Stocks Close Near Their LOD But Lack Of Volume Indicates There Is Still No Distribution Since The 11/28 Follow-Through; IBD 100 And 85-85 Finish In The Green
December 3, 2007 | 2 Comments
Stock indexes started the day off in a nice steady slow trend higher. But around 1PM on the east coast, stocks decided to put in their highs and subsequently sold off the rest of the trading session closing near their lows. I saw some talking heads indicate that we have seen the top and saw others say that they were more bearish than at any other time since 2000. However, RIGHT NOW, I don’t see it, because I follow the general trend of the market and right now the trend is up.
As long as the 11/21 lows in the IBD 100 and IBD 85-85 hold, I have to remain with this bullish bias. Even though this might sound funny to some of the perma-bears who are for sure this market is going to rollover–which I believe it will too (just not as much as people like Doug Kass)–the market is currently in the middle of a confirmed rally and during confirmed rallies HISTORY has proven that it is smarter to be long than trying to short.
The time to short is when these low volume rallies hit resistance and then start to selloff on higher volume. When they selloff and fail at a key resistance point or moving average, that is when it is safe to short. Shorting stocks that are just breaking down below support is ALWAYS a sure lead to the poor house.
IBD 100 And IBD 85-85 Are Officially In A “Confirmed Rally”; Excellent Price Action Today Signals Bulls Have Indeed Regained Control Of The Market On The Short-Term
November 29, 2007 | Leave a Comment
The one thing this market should be teaching everyone right now, no matter if you are new or experienced is that it is always silly and stupid to marry either the bullish or bearish side. What we are seeing right now is a stock market that is going to do its best to make sure every single trader out there who is either a perma-bull or a perma-bear gets washed out by the wild (nothing compared to 2000-2002) crazy market.
I am seeing some traders starting to show signs of major fatigue which is a good thing for seasoned traders since the turning points usually come when everyone gives up. However, this time things are a bit different. We just put in what appeared to be–once again, for the third time–a real top in the market. This time, unlike the other two times earlier this year, the selling got every leader, including the horseman, and this time the only sectors that were escaping were only the sectors that do well in bearish markets. Medical, Drug, Biotech, Consumer non-durable, Defense, Food, Beverage, and Telco stocks have all been doing well but they haven’t been doing nearly as well compared to the good shorts in the weakest sectors.
Those big gains on the short side seemed to be confirming the topping market. However, something has happened that needs to force us to put our bearish mode on hold. If you have not taken profits or cut your shorts that have not been working already, well shame on you. You should have done that by now. I have told you over and over to NOT short oversold markets and to not short a rallying market until AFTER we hit resistance. So if you have been shorting heavy the past three days, shame on you.
Stocks End Mixed On Heavy Volume; Churning?
January 9, 2007 | Leave a Comment
On a day where a strong IBD/TIPP poll shows that investors are gaining confidence and AAPL releases the new iPhone and Apple TV, stocks decided to churn one in today. The only exciting action came in the SP 600 which turned a 1.1% loss into a gain by the end of the day.
