I Started Talking About The Parabolic Runs In Chemical-Fertilizer Stocks A Week Ago And Today They Confirmed The Analysis; Is Their A Possible Rotation Into Technology Stocks?
April 24, 2008 | Leave a Comment
What a weird session! Finally, something interesting to talk about. And by interesting I mean that all the chemical-fertilizer stocks that I have been listing as “parabolic charts” in my forums the past week have finally sold off on very heavy volume. I am not sure if this is the ultimate top but we are very blessed to have an excellent futures trader amongst are midst and he has been screaming to short the commodities the pat few days. Now, while those selloff, finally, the stocks start to catch up. I hope this is the top to the commodities, but something tells me this will probably be just another short term adjustment.
Either way, it really doesn’t matter to me. I have taken my 400% and 500% gain from TNH and MOS back in 2006-2007 a long time ago and I am just waiting for these things to top so that I may try to take a piece of the pie back when they head back to earth where all stocks belong after a climax run.
Nasdaq Leads The Way Higher On Slightly Higher Volume As Semiconductor Stocks Account For Much Of The Gains; AAPL Disappoints
April 24, 2008 | Leave a Comment
It was another typical day that we have seen recently where not a lot gets accomplished and we pretty much just give back whatever happened the day before in the opposite direction. Still, I do believe, that today’s gains coming with higher volume is a positive overall. And if you look at your Nasdaq daily chart, you will see that pattern show up a lot the past month (lower volume selling, higher volume rally). That is the reason the Nasdaq carries an ACC/DIS rating of A- which makes it the most heavily accumulated index out there.
Today, however, that was minor compared to the SOX’s 4% powerful rally that saw shares of BRCM leap today on huge volume. I am starting to believe that what I COULD be seeing is a rotation from commodity stocks (which don’t appear to be done yet at all) into technology stocks. That can best be viewed by taking a look at your daily SOX chart for 2008. As you can see we have a ton of excellent price action to go along with all that support right in the 340 to 350 zone. The move in the SOX today gets it ever closer to being able to take back and claim its 200 DMA. Tech stocks led in 9900 and big-cap tech did well in 2003 also. However, since then it has been all commodities but if the parabolic runs I am seeing in POT MOS AGU FEED etc…I will continue to monitor those stocks for a blowoff top and watch Semi/Tech stocks for more breakouts or possible bottoms.
I HATE calling bottoms while a stock market is falling and I hate saying a stock has bottomed until after the fact it looks bottomed. When I look at the stocks in the Semi index, I can honestly say, that I am starting to get that “feel-good” feeling in my body where I think that we are just moments away from launching a big rally. However, anything can happen in this market and I promise you that INDEED ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN. EVEN THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE this market is going to resolve itself to the upside via some tech stocks trying to regain a strong uptrend. But once again, though I feel good and it appears eventually the SOX can take off and run, anything can happen and that is why I am prepared for anything and everything. Up, down, sideways, or a halt. I have my game plan ready to go!!
Do You Have That Feeling That We Might Not Have Put In The Ultimate Bottom?
April 22, 2008 | 1 Comment
Today was not that bad, overall, minus a few stocks that were completely earnings related. However, the fact that volume did in fact pick up is still none-the-less technically a distribution day. Still with volume well below the 50 day volume average, it sure is hard to get too bearish over a day like this. But at the exact same time, it sure is hard to get really bullish here when I see so many potential nice charts start to setup only to not make it.
The higher volume selling that hit the market today was the second below-average volume distribution day in a couple of weeks. While long-term this is nothing serious, on the short-term a few more days of this could put a monkey-wrench into this rally. Right now, as it stands, though, I would not be too worried about these two days since the put/call raises to such high levels on these kind of days. If the crowd was getting more complacent, I might be a little worried that the selling might pick up.
But the fact volume remains low and the fact that almost zero stocks have shown up the past two weeks as strong short candidates is a clear tell that this isn’t a market you necessarily want to be short…or long really.
Stocks Reverse Hard Selling Off All Session Into The Close, Closing Near The LOD; Lower Volume Eases Selling Pressure But Some Leaders Selloff On Higher Volume
March 29, 2008 | 2 Comments
The morning got off to a good start as the indexes gapped higher and started off strong right out of the gate, with the Nasdaq leading the way higher with a 1% gain. After that, sadly for the bulls, it was nothing but a slightly choppy ride lower with the market selling off the entire way lower with the 1% gain in the Nassy turning into a .9% loss by the EOD. The DJIA closed near the session lows for the second straight session. This was not a bullish session, to say the least.
Despite the losses, there was one bit of good news that can be taken away from this session and that is that volume was lower across the board. In fact, Friday’s volume was the lowest turnover of 2008 and shows that institutional investors who make up over 75% of the volume in the stock market were not active at all. Still, you can’t get too excited about low volume pullbacks when they come after low volume rallies.
We did have one heavy volume rally on 3/20 when the DJIA had its follow-through day. However, since then we have been left with nothing but low volume volatile-intraday sessions that have left us at the same point we were at right before the two bullish days on 1/22 and 1/23. This is not good as it is not normal to see a market have a FTD and then not put out any big winners that are working right away or have any follow-through days to the follow-through day.
Stocks move higher without steam
March 25, 2008 | Leave a Comment
The collective yawn you hear is coming from today’s stock market. At 3:55pmEST volume looks to be lower by 10-15% across the board when compared to yesterday’s volume. This is definitely not the type of bullish action you would like to see in a confirmed market rally.
Mid-caps are leading the way along with the NYSE composite index. Boring markets are hard to guage, price action is bullish but with such a dry up in volume. It is hard to get any excitement out of today’s gains.
Where Did All The Volume Go?; Huge Rally With Weak Close And Low Volume Is Not Bullish For The Market Long-Term
March 24, 2008 | Leave a Comment
It was beyond a great day for the stock market, once again, for the second day in-a-row, as the Nasdaq led the way higher with a 3% gain that had many market participants jumping for joy. Too bad all that jumping for joy was not celebrated alongside large institutional investors who decided to stay away from the market today as I guess they did not want to be part of the short-covering rally. And with volume coming in well below the 50 day volume average you can be sure that that is exactly what we saw today. It was just your usual bull bounce in an overall bearish market environment.
That bounce was given credit due to JPM buying BSC for $10 a share instead of $2. This whole thing sounds crooked to me and I will just leave the action in BSC to that. But, this news was given credit, on top of some good existing-home sales data, for today’s gains. Well, you know what news would have been better with today’s 3% gain? NO NEWS. It is a huge rally on large volume that comes with no news and a lot of stocks breaking out that gets me more exciting than any other news headline I could possibly see. It almost gets me as excited as the bottom callers who call a constant bottom in this market, are wrong 5 times before they are right once, and then when they get a tiny bounce dance in the streets that all is well.
I forgot what it was like to be involved in a stock market where price action is so rough yet so many “traders” can’t stand still and keep trading their pants off like it was a rip-roaring bull market. But here I am in one again for the first time since 2000-2002. It is incredible how not even ten years can go by and yet we have still forgotten all the lessons we should have learned there. The bottoms callers today sound just like the bottom callers then. They are so sure this is a bottom that the put/call has fallen to .80.
DJIA Leads The Way As BSC Rocks The Stock Market On Mixed Volume; How Can This Be A Bottom Without A HUGE Surge In Volume On the Nasdaq And NYSE? It Can’t Be!
March 17, 2008 | 2 Comments
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Stocks gapped lower after a horrible announcement by JPM that they bought BSC for $2 a share. Now, while I don’t want to gloat on this, I just want to say that for the 100th time in my life I have warned a bunch of traders to not buy a certain stock and yet they still do it. There was one reader from Santa Barbara from RealMoney.com that attacked me 8 days ago for telling him BSC was a POS. Well here we are from $75 to $4 and yet still no apology. No, thank you. No, I am sorry. Just a big pile of nothing. From Eugj to BHCO to Gerard to WillPS to SCO to Geoffrey from Santa Barbara: all of these characters have called me out and told me that I did not know what they were doing and EVERY SINGLE TIME THEY WERE PROVEN WRONG AND EVERY SINGLE TIME I DIDN’T RECEIVE A SINGLE I AM SORRY OR THANK YOU. Is this what our world has come to? 
Oh well, there is no doubt I have become a sensitive character in my old age and things like this bugs me now. I just don’t know how yet to act when it comes to responding to jackoffs that make themselves out to be major idiots. I guess I will learn to ignore it in the future. The exact same way I ignore going long any stock below the 50 day moving average or go short stocks above the 50 DMA.
CROX Helps Stock Indexes Gap Lower As They Continue To Selloff To The LOD at the EOD On Higher Volume
November 1, 2007 | Leave a Comment
Stocks gapped lower thanks to a negative sentiment off the CROX swoon and the expectations that the Fed had no reason to cut rates anymore. This seemed to weigh on the market and many stocks took very large hits. The worst was that the market according to my charting software sold off on higher volume marking a distribution day for the Nasdaq and the NYSE, SP 500.
The good news about the selling is that most of the wide selection of my current holdings had very normal pullbacks. Some did so on higher volume and I did have quite a few partial sells. But still less than 10 stocks were complete sells signaling that it wasn’t horrible. Even the recent longs I have taken are holding up, though they are not racing higher like they should be. It is still better than selling off, which most did not. Overall, this has to be taken as a slight positive. If it was really that bad, trust me, I would have had to have dumped around 10-20 stocks.
It was around 7-to-1 decliners over advancers on the NYSE which had a kind of severe selling feel to it. This horrible breadth is normally seen at the end of a decline. Not the start. 25-to-6 was the ratio on the Nasdaq, which confirms the wide margin on the NYSE. This along with the put/call racing up to .94 on this decline has the feel that the majority of the selling is in the books.
Possible Stagflation?; Stocks Lose Ground On Higher Volume, Giving The Market Its Second Distribution Day
April 12, 2007 | Leave a Comment
Stocks started the day weak on the back of data from the NAR announcing that they expected existing home sales to fall in 2007-the first drop in 38 yrs-and also see lower existing and new home sales in the short term. That combined with higher gas prices weighed on stocks early. But once again the dip buyers showed up and started to bid stocks higher. That was until the Fed March meeting minutes came out at 2pm. That promptly sent stocks to new lows on the day before they received a minor bid into the close. Read more
Stocks Rally Again And Close Near Their HOD, On Stronger Volume; Volume Well Below The 50 Day Volume Average
April 11, 2007 | Leave a Comment
Stocks performed the same way as they have been recently, with the markets gapping up, selling off, and then finding dip-buyers to help bring them off their lows and sending them near their highs by the close. All of this happened despite a very healthy amount of bad news from the housing and mortgage industry. Almost half of my links that I received today involved stories about the housing and lending markets. However, stocks digested the data and did what they have been doing recently rallying the rest of the day. Read more
