Market Opens Lower on AAPL and Earnings news
July 22, 2008 | Leave a Comment
Once again AAPL beats estimates but is conservative with its estimates. We’ve seen this song and dance with AAPL since the early 2000s where the company guides conservatively only to beat those estimates next quarter. Monday night’s release showed that playing earnings can be very dangerous. Use history, more importantly use CAN SLIM developed by William O’Neil. He has taught us that the big money is made during fresh bull markets. Unfortunately, we do not have a new bull market…yet! Time to continue studying Josh’s past big winners, cash heavy, and keep our losses small!
Aloha
Big Cap Technology Stocks Hold Back Stock Gains
July 19, 2008 | Leave a Comment
After the bell Thursday MSFT and GOOG missed expectations sending both stocks lower after hours. Come Friday little had changed as these two gigantic technology stocks weighed heavily on the NASDAQ. AAPL joined the fun and ended lower on slightly higher volume. Options expiry failed to inspire volume to rise, it certainly gave the impression traders were simply not around for the trading session. Stocks finished off their lows on lower trade and was a quiet day overall for the entire market.
At Big Wave Trading, we feel this market is not our new bull market. With that said, we are finding some stocks that are setting up nicely and starting to present opportunities to make money. In the grand scheme of things we aren’t in an environment where we are going to grab our 1000%+ winners. Therefore, we are keeping our cash levels high and, new trades small, taking profits quickly, and (THE MOST IMPORTANT THING) cutting our losses (keeping them small).
We continue to see market pundits believe we have bottomed in financials. However, this was stated back in September ‘07, Jan. ‘08, March ‘08, and again now. When will we bottom? Here at Big Wave Trading we only care when we know our new bull market is here. At the moment the VIX, VXN, NH to NL ratio, and lack of a follow through day tell us we are not there yet. The real big tell is that we are not seeing as many stocks come through our market scan as we would normally see in a bull market. Stocks simply aren’t ready to make a giant leap forward. Until they do, we’ll be cash heavy read to pounce on the new opportunities.
Gamblers Need Not Apply
July 19, 2008 | Leave a Comment
I am in the belief that we have not seen our ultimate lows in the market. We have not seen the type of capitulation selling you typically see at the market’s lows. VIX and VXN continue to show the lack of fear in the market to show a real turn in market direction. If you are a gambler, step away from the market. This market is one for the birds and will present little (slim odds) upside potential. Gamblers will look to place abnormal risky bets using far too much capital placing them at risk to be wiped out. When the market is presenting such small odds for winning trades it is best you step aside and let it self work out.
The worse trait to have as a trader/investor is the gambler mentality. All the greatest speculators in the world knew how to cut their losses and avoid trendless/bear markets. Our current bear market is one that should be avoided all together. IBD research has shown that Monster Stock gains arrive when we are at the beginning of a new bull market. Why not use this research to our advantage and get a large cash position. We can still find some stocks that are setting up nicely in a bear market but our odds are not as great as if it were a bull. The key is to take profits a bit more quickly in bear markets and make sure you keep your losses small! Not only will you see gains in your trading but you’ll be well capitalized for the next Bull Market!
I Am Having A Great Day Today…But What If I Wouldn’t Have….
December 13, 2007 | Leave a Comment
Remember, ASYS was NEVER a big position. In fact it was very minor, except for my one day order entry mistake, and until I saw someone just now mention it in a chat room I wouldn’t have even known it was destroyed by looking at the total returns in my accounts today. This is an important lesson on making sure that you ALWAYS trade your plan and that you never deviate away from it, even when you are feeling horrible over a stupid mistake.
[2007.12.13 09:12:29] MauiTrader: OMG you know why you cut your losses?
[2007.12.13 09:12:33] MauiTrader: ASYS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
[2007.12.13 09:12:36] MauiTrader: the mistake i made
[2007.12.13 09:12:40] MauiTrader: had i NOT fixed it immediately
[2007.12.13 09:12:44] MauiTrader: would have cost me everything
[2007.12.13 09:12:51] MauiTrader: i would be on 4 to 1 margin broke!!!!
[2007.12.13 09:13:01] MauiTrader: or even 21 to 1 would have been badly hurt
[2007.12.13 09:13:06] MauiTrader: wow
[2007.12.13 09:13:08] MauiTrader: amazing
[2007.12.13 09:13:18] MauiTrader: i ams till long ASYS from
[2007.12.13 09:13:41] MauiTrader: August
[2007.12.13 09:13:45] MauiTrader: i think or July
[2007.12.13 09:13:46] MauiTrader: not sure
[2007.12.13 09:14:01] Mahket: so much for this little rally lasting
[2007.12.13 09:14:04] Mahket: poof
[2007.12.13 09:14:06] MauiTrader: August
[2007.12.13 09:14:11] MauiTrader: i went long in August
[2007.12.13 09:14:19] MauiTrader: the next day i sold 75% due to gap down
[2007.12.13 09:14:27] MauiTrader: but held 25% due to it holding 50 dma
[2007.12.13 09:14:35] MauiTrader: i bought more in early Dec
[2007.12.13 09:14:42] MauiTrader: then again when i made my mistake
[2007.12.13 09:14:48] MauiTrader: then i sold all of the last buy
[2007.12.13 09:15:01] MauiTrader: and over half of the early Dec buy on that nasty 12/11 day
[2007.12.13 09:15:04] MauiTrader: but had I not
[2007.12.13 09:15:16] MauiTrader: and i seen it on 12/12 and noticed it held 50 dma
[2007.12.13 09:15:19] MauiTrader: and would have hoped
[2007.12.13 09:15:26] MauiTrader: since it held and bop went green again
[2007.12.13 09:15:30] MauiTrader: maybe i dont sell any
[2007.12.13 09:15:32] MauiTrader: then today
[2007.12.13 09:15:41] MauiTrader: i would have had one of the worst days of my life
[2007.12.13 09:15:45] MauiTrader: had i stuck with my mistake
[2007.12.13 09:15:49] MauiTrader: instead i fixed it
[2007.12.13 09:15:51] MauiTrader: and walla
[2007.12.13 09:15:54] MauiTrader: i saved my ass
[2007.12.13 09:15:59] MauiTrader: THIS IS WHY YOU CUT LOSSES ALL THE TIME
[2007.12.13 09:16:04] Troy: I tried to print a posting in the forum and some of the word on the printed version run off the page. Is there a way to get a printer friendly version of the postings?
[2007.12.13 09:16:07] MauiTrader: ESPECIALLY IN ACCIDENTLE BIG POSITIONS
[2007.12.13 09:16:20] MauiTrader: ask nictech in a PM
[2007.12.13 09:16:26] MauiTrader: send nictech a message
[2007.12.13 09:16:29] MauiTrader: he is the tech guy
[2007.12.13 09:16:36] MauiTrader: doesn’t anyone find that amazing
[2007.12.13 09:16:44] MauiTrader: you guys should be learning something major here
[2007.12.13 09:16:46] MauiTrader: BY CUTTING LOSSES
[2007.12.13 09:16:52] MauiTrader: AND FIXING A HUGE ERROR
[2007.12.13 09:16:52] MauiTrader: IMMEDIATELY
[2007.12.13 09:17:01] MauiTrader: AND NOT STICKING WITH THE WRONG MOVE AND INCORRECT GAME PLAN
[2007.12.13 09:17:05] MauiTrader: I JUST SAVED MY ASS
[2007.12.13 09:17:11] MauiTrader: !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
[2007.12.13 09:18:15] Aloha! You are in the MauiTrader’s Lounge
[2007.12.13 09:18:15] MauiTrader has entered the room “MauiTrader’s Lounge”
[2007.12.13 09:18:18] MauiTrader: WTF!!!!!!
[2007.12.13 09:18:21] MauiTrader: ANYWAYS
[2007.12.13 09:18:29] MauiTrader: I JSUT SAVEDD MY ASS A LOT OF HEARTACKE
[2007.12.13 09:18:33] MauiTrader: AMAZING
[2007.12.13 09:18:37] MauiTrader: ASYS IS DOWN 30%
[2007.12.13 09:18:43] MauiTrader: WHICH IS 60% ON MARGIN
[2007.12.13 09:18:51] MauiTrader: AND 120% ON IB MARGIN
[2007.12.13 09:19:07] MauiTrader: WHICH WOULD HAVE KILLED OVER 30% OF MY ACCOUNTS
[2007.12.13 09:19:32] MauiTrader: SO BY CUTTING MY LOSSES AND GETTING THE HELL OU TOF DODGE
[2007.12.13 09:19:42] MauiTrader: INSTEAD I HAD NO CLUE THIS NOW POS STOCK HAD ANY DAMAGE
[2007.12.13 09:19:49] MauiTrader: BECAUSE MY SHORTS ARE ROCKING
[2007.12.13 09:20:17] MauiTrader: IMAGINE IF I WOULD NOT HAVE TAKEN THOSE SHORTS AFTER THAT BAD DAY; IMAGINE IF I AM SO DEPRESSED I DONT TAKE THESE SHORTS OR SELL MY ASYS
[2007.12.13 09:20:22] MauiTrader: NOT ONLY DO I LOSE MONEY ON ASYS
[2007.12.13 09:20:29] MauiTrader: I LOSE MONEY BY NOT MAKING MONEY IN THE SHORTS
[2007.12.13 09:20:36] MauiTrader: THIS IS REALLY AN AMAZING LESSON TO BE LEARNED
[2007.12.13 09:20:55] MauiTrader: AND THAT NO ONE IS AROUND (9 PEOPLE ARE HERE BUT NO ONE SAID ANYTHING ABOUT THIS) IS BAD
[2007.12.13 09:21:00] MauiTrader: I HOPE YOU ALL READ THIS LATER 
[2007.12.13 09:21:08] MauiTrader: ACTUALLY I AM GOING TO POST THIS ON THE BLOG
[2007.12.13 09:21:10] MauiTrader:
Today Was The Exact Opposite Of Yesterday, As The Market Stages One Ugly Reversal; Mixed Volume Leaves Things A Bit Ambiguous.
January 26, 2007 | Leave a Comment
After such a nice day yesterday, where the Nasdaq bounces right off its 50 dma, the last thing you want to see is an immediate reversal; well that is what we got. Stocks almost gave back all of yesterdays gains in the Nasdaq and gave all of the gains back in the SP 500 and DJIA on a report on existing-home sales. This along with a weak response to the 5-year note auction helped slam stocks. Read more
Happy New Year!; Markets Produce A Distribution Day On The Last Trading Day Of 2006.
December 30, 2006 | Leave a Comment
Happy New Year!; Markets Produce A Distribution Day On The Last Trading Day Of 2006.
THIS IS THE VERY LAST FREE “DAILY MARKET ANALYSIS and NEW SWING LONGS/SHORTS” POST ON THIS BLOG.
On the very last trading day of the year, stocks decided to end the year on a slightly nasty note, offering distribution days across the board. There was no news catalyst on this Friday the last trading day of 2006. The only possible reason for the selling that was floating around the street was the fact that traders might not want to be long over the long weekend. My question is: wouldn’t they also not want to be short? Oh well.
