on this those charts will become great charts and I can then go back to KILLING the performance of the bottom callers. For now, they may be have gotten this bottom right. Too bad they will be going long the wrong stocks, while I will be going long our new leaders: G**, S***, M***, A***, S***, B**, S**, B**, and M**.
The charts in those stocks are not perfect but if this rally can start here and move higher to sideways for another month to three months, these charts will be beyond hot and while the idiot bottom callers are focused on their C, GS, BSC stocks, I will be getting my 300% returns again. Why not 500%?…………LOOK AT THE VIX!!! 22.638. 
