I Do Not Like The Selling After All These Nice Charts Have Set Up
May 7, 2008 | 5 Comments
Where are the mutual funds that are hoarding cash? If these guys do not step in and start buying stocks and we continue to have to rely on the shorts to cover higher to produce a rally, my faith in this rally is going to start to fall real fast.
I refuse to get as bearish as the crowd and I have been expecting a pullback but seriously if volume continues this below average pace, I just don’t see how in the heck this can turn into a long-lasting bull market.
So if you want to be a raging bull, go ahead. I still remain cautious but would love to get EXTREMELY long here as the charts are starting to round out. However, selling here after these nice charts started showing up would be very bad. Maybe this is why my short scans have been active, like I have been talking about on the ‘Silver Shorts’ area.
Hopefully, the elephants will return soon, or else those mice that are keeping them away will start to scare me soon.
Leading Stocks Take The Lead Once Again As Oil&Gas Stocks Produce Massive Gains; 79% Think We Are In A Recession And That Makes Me Bullish!
May 6, 2008 | 2 Comments
It was another overall lower volume session as the NYSE, for the 32nd day in-a-row, came in with volume below the 50 day volume average once again. However, underneath the bullish mini-reversal that sent the Nasdaq from a .8% loss to a .8% gain, there was a TON of bullish action in stocks in a wide range of industries.
When the day started off, it sure did not seem like the good times were going to continue as more bad news rolled in from so many areas that it seemed the market was due for a rest. June oil climbed $1.87 to close at $121.84 and hit an HOD of $122.73. This definitely sent some fear in the market, on top of the UBS negative banking report, the FNM and FRE announcement, and then going back to oil GS predicting it to hit $200. However, proving that markets climb a wall of worry, indexes were able to shake all of this nonsense off and most indexes closed near their HOD with every index but the DJIA up .8% (the DJIA was up .4%).
The best news was not the higher volume than the day before, either. No, the best news, once again, was the dramatic and dynamic leadership of the IBD leading indexes. The IBD 85-85 came in with a heavier volume 1.3% gain. Leading stocks continue a pattern that started about a month ago with them making moving lower on the down days and now rising higher on the up days. This pattern has really started to develop recently and appears to be continuing that path for a little while long, at least.
Leading Stocks Outperform On A Dull Trading Day; NYSE Pulls Back On Lowest Volume Of The Year
May 5, 2008 | Leave a Comment
It was yet another very low volume market session that really proved nothing today that we did not already know about this market. The one bright spot that occurred today that was noticeable to me by the action in the stocks that were showing up on my price/volume scans. The IBD 100 gained a very impressive 1.5% compared to the overall market which was slightly lower across the board. The IBD 100 also joined the rest of the market with A and B acc/dis ratings as it now sports a B- after today’s action.
However, the losses from the NYSE to the Nasdaq were all fine in my book as all the selling came with volume lower than the day before. What is even more bullish for stocks, for now, is that the low volume selloff was the lowest volume for the year on the NYSE. This low volume, with stocks pulling back, is just how you want to see stocks move. If you look at the Nasdaq, where it is most obvious, you can clearly see that the market is rising on higher volume and selling off on lower volume. This has been the case since March 4th and is starting to become visually quite obvious to me. That along with the actual ACC/DIS being an A- shows that this index and the stocks that make up this index are being accumulated.
Even though the accumulation is not on HUGE volume it is taking place none-the-less and as long as that is the case there is not reason to fight this trend. There are so many things that have turned in the favor of this market that I just don’t see it wise to be very bearish here. Even the ISM service, new orders, and employment indexes all moved over 50 which signals expansion. The price paid index is back up to 72.1. Take that along with the data that we are NOT in a recession and the positive slope to the yield curve and I find it hard to be as bearish as some are on this market.
Breakouts And Nice Round Bases Are Everywhere While Commodity Stocks Look Extremely Toppy
May 1, 2008 | Leave a Comment
I see nice round bases everywhere in EVERY long scan and CANSLIM scan that I run. Stocks like our HA long from 3/27/08 is already up 60% and MA from 8/2/06 is up almost 500% since then and now we have a lot of pretty green BOP filled charts starting to round out and complete bases. If they make handles, two or three-week tight bases, or another base on base, this market should be heading MUCH higher. Everywhere I look I see good chart patterns. Now if only I could get volume on the NYSE. But did you see the Nassy? Another BIG DAY OF GAINS ON HIGHER VOLUME. That is now five days of above average volume since 4/17. Only one was lower and it has seen a very bullish response today with even higher volume and much larger price gains.
Volume is starting to come back, my existing longs are now starting to put in some real strong gains, and bases are forming everywhere. This is definitely a market I want to be long. If we fail and reverse, it would be the NASTIEST reversal ever because this is how stocks should be acting before a powerful rally and a reversal of this super-bullish action would be in one word: NASTY!
Extremely Quiet Day Of Trading And A Big South Swell Equals Not Much To Talk About
April 30, 2008 | 3 Comments
The market did not do much of anything today as we all bide time ahead of the release of Q1 GDP and the FOMC interest rate decision. About the only market moving news today was the talk of V and MA earnings. Both of those stocks produced excellent action today in their respective security, with MA now giving me a 450% return in a little under two years. This is a very nice long-term capital gains. Even though the position is no longer huge, at least I still have some of it and can enjoy the Monster Stock that I own.
However, since the times that this stock broke out, it has been very hard to hold onto any past big winners for huge gains as the stock market is simply not in the right mood to help produce some huge returns. A VIX at 20 will do that! As long as this VIX stays down here and the market moves on lower volume, that is just more time that you can be sure we will have to wait before making any serious gains. When volume is well above average and the VIX is above 40 then I can wake up to some potential huge gains. Until then, we are GOING TO HAVE TO take what we are given. Rather we like it or not. Thank God I have other hobbies.
I am extremely tired today as I surfed some of the biggest waves I have ever surfed on the south shore today. I almost broke my board a few times and I could not even go to the “best” spots because there were too many people and sadly I am not good enough to get in a line-up full of semi-pros to pros and then actually get waves. Instead I will have to enjoy my time on “lesser exposed” breaks and instead watch the best of the best rip it up.
BWT.net Re-opens Comments
April 28, 2008 | 5 Comments
Hey everyone,
The decision has been made to reopen commenting here at BWT.net. We don’t want to let a few bad apples spoil it for the whole lot. We’re going to be heavily moderating comment’s so don’t even bother sending along any negative crap. If you disagree with something Joshua says you can 1st go look at the past big winners and see all the gains he made that you missed out on, and 2nd go start your own blog and build a following of people who want to lose money listening to someone who doesn’t know 1/2 as much about the market as Joshua Hayes. I look forward to seeing everyone’s good questions and positive comments.
You can’t be living the island lifestyle and have time to be surrounded by negative people.
Bullish Intraday Reversal For Second Day In-A-Row Has Stock Indexes Closing Near The HOD (And Is The Reason Why You Should Not Panic Sell And Watch Stocks Intraday); Leading Stocks And Semiconductor Stocks Take Charge Which Is Just What You Want To See During A Rally
April 26, 2008 | Leave a Comment
I am not sure how strong and long this commentary is going to be as I have been surfing some giant waves and have been spending the past two days at the beach most of the day watching the surfing contest at Ho’okipa amongst the HS ripping groms. These kids paddle out into 10 foot face POWERFUL HEAVY waves and charge like it is nobody’s business. All of these kids surfing today were experienced but if any of them would have been newbies THEY WOULD HAVE BEEN KILLED as the waves were way too much for most mortals. These amazing kids not only surfed these waves but a lot of them now need to go spend an extra $300 to $800 for new boards as I saw at least seven surfboards break in-half! Yes the waves were that big.
What is the point of that. The point is that the windy, rough, and scary conditions were almost too much to hold a contest and the fact they did today was pretty dangerous. I take the conditions to at Ho’okipa and see a correlation to this recent market. The only exception is that the big waves do not relate to big gains and big trends but are like the volatility and lack of follow-through in this market. This market is not a market for newbies. Newbies paddling out into 10 ft. waves that are wind blown and AS ROUGH AS CAN BE is a disaster waiting to happen.
Nasdaq Leads The Way Higher On Slightly Higher Volume As Semiconductor Stocks Account For Much Of The Gains; AAPL Disappoints
April 24, 2008 | Leave a Comment
It was another typical day that we have seen recently where not a lot gets accomplished and we pretty much just give back whatever happened the day before in the opposite direction. Still, I do believe, that today’s gains coming with higher volume is a positive overall. And if you look at your Nasdaq daily chart, you will see that pattern show up a lot the past month (lower volume selling, higher volume rally). That is the reason the Nasdaq carries an ACC/DIS rating of A- which makes it the most heavily accumulated index out there.
Today, however, that was minor compared to the SOX’s 4% powerful rally that saw shares of BRCM leap today on huge volume. I am starting to believe that what I COULD be seeing is a rotation from commodity stocks (which don’t appear to be done yet at all) into technology stocks. That can best be viewed by taking a look at your daily SOX chart for 2008. As you can see we have a ton of excellent price action to go along with all that support right in the 340 to 350 zone. The move in the SOX today gets it ever closer to being able to take back and claim its 200 DMA. Tech stocks led in 9900 and big-cap tech did well in 2003 also. However, since then it has been all commodities but if the parabolic runs I am seeing in POT MOS AGU FEED etc…I will continue to monitor those stocks for a blowoff top and watch Semi/Tech stocks for more breakouts or possible bottoms.
I HATE calling bottoms while a stock market is falling and I hate saying a stock has bottomed until after the fact it looks bottomed. When I look at the stocks in the Semi index, I can honestly say, that I am starting to get that “feel-good” feeling in my body where I think that we are just moments away from launching a big rally. However, anything can happen in this market and I promise you that INDEED ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN. EVEN THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE this market is going to resolve itself to the upside via some tech stocks trying to regain a strong uptrend. But once again, though I feel good and it appears eventually the SOX can take off and run, anything can happen and that is why I am prepared for anything and everything. Up, down, sideways, or a halt. I have my game plan ready to go!!
Do You Have That Feeling That We Might Not Have Put In The Ultimate Bottom?
April 22, 2008 | 1 Comment
Today was not that bad, overall, minus a few stocks that were completely earnings related. However, the fact that volume did in fact pick up is still none-the-less technically a distribution day. Still with volume well below the 50 day volume average, it sure is hard to get too bearish over a day like this. But at the exact same time, it sure is hard to get really bullish here when I see so many potential nice charts start to setup only to not make it.
The higher volume selling that hit the market today was the second below-average volume distribution day in a couple of weeks. While long-term this is nothing serious, on the short-term a few more days of this could put a monkey-wrench into this rally. Right now, as it stands, though, I would not be too worried about these two days since the put/call raises to such high levels on these kind of days. If the crowd was getting more complacent, I might be a little worried that the selling might pick up.
But the fact volume remains low and the fact that almost zero stocks have shown up the past two weeks as strong short candidates is a clear tell that this isn’t a market you necessarily want to be short…or long really.
Another Quiet Day Of Consolidating The Gains; Lower Volume After A Day Of Solid Gains Is What I Like To See!
April 21, 2008 | Leave a Comment
It was another great day overall for those that are long the stocks we are long (well at least until AH when one got a gnarly ride) as the market took its time drifting around today before a strong close that saw the market basically end where it started. That is except for the SP 600 which fell .7% and the IBD 100, which is loaded full of leading stocks with great fundamentals and strong price action, which rose 1.2%. The 1.2% gain by leading stocks is very impressive during a day where the indexes basically closed flat to slightly lower. This is yet another clear sing that despite the lack of any volume out there, shorting a dull market is not a very smart idea.
Some of the bullish data points on today’s session includes the new highs which once again beat the new lows. This time it was 164 to 97. Not a killing but still good enough. As long as I continue to see new highs beating new lows on this list I will continue to enjoy the uptrend even if it continues on with small volume. The put/call also rose today to .81 from .77, despite the IBD 100’s 1.2% rally. This has to be taken as a slightly bullish development considering that more people bought puts (meaning they became more bearish) despite the market rallying. This is probably because those put buyers were more focused on the SP 500 and SP 600. Too bad they were, some stocks that we are long like WSCI are showing why that is such a bad idea
