Nasdaq Leads The Way Higher On Slightly Higher Volume As Semiconductor Stocks Account For Much Of The Gains; AAPL Disappoints
April 24, 2008 | Leave a Comment
It was another typical day that we have seen recently where not a lot gets accomplished and we pretty much just give back whatever happened the day before in the opposite direction. Still, I do believe, that today’s gains coming with higher volume is a positive overall. And if you look at your Nasdaq daily chart, you will see that pattern show up a lot the past month (lower volume selling, higher volume rally). That is the reason the Nasdaq carries an ACC/DIS rating of A- which makes it the most heavily accumulated index out there.
Today, however, that was minor compared to the SOX’s 4% powerful rally that saw shares of BRCM leap today on huge volume. I am starting to believe that what I COULD be seeing is a rotation from commodity stocks (which don’t appear to be done yet at all) into technology stocks. That can best be viewed by taking a look at your daily SOX chart for 2008. As you can see we have a ton of excellent price action to go along with all that support right in the 340 to 350 zone. The move in the SOX today gets it ever closer to being able to take back and claim its 200 DMA. Tech stocks led in 9900 and big-cap tech did well in 2003 also. However, since then it has been all commodities but if the parabolic runs I am seeing in POT MOS AGU FEED etc…I will continue to monitor those stocks for a blowoff top and watch Semi/Tech stocks for more breakouts or possible bottoms.
I HATE calling bottoms while a stock market is falling and I hate saying a stock has bottomed until after the fact it looks bottomed. When I look at the stocks in the Semi index, I can honestly say, that I am starting to get that “feel-good” feeling in my body where I think that we are just moments away from launching a big rally. However, anything can happen in this market and I promise you that INDEED ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN. EVEN THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE this market is going to resolve itself to the upside via some tech stocks trying to regain a strong uptrend. But once again, though I feel good and it appears eventually the SOX can take off and run, anything can happen and that is why I am prepared for anything and everything. Up, down, sideways, or a halt. I have my game plan ready to go!!
Another Quiet Day Of Consolidating The Gains; Lower Volume After A Day Of Solid Gains Is What I Like To See!
April 21, 2008 | Leave a Comment
It was another great day overall for those that are long the stocks we are long (well at least until AH when one got a gnarly ride) as the market took its time drifting around today before a strong close that saw the market basically end where it started. That is except for the SP 600 which fell .7% and the IBD 100, which is loaded full of leading stocks with great fundamentals and strong price action, which rose 1.2%. The 1.2% gain by leading stocks is very impressive during a day where the indexes basically closed flat to slightly lower. This is yet another clear sing that despite the lack of any volume out there, shorting a dull market is not a very smart idea.
Some of the bullish data points on today’s session includes the new highs which once again beat the new lows. This time it was 164 to 97. Not a killing but still good enough. As long as I continue to see new highs beating new lows on this list I will continue to enjoy the uptrend even if it continues on with small volume. The put/call also rose today to .81 from .77, despite the IBD 100’s 1.2% rally. This has to be taken as a slightly bullish development considering that more people bought puts (meaning they became more bearish) despite the market rallying. This is probably because those put buyers were more focused on the SP 500 and SP 600. Too bad they were, some stocks that we are long like WSCI are showing why that is such a bad idea
Stocks Reverse Hard Selling Off All Session Into The Close, Closing Near The LOD; Lower Volume Eases Selling Pressure But Some Leaders Selloff On Higher Volume
March 29, 2008 | 2 Comments
The morning got off to a good start as the indexes gapped higher and started off strong right out of the gate, with the Nasdaq leading the way higher with a 1% gain. After that, sadly for the bulls, it was nothing but a slightly choppy ride lower with the market selling off the entire way lower with the 1% gain in the Nassy turning into a .9% loss by the EOD. The DJIA closed near the session lows for the second straight session. This was not a bullish session, to say the least.
Despite the losses, there was one bit of good news that can be taken away from this session and that is that volume was lower across the board. In fact, Friday’s volume was the lowest turnover of 2008 and shows that institutional investors who make up over 75% of the volume in the stock market were not active at all. Still, you can’t get too excited about low volume pullbacks when they come after low volume rallies.
We did have one heavy volume rally on 3/20 when the DJIA had its follow-through day. However, since then we have been left with nothing but low volume volatile-intraday sessions that have left us at the same point we were at right before the two bullish days on 1/22 and 1/23. This is not good as it is not normal to see a market have a FTD and then not put out any big winners that are working right away or have any follow-through days to the follow-through day.
Where Did All The Volume Go?; Huge Rally With Weak Close And Low Volume Is Not Bullish For The Market Long-Term
March 24, 2008 | Leave a Comment
It was beyond a great day for the stock market, once again, for the second day in-a-row, as the Nasdaq led the way higher with a 3% gain that had many market participants jumping for joy. Too bad all that jumping for joy was not celebrated alongside large institutional investors who decided to stay away from the market today as I guess they did not want to be part of the short-covering rally. And with volume coming in well below the 50 day volume average you can be sure that that is exactly what we saw today. It was just your usual bull bounce in an overall bearish market environment.
That bounce was given credit due to JPM buying BSC for $10 a share instead of $2. This whole thing sounds crooked to me and I will just leave the action in BSC to that. But, this news was given credit, on top of some good existing-home sales data, for today’s gains. Well, you know what news would have been better with today’s 3% gain? NO NEWS. It is a huge rally on large volume that comes with no news and a lot of stocks breaking out that gets me more exciting than any other news headline I could possibly see. It almost gets me as excited as the bottom callers who call a constant bottom in this market, are wrong 5 times before they are right once, and then when they get a tiny bounce dance in the streets that all is well.
I forgot what it was like to be involved in a stock market where price action is so rough yet so many “traders” can’t stand still and keep trading their pants off like it was a rip-roaring bull market. But here I am in one again for the first time since 2000-2002. It is incredible how not even ten years can go by and yet we have still forgotten all the lessons we should have learned there. The bottoms callers today sound just like the bottom callers then. They are so sure this is a bottom that the put/call has fallen to .80.
Immediate Distribution Day On The NYSE And SP-500 Proves Bottom Callers Are Going To Be Wrong AGAIN; Now That They Have Hit The Current/New Leaders (Gold, Oil, and Chemicals) This Could Get Real Ugly
March 19, 2008 | 7 Comments
Wow is about all I have to say today after watching the market’s action. And the wow does not refer to the price reversal on the major market indexes. The wow has to deal with the action today in the top four leading industry groups in the IBD industry groups. They were simply rocked! Not only did they selloff hard, they did it on low volume. When the leaders are treated like this you can guarantee that there are some major problems stirring underneath.
Today quite a unique event happened today in the market that I have not seen the entire downtrend. And, imo, this is not good. The last time I saw this was in late 2000. That is when the bear market gained steamed and sent stocks much lower. Well, today, the chemical-fertilizer, metal ore-gold/silver, steel-producers, and oil&gas - US expl prod all fell between 5.9% and 6.9% which is just shocking. To see leading stocks in this really rough market get treated like this is the last thing from bullish as it can be. Only a politician could spin this as bullish.
5 out of the top 9 worst performers were in the top 10 industry groups. This is not how a market should act. Not only should the leaders be from more innovative areas of the economy, they shouldn’t be selling off when they are up there. If the weak stocks are getting CRUSHED (BSC TMA C etc..) and the strong stocks are getting crushed (GTU AUY BVN XEC EOG etc…) where is there to hide? The answer is no where. Only is cash or bonds the safe place to be. It is simply not a market any of the greatest traders today or of all-time would mess with.
Watching The Intraday Rally
March 18, 2008 | Leave a Comment
As I sit and watch this about all I can think of is how the 5 400 pt. up days on the DJIA ALL!!! failed. And that the nine best days on the Nasdaq all occurred during the 2000-2002 bear market NOT!!! the 2003 bull market. So while you watch the rally today on NO VOLUME, remember, you JUST SAW THIS seven days ago! How did that turn out? Where is the volume? And why did the market gap higher and not allow anyone to get long in the morning? Ah all the signs of a bear market bounce. If it feels painful, it is a bear market bounce. The time to start buying will come when the crowd sees a big 3% gain on higher volume and tells me “it’s going to fail.”
DJIA Leads The Way As BSC Rocks The Stock Market On Mixed Volume; How Can This Be A Bottom Without A HUGE Surge In Volume On the Nasdaq And NYSE? It Can’t Be!
March 17, 2008 | 2 Comments
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Stocks gapped lower after a horrible announcement by JPM that they bought BSC for $2 a share. Now, while I don’t want to gloat on this, I just want to say that for the 100th time in my life I have warned a bunch of traders to not buy a certain stock and yet they still do it. There was one reader from Santa Barbara from RealMoney.com that attacked me 8 days ago for telling him BSC was a POS. Well here we are from $75 to $4 and yet still no apology. No, thank you. No, I am sorry. Just a big pile of nothing. From Eugj to BHCO to Gerard to WillPS to SCO to Geoffrey from Santa Barbara: all of these characters have called me out and told me that I did not know what they were doing and EVERY SINGLE TIME THEY WERE PROVEN WRONG AND EVERY SINGLE TIME I DIDN’T RECEIVE A SINGLE I AM SORRY OR THANK YOU. Is this what our world has come to? 
Oh well, there is no doubt I have become a sensitive character in my old age and things like this bugs me now. I just don’t know how yet to act when it comes to responding to jackoffs that make themselves out to be major idiots. I guess I will learn to ignore it in the future. The exact same way I ignore going long any stock below the 50 day moving average or go short stocks above the 50 DMA.
SP 500 And Nasdaq Pullback In A Calm Fashion On Lower Volume, While The DJIA And IBD Indexes Continue To Rally; Where Is The Volume And Where Are The New Leading Stocks?
December 7, 2007 | 5 Comments
Overall, it was a pretty choppy and inconsistent day on Friday, but it was still a good day when we take it and consider that we continue to hold well in the face of all the bad news from the subprime area of the economy.
I heard many complain that we did not finish higher today on the Nasdaq. I, however, disagree with them and find it more bullish that we finished a tad lower. That shows me that we are consolidating the gains, since the November 28th follow-through day from the IBD indexes, quite well. If we would have sold off today on heavier volume, then I wouldn’t consider the days action bullish. But the fact the we sold off a little and the volume was lower is exactly how you want to see the market pullback after adding on some solid gains.
Don’t forget that the DJIA finished higher, even though volume was extremely low, and that the IBD 100 and IBD 85-85 indexes finished higher. The big caps and leading stocks seemed to hold up well on a day of profit taking. So the people that were not happy with the Nasdaq do not have to look too far to find some other positives in the market.
CROX Helps Stock Indexes Gap Lower As They Continue To Selloff To The LOD at the EOD On Higher Volume
November 1, 2007 | Leave a Comment
Stocks gapped lower thanks to a negative sentiment off the CROX swoon and the expectations that the Fed had no reason to cut rates anymore. This seemed to weigh on the market and many stocks took very large hits. The worst was that the market according to my charting software sold off on higher volume marking a distribution day for the Nasdaq and the NYSE, SP 500.
The good news about the selling is that most of the wide selection of my current holdings had very normal pullbacks. Some did so on higher volume and I did have quite a few partial sells. But still less than 10 stocks were complete sells signaling that it wasn’t horrible. Even the recent longs I have taken are holding up, though they are not racing higher like they should be. It is still better than selling off, which most did not. Overall, this has to be taken as a slight positive. If it was really that bad, trust me, I would have had to have dumped around 10-20 stocks.
It was around 7-to-1 decliners over advancers on the NYSE which had a kind of severe selling feel to it. This horrible breadth is normally seen at the end of a decline. Not the start. 25-to-6 was the ratio on the Nasdaq, which confirms the wide margin on the NYSE. This along with the put/call racing up to .94 on this decline has the feel that the majority of the selling is in the books.
Possible Stagflation?; Stocks Lose Ground On Higher Volume, Giving The Market Its Second Distribution Day
April 12, 2007 | Leave a Comment
Stocks started the day weak on the back of data from the NAR announcing that they expected existing home sales to fall in 2007-the first drop in 38 yrs-and also see lower existing and new home sales in the short term. That combined with higher gas prices weighed on stocks early. But once again the dip buyers showed up and started to bid stocks higher. That was until the Fed March meeting minutes came out at 2pm. That promptly sent stocks to new lows on the day before they received a minor bid into the close. Read more
