Bullish Week Ends With Leading Stocks And The SOX Taking The Lead; The IBD 100 Finishes Up 4.2% And The SOX Finishes Up 5.8% This Week, Clearly Showing Us Where The New Leadership Is
May 17, 2008 | 1 Comment
There is really only one word to describe Friday’s intraday action: bullish. Right off the bat, thanks to a report showing the University of Michigan consumer confidence number fell below 60 to a 28-year low, the Nasdaq fell 1.2% within the first two hours. This selling was pretty nasty but still the report should not have shocked the informed investors who saw the IBD/TIPP poll hit an all-time low last month. I am sure we can expect more of the same come Tuesday when the new data is released. Thankfully, for the bulls, cooler heads prevailed and quickly the consumer confidence news was taken as old news and shaken off.
By the end of the day, it was an impressive turnaround on all the indexes, as everything closed near their HOD. The leading index was the NYSE which scored a .5% gain. The SP 500 also was up today, gaining .1%. On the other end, the Nassy lost .2% and the DJIA lost .1% but both still closed near their HOD. Considering the losses that all the indexes had going after the first two hours there is no other way to call today anything but a victory for the bulls.
Bears Can Not Follow-Through On Yesterday’s Weak Close; SOX Index Leads The Market Higher As Technology Stocks Come Back To Life
May 16, 2008 | 5 Comments
I had another rough day today but this time it was on the financial end. I have been receiving a ton of 0% to 3% interest rate offers recently from my various Credit Card companies. Everything has always worked out well as I max out the balance, move it to my stock market accounts, get an excellent return on my money, and then return the cash back before the APR moves back up. This has ALWAYS worked well.
However, today I learned the horrible ignorance of some offers. Luckily, this one is the only one like this, but my 2.99% special offer and regular 9.99% rate, due to the mail NEVER SHOWING UP IN MY MAILBOX, has been JACKED UP TO 29.99%!!! I have been a customer since 1999 and this is Bank Of Amerca’s way of saying thank you for NEVER having a late payment. It seems even if it is the mail carriers fault, if you miss a payment, your rates on EVERYTHING goes to the highest possible and it take six-months to reverse. So now instead of a nice steady payoff, I have to take the full amount out of my stock accounts and pay the whole damn balance off as I refuse to pay 30% interest rate!! This completely ruined my day only because I get great margin rates AND NOW is the time you want to be putting that money to work. So today has gone completely wrong and therefore I am going to bullet point my talking points as I have no interest in writing a full commentary tonight. I wrote too much in the longs analysis anyways. Paying subscribers can get there fill there.
-the NYSE short interest ratio has hit another all-time high of 13.63. It now almost takes 14 days to cover all the shorts. WOW!
A Very Bullish Start Ends With Most Indexes Closing At Or Near Their LOD; My Best Stocks Held Up Well During The Selling
May 15, 2008 | 2 Comments
Well, that sure is not how you like to close them. Especially with volume picking up there while we sold off right after hitting the 200 day moving average on the Nasdaq. The good news is that the market still gapped high enough in the morning that all major market indexes were able to close with gains. But there was a negative blip in regards to leading stocks as the IBD 100 fell 1.2%.
Thankfully, even though volume ticked slightly higher on the Nasdaq, the NYSE had volume come in 1% lower on the reversal. To go along with that the volume was below average on the NYSE for the 38th straight session, volume was barely above the 50 DMA on the Nasdaq. With the volume being higher and prices being higher that would still be bullish despite the reversal. The volume simply was not full of conviction in the form of huge clear distribution. I guess you could count 4/1 as average daily volume on the NYSE, by the way, but still it wasn’t above average so I guess the point still stands.
Overall, the market is in the same situation as it was last week. We are rallying on lower volume with this clearly being a stock picker’s market. The good news, for me is that is what I specialize at.
Nasdaq Leads Impressive Day Of Gains On Slightly Higher Volume That Is STILL Well Below Average; NYSE Slowest Day Since December 27, 2007
May 13, 2008 | Leave a Comment
I don’t know what I can say about this market that has not already been said. I find it very difficult to BS about the market when there is nothing to BS about. But I will give it a shot.
I do not like seeing the IBD 100 lag the Nassy on a day of such strong gains. The other thing I do not like seeing is the impressive gains on much lower volume with the NYSE having its lowest day of volume this year. This is a clear sign the big boys have no interest in buying this market. However, as you can tell via my recent longs, there are a few stocks they are still interested in buying. That is why this is still a stock pickers market and thank GOD I can pick them!
Until volume returns to this market, there is no way I am going to let go of 25-33% of my cash. I am going to continue to keep that on the sidelines while I wait for another perfect long setup like the stock that had a good day today. If another chart can show up like that, I would be more than happy to drop that cash position. But still with the low volume, it is hard to get 400% invested on margin.
Leading Stocks Take The Lead Once Again As Oil&Gas Stocks Produce Massive Gains; 79% Think We Are In A Recession And That Makes Me Bullish!
May 6, 2008 | 2 Comments
It was another overall lower volume session as the NYSE, for the 32nd day in-a-row, came in with volume below the 50 day volume average once again. However, underneath the bullish mini-reversal that sent the Nasdaq from a .8% loss to a .8% gain, there was a TON of bullish action in stocks in a wide range of industries.
When the day started off, it sure did not seem like the good times were going to continue as more bad news rolled in from so many areas that it seemed the market was due for a rest. June oil climbed $1.87 to close at $121.84 and hit an HOD of $122.73. This definitely sent some fear in the market, on top of the UBS negative banking report, the FNM and FRE announcement, and then going back to oil GS predicting it to hit $200. However, proving that markets climb a wall of worry, indexes were able to shake all of this nonsense off and most indexes closed near their HOD with every index but the DJIA up .8% (the DJIA was up .4%).
The best news was not the higher volume than the day before, either. No, the best news, once again, was the dramatic and dynamic leadership of the IBD leading indexes. The IBD 85-85 came in with a heavier volume 1.3% gain. Leading stocks continue a pattern that started about a month ago with them making moving lower on the down days and now rising higher on the up days. This pattern has really started to develop recently and appears to be continuing that path for a little while long, at least.
Bullish Week Ends With Mixed Trading On The Major Market Indexes; Individual Stocks Are Starting To Look Real Good
May 3, 2008 | Leave a Comment
It was another overall boring session to end the week but despite the overall boring tone to Friday’s session it was still a bullish session underneath as many stocks had solid sessions and many stocks that I was long had a very positive session. Overall, profit taking was quite mild in the AM and the strong mid-day rally into the close shows the bears are still not in control.
This kind of action on a do nothing day is just what I like to see in a market that refuses to do much. If there would have been a lot of blowups and negative action today, then I would have been a lot less enthusiastic about the non-event that Friday was.
By the close, the NYSE was up .6%, the SP 500 was up .3%, and the DJIA was flat. The Nasdaq finished lower but the intraday support and positive action by the close is something that has to be considered positive overall. I mean obviously if this market was real weak they would have sold them into the close.
Bullish Intraday Reversal For Second Day In-A-Row Has Stock Indexes Closing Near The HOD (And Is The Reason Why You Should Not Panic Sell And Watch Stocks Intraday); Leading Stocks And Semiconductor Stocks Take Charge Which Is Just What You Want To See During A Rally
April 26, 2008 | Leave a Comment
I am not sure how strong and long this commentary is going to be as I have been surfing some giant waves and have been spending the past two days at the beach most of the day watching the surfing contest at Ho’okipa amongst the HS ripping groms. These kids paddle out into 10 foot face POWERFUL HEAVY waves and charge like it is nobody’s business. All of these kids surfing today were experienced but if any of them would have been newbies THEY WOULD HAVE BEEN KILLED as the waves were way too much for most mortals. These amazing kids not only surfed these waves but a lot of them now need to go spend an extra $300 to $800 for new boards as I saw at least seven surfboards break in-half! Yes the waves were that big.
What is the point of that. The point is that the windy, rough, and scary conditions were almost too much to hold a contest and the fact they did today was pretty dangerous. I take the conditions to at Ho’okipa and see a correlation to this recent market. The only exception is that the big waves do not relate to big gains and big trends but are like the volatility and lack of follow-through in this market. This market is not a market for newbies. Newbies paddling out into 10 ft. waves that are wind blown and AS ROUGH AS CAN BE is a disaster waiting to happen.
I Started Talking About The Parabolic Runs In Chemical-Fertilizer Stocks A Week Ago And Today They Confirmed The Analysis; Is Their A Possible Rotation Into Technology Stocks?
April 24, 2008 | Leave a Comment
What a weird session! Finally, something interesting to talk about. And by interesting I mean that all the chemical-fertilizer stocks that I have been listing as “parabolic charts” in my forums the past week have finally sold off on very heavy volume. I am not sure if this is the ultimate top but we are very blessed to have an excellent futures trader amongst are midst and he has been screaming to short the commodities the pat few days. Now, while those selloff, finally, the stocks start to catch up. I hope this is the top to the commodities, but something tells me this will probably be just another short term adjustment.
Either way, it really doesn’t matter to me. I have taken my 400% and 500% gain from TNH and MOS back in 2006-2007 a long time ago and I am just waiting for these things to top so that I may try to take a piece of the pie back when they head back to earth where all stocks belong after a climax run.
Stocks Close Higher On A Pickup In Volume; Volume Still WELL Below Average And Charts Are Still Very Sloppy
April 15, 2008 | Leave a Comment
It was another wild day on Maui as more drama occurred in my personal life today. However, it is minor and it has been taken care of so hopefully I can get back to doing what I am supposed to be doing instead of wasting my time on other things.
Anyways, luckily for me it was just more of the same junk that we have seen the past 17 sessions as volume is still well below average and the charts still look junky. What makes it worse, is that the few good charts we had building have gone away. Not all but still it is not good.
That is unless you are focused in one area and one area only. Oil. Oil hit $114 yesterday and closed at $113.79 which is a new all-time high. I have a feeling we are going to be saying that a lot. Especially when I look at oil stocks and see that they account for almost ALL of the stock market’s strength.
There were only 90 new 52-week highs yesterday to a very large 222 new lows but what stuck out to me is that out of the 90 new highs 58!! of them were in the energy sector. That is a whopping total, especially considering that the next most came from agriculture stocks as they had 6 new highs in the group. Obviously, the oil&gas and energy sectors are the only two places to be in this market, unless you are in soft commodities/ag. There simply is no where else to go.
Stocks Close Near Their LOD But Lack Of Volume Indicates There Is Still No Distribution Since The 11/28 Follow-Through; IBD 100 And 85-85 Finish In The Green
December 3, 2007 | 4 Comments
Stock indexes started the day off in a nice steady slow trend higher. But around 1PM on the east coast, stocks decided to put in their highs and subsequently sold off the rest of the trading session closing near their lows. I saw some talking heads indicate that we have seen the top and saw others say that they were more bearish than at any other time since 2000. However, RIGHT NOW, I don’t see it, because I follow the general trend of the market and right now the trend is up.
As long as the 11/21 lows in the IBD 100 and IBD 85-85 hold, I have to remain with this bullish bias. Even though this might sound funny to some of the perma-bears who are for sure this market is going to rollover–which I believe it will too (just not as much as people like Doug Kass)–the market is currently in the middle of a confirmed rally and during confirmed rallies HISTORY has proven that it is smarter to be long than trying to short.
The time to short is when these low volume rallies hit resistance and then start to selloff on higher volume. When they selloff and fail at a key resistance point or moving average, that is when it is safe to short. Shorting stocks that are just breaking down below support is ALWAYS a sure lead to the poor house.
