Breakouts And Nice Round Bases Are Everywhere While Commodity Stocks Look Extremely Toppy
May 1, 2008 | Leave a Comment
I see nice round bases everywhere in EVERY long scan and CANSLIM scan that I run. Stocks like our HA long from 3/27/08 is already up 60% and MA from 8/2/06 is up almost 500% since then and now we have a lot of pretty green BOP filled charts starting to round out and complete bases. If they make handles, two or three-week tight bases, or another base on base, this market should be heading MUCH higher. Everywhere I look I see good chart patterns. Now if only I could get volume on the NYSE. But did you see the Nassy? Another BIG DAY OF GAINS ON HIGHER VOLUME. That is now five days of above average volume since 4/17. Only one was lower and it has seen a very bullish response today with even higher volume and much larger price gains.
Volume is starting to come back, my existing longs are now starting to put in some real strong gains, and bases are forming everywhere. This is definitely a market I want to be long. If we fail and reverse, it would be the NASTIEST reversal ever because this is how stocks should be acting before a powerful rally and a reversal of this super-bullish action would be in one word: NASTY!
Notes For Monday’s Stock Market Session
April 27, 2008 | Leave a Comment
-The IBD 100 is up 228.5% compared to SP 500’s 49.5% since 4/18/08
-IBD 85-85 and IBD 100 were down for the week (-.9% compared to Nassy .8%) but they were up over 2.5% on Friday compared to Nassy down .2%.
-This appears to be rotation of some sorts out of commodities into some new sectors
-Internet-Network Solutions up 9% this week
-Computer Software-Design up 5% this week
-These industries however are being led by the usual laggards BIDU and AAPL.
-Strongest Semi stocks: PMCS MCRL VLTR FSLR CRUS JASO SMTX POWI IVAC JST LSCC SMTC AXYS
-Impressive food stocks: FDP SDA — I am long both
-Nasdaq has an A for acc/dis NYSE B SP 500 B+ IBD 85-85 C+
I Started Talking About The Parabolic Runs In Chemical-Fertilizer Stocks A Week Ago And Today They Confirmed The Analysis; Is Their A Possible Rotation Into Technology Stocks?
April 24, 2008 | Leave a Comment
What a weird session! Finally, something interesting to talk about. And by interesting I mean that all the chemical-fertilizer stocks that I have been listing as “parabolic charts” in my forums the past week have finally sold off on very heavy volume. I am not sure if this is the ultimate top but we are very blessed to have an excellent futures trader amongst are midst and he has been screaming to short the commodities the pat few days. Now, while those selloff, finally, the stocks start to catch up. I hope this is the top to the commodities, but something tells me this will probably be just another short term adjustment.
Either way, it really doesn’t matter to me. I have taken my 400% and 500% gain from TNH and MOS back in 2006-2007 a long time ago and I am just waiting for these things to top so that I may try to take a piece of the pie back when they head back to earth where all stocks belong after a climax run.
Another Quiet Day Of Consolidating The Gains; Lower Volume After A Day Of Solid Gains Is What I Like To See!
April 21, 2008 | Leave a Comment
It was another great day overall for those that are long the stocks we are long (well at least until AH when one got a gnarly ride) as the market took its time drifting around today before a strong close that saw the market basically end where it started. That is except for the SP 600 which fell .7% and the IBD 100, which is loaded full of leading stocks with great fundamentals and strong price action, which rose 1.2%. The 1.2% gain by leading stocks is very impressive during a day where the indexes basically closed flat to slightly lower. This is yet another clear sing that despite the lack of any volume out there, shorting a dull market is not a very smart idea.
Some of the bullish data points on today’s session includes the new highs which once again beat the new lows. This time it was 164 to 97. Not a killing but still good enough. As long as I continue to see new highs beating new lows on this list I will continue to enjoy the uptrend even if it continues on with small volume. The put/call also rose today to .81 from .77, despite the IBD 100’s 1.2% rally. This has to be taken as a slightly bullish development considering that more people bought puts (meaning they became more bearish) despite the market rallying. This is probably because those put buyers were more focused on the SP 500 and SP 600. Too bad they were, some stocks that we are long like WSCI are showing why that is such a bad idea
What Has Changed? Nothing
March 18, 2008 | 1 Comment
Do I have a few nice longs in my scans? Yes. But these longs are of stocks that I am already long and even though it is really nice to be able to add to some winners that you are long, I am still wondering where the perfect charts are? Oh well. I am long 49 great stocks and they all had a great day today including two that DEFINITELY needed to be added to.
But where is the volume on this huge move? Didn’t we just go through this seven days ago. This is so silly and remember those that brag that they caught this bottom are doing so after missing the other 6 bottoms that they called. So a little bit of perspective is in order.
The biggest issue is volume. How can you be up 4% on the Nassy and have volume below the 50 day volume average? I’ll tell you how. You create a massive bear market short-covering rally. That is what we got.
Stocks Revert Back To Old Ways; A Day Of Back And Forth Meaningless Trading Ends With Stocks Slightly Higher On Lower Volume
April 5, 2007 | Leave a Comment
Stocks went back to their old ways of not doing much intraday but boring us to death, after a few important economic numbers hit the wires. The ISM service index fell to 52.4 in March from 54.3 in February. Expectations were for 54.7, so obviously this was not good news. The prices paid index rose to 63.3 in March from 53.8 in February, indicating inflation is still very real. Also, according to the Census Bureau’s factory orders, orders fell 1% in February after being down 5.7% in January. These numbers, overall, were very weak and not bullish. However, the market managed to put in more gains despite these poor economic numbers. Read more
The Bad News From The Housing Sector Just Doesn’t Stop; Stocks End Lower But On Lower Volume
March 27, 2007 | Leave a Comment
It was a day of bad news all around, as rising oil prices, more bad news from the housing market, and a drop in consumer confidence rocked stocks early. After the early morning rock, stocks basically spent the rest of the day boring everyone as all of the action was before the bell.
Before the bell, the Conference Board consumer confidence index fell to 107.2 in March, from a downward revised 111.2 in February. This was the first decline in five month and below estimates, after the index hit a 5 1/2 year high in February. Then we had the bad news from LEN’s Q1 report. The stock said this quarter EPS came in 72% lower and withdrew 2007 earnings estimates. The combination of these two news events, with oil making gains helped send all stock indexes lower. The bad news continued, after-hours, for the homebuilders, but we will get to that later.
At the close, the Nasdaq and SP 600 led to the downside with .7% declines, the SP 500, the DJIA and NYSE lost .6%, and the SP 400 held up the best with only a .5% loss. Leading stocks kept pace with the market, with the IBD 100 falling .7%. Even with the leading stocks keeping pace with the Nassy to the downside, there still was virtually no selling in the stocks that make up this current index.
Stock Market Averages Put In A Key Short-Term Reversal, On Stronger Volume; How Long Will This Bounce Last?
March 14, 2007 | Leave a Comment
It was a wild ride this Wednesday as stocks started the day off where they left off yesterday. On the back of Labor Dept. data showing the import price index rise .2% and the Commerce Dept. showing 4Q account deficits narrowing, stocks kept the pace of yesterday’s losses early. But after the markets made new lows for the year, breaking past the March 5th lows, stock market indexes quickly reversed and rose into the final bell, closing at or near their HOD. Read more
Stocks Close Slightly Higher, Ending A Week Of Low Volume Gains; Beautiful Charts Still Do Not Exist
March 10, 2007 | 2 Comments
Stocks gapped higher off a mixed jobs report. Total jobs for the month came in at the lowest level in two years but the unemployment data dipped to 4.5% from 4.6% and last months numbers were revised up continuing a recent pattern, possibly giving market players a bit of buying power. The gap higher then led to an immediate selloff, followed by a weak rally, that led to even more lows. However, at the end stocks actually caught a late bid, helping them close off the lows. A pattern that did not exist the rest of the week. The prevailing pattern, before Friday’s close was to rally until the final hour then either selloff or flatline. This is bearish action and combining that with the low volume rally puts and end to a dead-cat bounce week. Read more
Wild And Choppy Intraday Action Ends With Most Indexes Red; Day Two Of Rally Attempt
March 8, 2007 | Leave a Comment
It was a choppy day today (no surprise here) as stocks opened flat, then fell, the rallied, and then took a last hour nosedive. When it was over, all indexes ended in the red closing near the LOD, except the MidCap 400 index. There was not much in economic news to move the market. The Fed Beige Book showed modest growth in the economy, with 3 out of 12 districts slowing down. This lack of econ news kept the market in a benign trading range that led to a last hour selloff that killed a possible green close. Read more
