A very Boring Session Ends With The Market Higher But On Lower Volume
May 23, 2008 | 3 Comments
Today’s market really did not have anything meaningful within it to focus on today. But what can be said about today’s rally is that it came on lower volume which is not what you like to see after a distribution day. However, it is good news that out of all of my longs, even though I had plenty where profits need to be taken, there was not a single one that needed to be completely cut for breaking the original thesis of the trade.
Without anything happening today that changes anything in the markets, I think it would be a waste of my time and yours if I put a bunch of junk up here that was just words to fill up a page. Kind of like most of the stock market commentary I read out there. There sure are a lot of long-winded people like me out there. Anyways, if you are at least a silver subscriber you have plenty to read on the new silver longs/shorts sections as I have typed out a few important notes over there.
For those that will still be here on Friday (a lot of our chat members have already checked out), I hope you enjoy trying to stay awake. Because that will more than likely be the call of duty for us tomorrow. I would not be surprised if volume is near the lowest or actually is the lowest day of the year and if we can move more than .5% up or down I will be floored.
Another Perfect Day For Our Longs, Especially Our “PERFECT” Long; Never Short A Dull Market
May 12, 2008 | Leave a Comment
So far things are looking good and unless we close at the LOD and wipe out all of the gains I will be very happy. My charts continue to look well as some of my largest positions (9 of them) are up HUGE today making today a great day after two days in the country/jungle. what a great way to start the week. The only thing I will be watching closely is the close and volume. I want volume higher by the EOD and I want us to close strong or if not strong to make it a perfect day, at least not at the LOD.
Also another lesson of NEVER chasing is today in GENC. I have been taking profits on the way up and if you have been following all my sells in the forums you will see that I was already out of 40% of it before today’s decline. Even after the swoon today, we still have a gain in it. Also, do not sell it intraday. The chances are much higher with it being down this much that it will have a strong rally before the EOD. Even if it doesn’t, it doesn’t matter, the stock is a full sell and we still walk away with a profit on the full 100% with me already being out of nearly-half when the stock was between a30% and 60% gain.
Our leaders are doing well and remember if you own a stock up 20% or more in less than two weeks (which we have had a few quick monsters), you need to hold them at LEAST eight weeks.
Bullish Intraday Reversal For Second Day In-A-Row Has Stock Indexes Closing Near The HOD (And Is The Reason Why You Should Not Panic Sell And Watch Stocks Intraday); Leading Stocks And Semiconductor Stocks Take Charge Which Is Just What You Want To See During A Rally
April 26, 2008 | Leave a Comment
I am not sure how strong and long this commentary is going to be as I have been surfing some giant waves and have been spending the past two days at the beach most of the day watching the surfing contest at Ho’okipa amongst the HS ripping groms. These kids paddle out into 10 foot face POWERFUL HEAVY waves and charge like it is nobody’s business. All of these kids surfing today were experienced but if any of them would have been newbies THEY WOULD HAVE BEEN KILLED as the waves were way too much for most mortals. These amazing kids not only surfed these waves but a lot of them now need to go spend an extra $300 to $800 for new boards as I saw at least seven surfboards break in-half! Yes the waves were that big.
What is the point of that. The point is that the windy, rough, and scary conditions were almost too much to hold a contest and the fact they did today was pretty dangerous. I take the conditions to at Ho’okipa and see a correlation to this recent market. The only exception is that the big waves do not relate to big gains and big trends but are like the volatility and lack of follow-through in this market. This market is not a market for newbies. Newbies paddling out into 10 ft. waves that are wind blown and AS ROUGH AS CAN BE is a disaster waiting to happen.
Do You Have That Feeling That We Might Not Have Put In The Ultimate Bottom?
April 22, 2008 | 1 Comment
Today was not that bad, overall, minus a few stocks that were completely earnings related. However, the fact that volume did in fact pick up is still none-the-less technically a distribution day. Still with volume well below the 50 day volume average, it sure is hard to get too bearish over a day like this. But at the exact same time, it sure is hard to get really bullish here when I see so many potential nice charts start to setup only to not make it.
The higher volume selling that hit the market today was the second below-average volume distribution day in a couple of weeks. While long-term this is nothing serious, on the short-term a few more days of this could put a monkey-wrench into this rally. Right now, as it stands, though, I would not be too worried about these two days since the put/call raises to such high levels on these kind of days. If the crowd was getting more complacent, I might be a little worried that the selling might pick up.
But the fact volume remains low and the fact that almost zero stocks have shown up the past two weeks as strong short candidates is a clear tell that this isn’t a market you necessarily want to be short…or long really.
Problematic Follow-Through Day Is Not All It Appears To Be; We Have Gone NOWHERE In Two Months, Proving Cash Is King!
March 21, 2008 | 13 Comments
A lot of people have recently just gotten used to being in cash as the bear market has finally convinced some that the best side is the sidelines. But as soon as a lot of these people realize it is best to park their cash, all of a sudden we have the market following-through on its rally that started eight days ago on 3/11. That is when the DJIA made its lows, reversing off of them and closing higher at the HOD by the EOD. While every index undercut those lows on 3/17, the DJIA did not and instead held. This has now led to today’s 2.16% rally on very strong volume. A weekly chart of the DJIA since 3/11 is very bullish. However, when we take a step back and look at where the index is coming from, it isn’t that impressive yet.
But it is important to pay attention to the market right now as things are lining up for at least a powerful short-term rally. When we look at the put/call ratio we can see that on a huge up day that it jumped to 1.12 which is a very high level of fear on such a bullish day. That tells me that market players expect this market to move lower on the short-term. Too bad these guys are almost always wrong. Therefore, the extremely bearish bets on such a strong day is a bullish item short-term.
Stocks Revert Back To Old Ways; A Day Of Back And Forth Meaningless Trading Ends With Stocks Slightly Higher On Lower Volume
April 5, 2007 | Leave a Comment
Stocks went back to their old ways of not doing much intraday but boring us to death, after a few important economic numbers hit the wires. The ISM service index fell to 52.4 in March from 54.3 in February. Expectations were for 54.7, so obviously this was not good news. The prices paid index rose to 63.3 in March from 53.8 in February, indicating inflation is still very real. Also, according to the Census Bureau’s factory orders, orders fell 1% in February after being down 5.7% in January. These numbers, overall, were very weak and not bullish. However, the market managed to put in more gains despite these poor economic numbers. Read more
Stocks End The Day Mixed But Flat From Friday, After A Wild And Volatile Session.
January 29, 2007 | Leave a Comment
Stocks ended mixed, after a wild day of trading, as traders positioned themselves ahead of the Fed meeting. To me, it just showed that the bulls and bears are both being very stubborn here and are evenly matched.
At the close, the SP 600 was up .4%, the Nassy finished up .2%, the DJIA ticked higher by .03%, and the SP 500 diverged closing with a .1% loss. The IBD 100 finished up .4%, keeping pace with the SP 600.
Volume was lower on the Nasdaq and higher on the NYSE. The higher volume on the NYSE does not make today a distribution day because the index was not down .2%.
Read more
Stocks End Mixed On Lower Volume, As A Big Merger Rumor Helps Lift Stocks Off Their Lows.
January 27, 2007 | Leave a Comment
Stocks started the day off very strong but soon started selling off, after strong durable goods orders, strong new-home sales, and bond yields ticking higher sent signals to traders that the Fed would not be cutting rates any time soon. Thankfully, a rumor of Bank of America and Countrywide Financial merging and more positive earnings helped lift stocks well off their lows. Read more
Stocks Stage WILD Reversal, Keeping Traders As Confused As Ever.
January 3, 2007 | Leave a Comment
What a way to start off the New Year! Today, stocks showed us all why it is silly to have convictions. After gapping up very strong this morning on the back of some strong manufacturing data, stocks continued to rally. However, after the FOMC minutes were released, stocks did the exact opposite and reversed into negative territory. Thankfully, for the bulls, stocks found solid support at 3pm and rallied into the close, giving the DJIA and Nasdaq a positive close.
