What A Difference One Week Makes; Leading Stocks Signal That There May Be More Work To Do Before A Real Strong Rally Can Ever Take Hold
May 24, 2008 | 4 Comments
There is no doubt that I am suffering my WORST Multiple Sclerosis attack to date. Since Saturday I have basically been bed ridden and RIGHT OFF THE BAT I want to apologies if any of this is a little hard to follow because I feel like trash. I am not sure if this will effect what I am about to write but do me a favor and do NOT bust my balls if I misplace a word or misspell a word. My life is too short to deal with this.
I had a completely different approach in mind when I first wanted to write this but I figure I will stick with the facts. The facts are as quickly as this market looked like good times could be returning it in fact was possibly throwing us false “all clear” signal. Now while I never fully bought into this rally due to the volume, I still held hope that the rotation that I started to see into technology stocks would continue. Now I am beginning to wonder if that is what is happening or if they are making it appear that this was the case just to shut the door in our face.
At the end of last week things were looking very strong for the stock market, despite the low volume, as a lot of stocks that were in our portfolios were producing some large gains. But without ANY warning or clear reversal signal, the stocks started pulling back slowly getting rid of all the gains. The lucky part is that we did sell SOME as they pulled back since volume was higher. But the stocks pulling back on low volume and green BOP gave us no reason to sell. Since stocks that move up 20% in two weeks should always be held for at least eight-weeks it seemed stupid to sell anything pulling back. However, now it appears we should have taken more gains. This is the one time not taking profits quickly hurt us. The low volume was the tell and I should understand that next time as this is nto the first time I have witnessed this action.
A Very Bullish Start Ends With Most Indexes Closing At Or Near Their LOD; My Best Stocks Held Up Well During The Selling
May 15, 2008 | 2 Comments
Well, that sure is not how you like to close them. Especially with volume picking up there while we sold off right after hitting the 200 day moving average on the Nasdaq. The good news is that the market still gapped high enough in the morning that all major market indexes were able to close with gains. But there was a negative blip in regards to leading stocks as the IBD 100 fell 1.2%.
Thankfully, even though volume ticked slightly higher on the Nasdaq, the NYSE had volume come in 1% lower on the reversal. To go along with that the volume was below average on the NYSE for the 38th straight session, volume was barely above the 50 DMA on the Nasdaq. With the volume being higher and prices being higher that would still be bullish despite the reversal. The volume simply was not full of conviction in the form of huge clear distribution. I guess you could count 4/1 as average daily volume on the NYSE, by the way, but still it wasn’t above average so I guess the point still stands.
Overall, the market is in the same situation as it was last week. We are rallying on lower volume with this clearly being a stock picker’s market. The good news, for me is that is what I specialize at.
The First Monster Stock Of 2008, From A Perfect Chart Setup, Is Now Up 50% In Little Under A Month
May 14, 2008 | 2 Comments
Just a public shoutout and congratulations to everyone that recognized DGLY was a near-perfect/perfect chart setup that along with the very strong fundamentals made it a clear MONSTER STOCK. Now while we have two stocks that we have bought that were perfect when they started out, only one has remained perfect. The other one is up anywhere from 5% to 11% depending on where you bought or added but the real MONSTER STOCK that still has the perfect chart pattern is DGLY and now that DGLY is up 50% I can now post it publicly on the blog.
This is a congratulations to those that have studied ALL of my ‘Past Big Winners’ and recognized that this chart pattern MIGHT launch this type of move. This move should just be part of the early stages of a Monster Stock as it has not even been a full month since we went long (the morning of 4/17 and 4/18) and we already have a 50% gain.
To those that have already sold this stock, after I purchased it you have no one to blame but yourself. Instead of watching your stocks intraday, you might want to take a few hours out of one of your days and study EVERY single one of the chart patterns of my ‘Past Big Winners.’ More of these will show up again and others have tried to work out. Earlier this year NEU, CMP, LSR, BRKR, and ADEP have all tried to be Monster Stocks. CMP, NEU, and LSR were OK but all lost that beauty pretty quickly. ADEP and BRKR were failures.
Bullish Intraday Reversal For Second Day In-A-Row Has Stock Indexes Closing Near The HOD (And Is The Reason Why You Should Not Panic Sell And Watch Stocks Intraday); Leading Stocks And Semiconductor Stocks Take Charge Which Is Just What You Want To See During A Rally
April 26, 2008 | Leave a Comment
I am not sure how strong and long this commentary is going to be as I have been surfing some giant waves and have been spending the past two days at the beach most of the day watching the surfing contest at Ho’okipa amongst the HS ripping groms. These kids paddle out into 10 foot face POWERFUL HEAVY waves and charge like it is nobody’s business. All of these kids surfing today were experienced but if any of them would have been newbies THEY WOULD HAVE BEEN KILLED as the waves were way too much for most mortals. These amazing kids not only surfed these waves but a lot of them now need to go spend an extra $300 to $800 for new boards as I saw at least seven surfboards break in-half! Yes the waves were that big.
What is the point of that. The point is that the windy, rough, and scary conditions were almost too much to hold a contest and the fact they did today was pretty dangerous. I take the conditions to at Ho’okipa and see a correlation to this recent market. The only exception is that the big waves do not relate to big gains and big trends but are like the volatility and lack of follow-through in this market. This market is not a market for newbies. Newbies paddling out into 10 ft. waves that are wind blown and AS ROUGH AS CAN BE is a disaster waiting to happen.
Nasdaq Leads The Way Higher On Slightly Higher Volume As Semiconductor Stocks Account For Much Of The Gains; AAPL Disappoints
April 24, 2008 | Leave a Comment
It was another typical day that we have seen recently where not a lot gets accomplished and we pretty much just give back whatever happened the day before in the opposite direction. Still, I do believe, that today’s gains coming with higher volume is a positive overall. And if you look at your Nasdaq daily chart, you will see that pattern show up a lot the past month (lower volume selling, higher volume rally). That is the reason the Nasdaq carries an ACC/DIS rating of A- which makes it the most heavily accumulated index out there.
Today, however, that was minor compared to the SOX’s 4% powerful rally that saw shares of BRCM leap today on huge volume. I am starting to believe that what I COULD be seeing is a rotation from commodity stocks (which don’t appear to be done yet at all) into technology stocks. That can best be viewed by taking a look at your daily SOX chart for 2008. As you can see we have a ton of excellent price action to go along with all that support right in the 340 to 350 zone. The move in the SOX today gets it ever closer to being able to take back and claim its 200 DMA. Tech stocks led in 9900 and big-cap tech did well in 2003 also. However, since then it has been all commodities but if the parabolic runs I am seeing in POT MOS AGU FEED etc…I will continue to monitor those stocks for a blowoff top and watch Semi/Tech stocks for more breakouts or possible bottoms.
I HATE calling bottoms while a stock market is falling and I hate saying a stock has bottomed until after the fact it looks bottomed. When I look at the stocks in the Semi index, I can honestly say, that I am starting to get that “feel-good” feeling in my body where I think that we are just moments away from launching a big rally. However, anything can happen in this market and I promise you that INDEED ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN. EVEN THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE this market is going to resolve itself to the upside via some tech stocks trying to regain a strong uptrend. But once again, though I feel good and it appears eventually the SOX can take off and run, anything can happen and that is why I am prepared for anything and everything. Up, down, sideways, or a halt. I have my game plan ready to go!!
Another Quiet Day Of Consolidating The Gains; Lower Volume After A Day Of Solid Gains Is What I Like To See!
April 21, 2008 | Leave a Comment
It was another great day overall for those that are long the stocks we are long (well at least until AH when one got a gnarly ride) as the market took its time drifting around today before a strong close that saw the market basically end where it started. That is except for the SP 600 which fell .7% and the IBD 100, which is loaded full of leading stocks with great fundamentals and strong price action, which rose 1.2%. The 1.2% gain by leading stocks is very impressive during a day where the indexes basically closed flat to slightly lower. This is yet another clear sing that despite the lack of any volume out there, shorting a dull market is not a very smart idea.
Some of the bullish data points on today’s session includes the new highs which once again beat the new lows. This time it was 164 to 97. Not a killing but still good enough. As long as I continue to see new highs beating new lows on this list I will continue to enjoy the uptrend even if it continues on with small volume. The put/call also rose today to .81 from .77, despite the IBD 100’s 1.2% rally. This has to be taken as a slightly bullish development considering that more people bought puts (meaning they became more bearish) despite the market rallying. This is probably because those put buyers were more focused on the SP 500 and SP 600. Too bad they were, some stocks that we are long like WSCI are showing why that is such a bad idea
Priorities In Life:
April 21, 2008 | Leave a Comment
1. Family
2. Surfing
3. Surfing
4. Surfing
5. Going long stocks breaking out to new highs, bouncing off the 50 DMA, from a nice five weeks to seven weeks flat base, cup with handle pattern, double bottom pattern, or saucer pattern with max green BOP the past three to six months, with huge accumulation on the uptrends and extremely quiet volume on the breakouts, when the general market is in an overall uptrend.
6. Surfing
7. Surfing
8. Surfing
9. Surfing
10. Surfing
I hope you all understand how important making money is to me. I would rather be surfing. God bless the United States of America for giving me this wonderful life where if I wanted to I only have to work 2 hours a day 5 days a week 10 hours a week, surf the rest of the time, and make a TON of money. Capitalism is the greatest thing ever!! God bless Capitalism as it is THE ONLY way to take someone who was DIRT POOR like me and help them become wealthy in heart, mind, spirit, and body. This is why I love the stock market and trading stocks but do not love money. Money can never create this kind of happiness. It has to come from something deeper within and around you.
Surfing is my money! 
A Zig-Zag Day Ends With A Big Yawn As Late-Day Weakness Sends All Indexes Lower
April 15, 2008 | Leave a Comment
Well, in all honesty trying to draw conclusions from a day like today is quite useless. In fact, anyone that spent any amount of time today trying to delve into the data to find something useful just spent a whole day wasting time. Today was simply a low volume pullback and nothing-more and nothing-less. I believe, without even looking, that this was the dullest day of trading for 2008.
By the end nothing exciting happened except all the indexes were mildly lower. Too bad that was not the case for my biggest holdings. Shockingly, the past few days, the few charts that are starting to look “near-perfect” (meaning they still have time and the technicals still need work) are all acting the worst. On Friday my biggest holding was my worst holding prompting me to sell 25% and then today two of the five stocks that reside in my IRA now need to be cut. This is simply something I have never! experienced in twelve years. You can clearly see, by going over my ‘past big winners’ on the .com site that from 2000 to the 2002 lows I still about ten stocks make significant gains from beautiful chart patterns. Those same exact patterns are NO WHERE to be found right now and when they do start to form they seem to be targeted immediately.
This has prompted one emailer to wonder if the style has been “figured” out. LOL. To that I say it is simply IMPOSSIBLE. Do you know how many stocks are out there? Do you know how many different ways and reasons people have to trade? Do you know how many people REFUSE to buy stocks breaking out to new highs? Do you know how many people do not know how to buy new highs correctly (ie, they buy too late or too extended or after a heavy volume pullback)? Do you know how many people do NOT use telecharts thus making BOP completely irrelevant? Do you know how many people can not tell you what a cup with handle is that LIVE on the trading floor (I know, I once went around taking a quiz and I also asked could it come from a downtrend and uptrend. So many said no the first question and if they did say yes they then said it did not matter where it formed)? The fact is that this system is out of style, FOR NOW, but it will not be long before it comes back.
Stocks End Mixed On Lower Volume, As A Big Merger Rumor Helps Lift Stocks Off Their Lows.
January 27, 2007 | Leave a Comment
Stocks started the day off very strong but soon started selling off, after strong durable goods orders, strong new-home sales, and bond yields ticking higher sent signals to traders that the Fed would not be cutting rates any time soon. Thankfully, a rumor of Bank of America and Countrywide Financial merging and more positive earnings helped lift stocks well off their lows. Read more
Today Was The Exact Opposite Of Yesterday, As The Market Stages One Ugly Reversal; Mixed Volume Leaves Things A Bit Ambiguous.
January 26, 2007 | Leave a Comment
After such a nice day yesterday, where the Nasdaq bounces right off its 50 dma, the last thing you want to see is an immediate reversal; well that is what we got. Stocks almost gave back all of yesterdays gains in the Nasdaq and gave all of the gains back in the SP 500 and DJIA on a report on existing-home sales. This along with a weak response to the 5-year note auction helped slam stocks. Read more
