Dow Follows Through; Issues Remain
March 21, 2008 | 1 Comment
IBD has called Day 8 of the Dow Jones Industrial average a follow-through day for the market. This ultimately confirms the most recent rally attempt. It takes only one index to follow through to confirm a market rally regardless if any other index takes out its most recent low.
I am not as bullish in the short-term has Joshua however, I do believe we could see a rally. Ultimately, I do believe that this rally will fail at some point in the near future. New Highs are not turning around, New Lows continue to dominate and the number of stocks above their 200dma continues to be lower than stocks over their 20dma and 50dma. Ideally, you want to see more stocks above their 200dma. This would suggest that a long-term uptrend is in place.
Although we are in a confirmed market rally, there still remains the high risk of this rally failing. Cash is King and longs should be kept small.
Brokers and Mortgage Lenders Dominate Trading
March 19, 2008 | Leave a Comment
Are you excited that the group leading Tuesday trade was the beaten down stocks? Oh yeah, the leadership we do not WANT.
Volume and VIX continue to show that we may not have seen our ultimate lows. The drop in the VIX yesterday tells me the willingness for the market participants to believe we have bottomed. This is very dangerous and toss in a lower volume massive rally. It only spells trouble for those who throw their eggs into this market’s basket.
The Easter Bunny is not always so nice.
Market Speculator
Possible Stagflation?; Stocks Lose Ground On Higher Volume, Giving The Market Its Second Distribution Day
April 12, 2007 | Leave a Comment
Stocks started the day weak on the back of data from the NAR announcing that they expected existing home sales to fall in 2007-the first drop in 38 yrs-and also see lower existing and new home sales in the short term. That combined with higher gas prices weighed on stocks early. But once again the dip buyers showed up and started to bid stocks higher. That was until the Fed March meeting minutes came out at 2pm. That promptly sent stocks to new lows on the day before they received a minor bid into the close. Read more
Stocks Rally Again And Close Near Their HOD, On Stronger Volume; Volume Well Below The 50 Day Volume Average
April 11, 2007 | Leave a Comment
Stocks performed the same way as they have been recently, with the markets gapping up, selling off, and then finding dip-buyers to help bring them off their lows and sending them near their highs by the close. All of this happened despite a very healthy amount of bad news from the housing and mortgage industry. Almost half of my links that I received today involved stories about the housing and lending markets. However, stocks digested the data and did what they have been doing recently rallying the rest of the day. Read more
Stocks Revert Back To Old Ways; A Day Of Back And Forth Meaningless Trading Ends With Stocks Slightly Higher On Lower Volume
April 5, 2007 | Leave a Comment
Stocks went back to their old ways of not doing much intraday but boring us to death, after a few important economic numbers hit the wires. The ISM service index fell to 52.4 in March from 54.3 in February. Expectations were for 54.7, so obviously this was not good news. The prices paid index rose to 63.3 in March from 53.8 in February, indicating inflation is still very real. Also, according to the Census Bureau’s factory orders, orders fell 1% in February after being down 5.7% in January. These numbers, overall, were very weak and not bullish. However, the market managed to put in more gains despite these poor economic numbers. Read more
Bullish Intraday Reversal, Helps Stocks Avoid Another Possible Ugly Day; Stock Indexes Close Higher On Lower Volume
March 29, 2007 | Leave a Comment
A bullish Q4 GDP final revision higher to 2.5% from 2.2%, along with jobless claims falling for the fourth week in a row, helped start stocks off on a very bullish foot before the opening bell. But soon after the opening bell, stocks trended lower all day until a strong late afternoon rally sent stocks up into the closing bell with the SP 500 even closing near its HOD. This reversal in the face of rising oil to six-month highs of over $66 a barrel and gasoline future to eight month highs at $2.1355, due to the tension between Iran and the free-world, has to be considered very impressive. Read more
Stock Indexes Close Lower On Higher Volume, Producing The First Distribution Day Since The Follow-Through On Wednesday; Is This Rally Done Already?
March 29, 2007 | Leave a Comment
Stocks turned tail Wednesday and for the second day in a row dip-buyers did not show up as stocks moved lower, with an intraday roller-coaster ride mid-day after a speech by Ben to a Congressional panel, closing near the lows of the day. Things got off to a bad start, after the February durable good came out below expectations of a 3.5% gain with an actual 2.5% gain. That might have been bad but the ex-transportation numbers hitting YOY growth lows not seen since 2003 and capital goods coming in 1.2% lower and at lows not seen since 2004 were probably what really gave traders a scare. On top of that, add oil hitting six-month highs of $68 after-hours and settling in at $64.08 after weekly inventories were announced falling by 900k, comments by Ben that inflation is still a worry, and the tensions between Britain and Iran over the naval incident and you have plenty of reasons for stocks to go lower; and lower they went. Read more
Stocks Reverse Intraday Losses, With Most Indexes Closing Higher On A Slight Uptick In Volume; Housing Market Continues To Swoon
March 26, 2007 | Leave a Comment
Stocks started the day pretty drift-less the first half hour, but soon the excitement started. After a report on new-homes sales falling 3.9% to 848k in February to new seven year lows (June 2000), a report on the months supply of homes on the market rising to 8.1 months which is a 16 yr high (January 1991), and a revision of new-home sales being lowered in November, December, and January, stocks were slammed. On top of that, Citigroup announced plans to cut 15k jobs and take a $1 billion charge to earnings, and oil rose to over $63 a barrel, closing at $63.30. Despite all of this, after the selling was over in the morning, stocks rose the rest of the day closing near their highs. This was a very positive bullish intraday reversal. Read more
A Boring Day Of Trading Ends With Stocks Mixed On Lower Volume; Best Week For Stocks In Six Months
March 24, 2007 | Leave a Comment
A boring, erratic, and overall lame session came to end Friday, after a week of surprises on many fronts. The only thing not boring today was the post-1pm EST action in the Nasdaq; up, wedge up, down, wedge down, and up. Still, that only led to a flat close. Today’s headlines were much more subdued than the previous four days, but we still had some important numbers to digest. Existing-home sales were up 3.9% in February to an annualized 6.69 million. That was the fastest growth since April and above economist estimates. This was a welcome report, after all the thrashing we received last month. The other news item making its way around was the 15 British sailors and marines that were captured by Iranian kidnappers. However, as expected, this was not market moving news. Read more
Stocks Rally For Second Straight Day, On Lower To Flat Volume; Funds Still Have No Interest In This Market
March 20, 2007 | Leave a Comment
It was another day of light gains, for the stock market. However, today, had a bit more of a steady bullish bias to it, unlike yesterday, as big-cap indexes closed near their HOD. The good news for stocks came on the back of a better-than-expected housing starts number for February. That number was up 9% for the month, which is much better than the 14% drop in January. The bad news, in that mix, came from building permits as they fell again by 2.5%. The other positives effecting stocks was M & A activity. The news that CYTC is making a full bid for ADZA and that PALM might receive a bid for its business might have had a positive impact on stocks. Read more
