Stocks Stage a Nice Rally in Front of Earnings Season
July 13, 2009 | Comments Off
Overseas markets took a dive early Monday morning setting a negative tone for the market from the onset. Wall Street has been anticipating earnings for quite some time and Monday was the official kick off to the 2nd Quarter earnings season. Early morning volume selling was met by volume buying, the v-shaped recovery from the morning’s lows had put into question whether or not the market wanted to make a run for higher ground. A buying frenzy was taking place about mid-morning with the lunch hour into 2 o’clock time frame saw stocks holding gains. It wasn’t until the end of the day where you saw stocks push up into the high of the day and close there on volume. Monday’s action moved this market into a confirmed uptrend and we should continue to see higher equity prices.
After the July 7th market session I made it clear stocks were in correction mode, where we begin to look for stocks to make a bottom and attempt at another rally. You can read it here. Price and volume action alone was concerning and the market was correcting. However, the very next day as stocks made new lows they were able to make a steady recovery with volume. Looking at hourly volume on the NASDAQ you could see the selling was done on much lower volume during the same time periods the day before. This suggested that shorts were pounding stocks. July 8th kicked off Day 1 of an attempted rally and I was hoping for quieter days ahead. We got just that, quiet days on Thursday and Friday on extremely light volume, although not ideal, but it is what we got. Today marked the 4th day of an attempted rally where we look for the indexes to make strong moves percentage wise on higher volume than the day before. Monday’s market saw just that, take a look at this NASDAQ chart:
The Second Quarter Ends with a Thud as Indexes Notch a Day of Distribution
June 30, 2009 | Comments Off
The second quarter ended in bleak fashion as institutional investors were busy selling holdings. A drop in consumer confidence didn’t help stocks as higher oil prices and economic uncertainity were major factors for the drop. There wasn’t many places to hide on Tuesday, except for leading stocks. The NYSE indexes suffered heavy volume selling throughout much of the day only to see late day support. Over on the NASDAQ volume was subdued for much of the day until the last 5 minutes when a rush of volume hit the NASDAQ. Quarter end window dressing was nowhere to be found on Tuesday. With the quarter end behind the market and earnings season upon us it’ll be important to see the market see some accumulation.
As it stands now the Dow Jones Industrial average is leading the way with 5 distribution days. Although 5 is a high number the Dow is a lagging index and its distribution days are minor not major ones. The S&P 500 has seen 4 distribution days but like the Dow its distribution days are minor. What I am focused on is the leading index which happens to be the NASDAQ and it only has 2 days worth of distribution. Remember, it is quite normal to see distribution show its face when the market has made an uptrend. We’ll need to see the big institutional players step up and begin operating on the long side buying up quality growth stocks.
Friday Produced Gains Greater Than The Whole Year Combined; Sometimes The Market Will Shake You Out. You Better Stay On Top Of Your Charts Or You Will Pay The Price.
June 28, 2009 | Comments Off
After Monday’s session it appeared the market was D.O.A. However, even though I cut losses in all stocks not showing me gains or cut back in stocks with gains that I had not taken any profits on, it doesn’t mean that I just go “dark.” Jesus Christ, you can’t do that in this market! What are some people thinking? Scary. Anyways, by Thursday, every single Platinum member, along with me, realized a MAJOR BULLISH REVERSAL occurred. Hence we had 20 new longs for Friday. 18 of the 20 were up. The two that were down, one is a full sell and one is a part sell and we will move those small losses into stocks that might setup like the next CHLN, CHBT, or ISTA for me. Even I messed up big this week. I went long heavy CHLN last Friday and by this Friday the position was up $30,000. The only problem. I sold it all Tuesday morning. Guess what? IT HAPPENS! Stop crying, I say, and wake up. By getting myself back in the game I did not miss all the CLEAR buy signals on Thursday and that led to some huge!!! gains like the excellent long in CHBT. That’s right everyone, my biggest CHINESE long of Friday was completely filled and a nice 56% one day gain was realized. Will I be taking profits? NOT ALL but obviously I will sell 50%. I have been doing this since 1996 for a living and think it is funny that people that do not do this for a living still try to think that they can be “smarter than the market.” Sadly, you are telling and making it clear to the world that you are not a smart person. A smart investor realizes the market is crazy and understands he can never turn his back on the market or else you end up selling and not buying back. By the way, my PAST BIG WINNERS that show my best stocks with the best patterns that were my biggest/best positions will show you quite a few times that those perfect charts gave us “buy signals” before the “perfect buy signal.” According to some “non-Platinum (I notice I never have problems with my Platinum guys…I wonder why???? Duh they have direct access to me)” members it is obviously a sin to sell a stock and buy it all back. Really? If you think that I am pretty sure you will NEVER hold a TASR your ENTIRE life. Stinking thinking like that is just sad and will not make you a winner in the stock market. Also realizing technical analysis is a windsock and not a crystal ball. A really wish some of my Silver/Free members would use more common sense and spend more time studying past big winners. I really do receive some HORRIBLE emails that my Platinum and Gold members WOULD NEVER send. Why? They are dialed in. I hope you all realize this site is for people that really want to do this for a living. Which is hard, by the way. I get it. Do you? I hope so or else you are going to have a DAMN HARD time making money in this market where our government has infiltrated. I will be posting my top returns when I finish my scans early Sunday. Check out my gains and tell me if the people you are following or if your own trading can hold itself up to the methodology that I use which involves NO EMOTIONS (unless I am dealing with newbie Silver members–rolling eyes). “Explain yourself.” I just did. Sheesh. Some of you guys need to learn some manners, also. Aloha from Maui where I am sure I had a much better weekend than most. Great surf, great scenery, and finally some HUGE profits from the stock market. Perfect harmony. Life is great and so are the gains coming from China. Zai jian and ALOHA!
32!!! New Long Positions And 18!!! Stocks I Am Adding To My Exising Long Positions For Monday’s Stock Market Session (THIS IS A NEW RECORD THAT EVEN SURPASES THE MOST LONGS IN ONE DAY SET IN 2003 [29])
Commodities and Technology Crumble Weakening Leadership and the Overall Market
June 22, 2009 | Comments Off
By Market Speculator
Once again Crude Oil took a major blow Monday as well as other commodity prices. The IMF revised its growth causing panic in the World Recovery thesis. Technology stocks also took a tumble Monday as investors were fleeing technology names. Stocks were simply sold today as sellers wanted to cut loose at all costs. Closing at the lows of the day is a signal that sellers are in full control. Leadership has been showing weakness for the past two weaks and is finally beginning to weaken further at an alarming rate. Very nasty action today on the indexes as the market is now in correction mode.
Big stock leadership is always a great barometer for the market. Big insitutional players love the liquidity and low beta these stocks have. The price and volume action of these stocks are very important because it displays the mentality of the big institutional player. We have seen the big stock leadership crack a bit last week but that crack widen today. Two big stocks that have performed well in this market uptrend put in very ugly days. Gold and Platinum subscribers are aware of the ones I am referring to as I posted in our forums about the stocks. This is not that time to be fighting the market trend here, do not be a hero.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average Slips with Crude Oil While the NASDAQ Remains the Leading Index
June 21, 2009 | Comments Off
by Market Speculator
Friday saw a quadriple witching day pushing volume well above Thursday’s level. The Dow Jones Industrial Average had slipped lower closing just short of a distribution day. Over on the NASDAQ, the composite index witness a day of accumulation. However, during the session the indexes were not able to hold the opening move. Sellers took over after the morning frenzy of option traders closing/rolling their positions. Only the NASDAQ was able to close above in its upper range for the day, but barely closing above its upper range. More importantly, leading stocks once again showed strength many of the leaders saw positive action. It is clear the NASDAQ is the leading major index and has positioned itself to continue it’s move higher.
We are certainly seeing a lot of positive action in leading stocks. There is also very nice action in a few big cap stocks. Institutions love playing large liquid stocks and we are certainly seeing the accumulation by the big boys. At Big Wave Trading, we are saying on top of these leading stocks and taking advantage of the gains they are showing us. Leadership is the number one factor to take a look at when reviewing the entire market. They will light the path the market will take.
Volume Eases Across the Board as NYSE Indexes Ended Higher
June 18, 2009 | Comments Off
by Market Speculator
Thursday’s stock market was quite a bore, even with the Philadelphia Fed reading came above the expected number. The reading showed contraction but far less than expected, suggesting things aren’t as bad as they may appear. Stocks took notice and jumped higher, but could not hold the highs. From the highs stocks bounced around in lackluster fashion. News from the treasury market still isn’t good the Treasury Department announced its largest ever auction. Bond prices fell as investors once again are fleeing the treasury market, not in fear of inflation but the massive amount of supply coming on the market. The market took little notice and continued its lackluster trade. Overall, the market was taking a breathier as options are set to expiry tomorrow.
On the positive side the NASDAQ was able to consolidate its gains from Wednesday’s session. On the other hand the S&P 500 rose on lighter volume suggesting buying action on the index wasn’t supported by institutional players. Remember, we need to see volume coming into stocks to show strength with a move higher. Without volume, the move quite possibly could turn out to be a headfake. Clearly the NASDAQ is much better behaved and the leading major index.
Banks Weigh on the S&P and Dow while The Nasdaq Enjoyed a Day of Gains
June 17, 2009 | Comments Off
By Market Speculator
Two banks, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs were able to repay the government but the move did little to assist the Banks as they weighed heavily on stocks. Late day selling knocked stocks off their highs across the board but the NASDAQ composite was able to hang onto decent gains. Volume was higher across the board as the NYSE indexes were able to escape a 3rd straight day of distribution. A positive sign from the day was the ability for the leaders to hold key moving averages rather than the selling they have been experiencing over the past few days. Over the next few days will be important for the market as it will foreshadow the type of market we’ll be experiencing.
It shouldn’t come as a surprise the market has found itself with a headwind. We are in our 14th week from an attempted rally and it is quite normal for mutual funds and other institutions to lock in profits. More than likely, what we’ll begin to see is the junk-off-the-bottom will begin to fade. A few things can occur: the market rolls over or the market begins another uptrend with quality growth stocks emerging as the leaders. Quality growth stocks are essential for an uptrend to have longevity. At the moment, the market certainly has run out of steam for the time being. We will need to see quality growth stocks as leadership otherwise we will roll back over.
Stocks Take Another Dose of Distribution While Leaders Continue to Send Mixed Signals
June 16, 2009 | Comments Off
by Market Speculator
For the second straight day in a row stocks were hit again with another day of distribution. The selling wasn’t as fierce as it could be as volume lagged behind Monday’s level for much of the morning. When selling took over it was then volume began to pick up the pace to surpass Monday’s level. Stock market leaders once again flashed mixed signals, but the more we see these leaders fall the more troublesome the market becomes. We did see two leading stocks perform well but there wasn’t enough upside leading stocks to outweigh the damage being down on the flip side. Leading stocks and the price and volume action are telling us this market looks to be choppy in nature in the trading days ahead.
The sloppy price action going on in the stock market leaders is not positive. Tight price action is a signal of strength while sloppy price patterns are a signal of weakness. The past few trading sessions we have seen very sloppy price and volume action from our leading stocks. It began last Wednesday when we saw our leading stocks begin to fail key moving average areas. Now, we have yet to see support come into these stocks to make a stand and show that they have the strength to move higher. Unless support comes in soon the leaders that are standing may not be for long.
A Late Day Surge Lifts Stocks by the Close of the Day as Volume Indicates Wall Street Started the Weekend Early
June 14, 2009 | Comments Off
by Market Speculator
In front of the market was elections in Iran and new threats being made by North Korea. Despite this potential negative news stocks were able to get a lift at the end of the day by a flury of buying. Much of the day volume had been tapering off much below Thursday’s level as stocks sank. Stocks didn’t much selling pressure to drive down prices. Showing institutions weren’t selling off their holdings in a hurry, a positive sign for this uptrend. On the downside, many leading stocks were hit hard throughout the day. The late day surge did cover up most of the damange done by the selling. Friday’s market session was an indication a market which is showing signs of basing.
A few leading stocks suffered damage, a few of them were not able to hold their 10dma. During powerful uptrends leading stocks will often find support at their 10dma and continue their march higher. The action seen on Friday is a more of an indication we are not quite ready to see leading stocks continue their march higher. Not all leading stocks suffered, many of them did find support at their 10dma. The ones that did not did find support at their 21dma and 50dma. Positive signs were all around the market Friday but they were in the price and volume action of the leading stocks.
Sellers Jump in Late to Knock Down Stocks from Their Highs but Hold Gains
June 11, 2009 | Comments Off
By Market Speculator
Late day selling brought the indexes back to their lows of the day settling just above them. Retail sales figures spooked traders sending the retail sector lower. On the other side, crude oil rose to $73 as the commodity continued its trek higher. Mounting pressures from rising yields as well as higher energy costs weighed heavily on the market overall. Leading stocks did not participate in the move higher marking a second straight day of underperformance. Volume came in just above Wednesday’s levels but was lower than its 50dma suggesting the past few sessions institutions have largely stayed on the sidelines. Taking a fifty thousand foot view of the market; we are still in an uptrend with not many distribution days and we should continue to see the uptrend hold.
The leading stocks took a step back on Thursday, taking a rest from recent gains. Although it would be ideal for the leading stocks to move higher every day it is simply impossible to do. At the moment, many of them sit above or on their 10dma an area of support. If the leading stocks can hold these moving averages it’ll be a sign of strength and something we will continue to pay close attention to.
