What A Difference One Week Makes; Leading Stocks Signal That There May Be More Work To Do Before A Real Strong Rally Can Ever Take Hold
May 24, 2008 | 4 Comments
There is no doubt that I am suffering my WORST Multiple Sclerosis attack to date. Since Saturday I have basically been bed ridden and RIGHT OFF THE BAT I want to apologies if any of this is a little hard to follow because I feel like trash. I am not sure if this will effect what I am about to write but do me a favor and do NOT bust my balls if I misplace a word or misspell a word. My life is too short to deal with this.
I had a completely different approach in mind when I first wanted to write this but I figure I will stick with the facts. The facts are as quickly as this market looked like good times could be returning it in fact was possibly throwing us false “all clear” signal. Now while I never fully bought into this rally due to the volume, I still held hope that the rotation that I started to see into technology stocks would continue. Now I am beginning to wonder if that is what is happening or if they are making it appear that this was the case just to shut the door in our face.
At the end of last week things were looking very strong for the stock market, despite the low volume, as a lot of stocks that were in our portfolios were producing some large gains. But without ANY warning or clear reversal signal, the stocks started pulling back slowly getting rid of all the gains. The lucky part is that we did sell SOME as they pulled back since volume was higher. But the stocks pulling back on low volume and green BOP gave us no reason to sell. Since stocks that move up 20% in two weeks should always be held for at least eight-weeks it seemed stupid to sell anything pulling back. However, now it appears we should have taken more gains. This is the one time not taking profits quickly hurt us. The low volume was the tell and I should understand that next time as this is nto the first time I have witnessed this action.
A very Boring Session Ends With The Market Higher But On Lower Volume
May 23, 2008 | 3 Comments
Today’s market really did not have anything meaningful within it to focus on today. But what can be said about today’s rally is that it came on lower volume which is not what you like to see after a distribution day. However, it is good news that out of all of my longs, even though I had plenty where profits need to be taken, there was not a single one that needed to be completely cut for breaking the original thesis of the trade.
Without anything happening today that changes anything in the markets, I think it would be a waste of my time and yours if I put a bunch of junk up here that was just words to fill up a page. Kind of like most of the stock market commentary I read out there. There sure are a lot of long-winded people like me out there. Anyways, if you are at least a silver subscriber you have plenty to read on the new silver longs/shorts sections as I have typed out a few important notes over there.
For those that will still be here on Friday (a lot of our chat members have already checked out), I hope you enjoy trying to stay awake. Because that will more than likely be the call of duty for us tomorrow. I would not be surprised if volume is near the lowest or actually is the lowest day of the year and if we can move more than .5% up or down I will be floored.
Was It Really That Bad? Nassy Falls On Lower Volume And NYSE Volume Rises But Remains Below Average; How About MXC, CKX, FPP, PDO, ROYL, and CLR!!
May 20, 2008 | 2 Comments
It sure was not a bullish day but at the same token it does seem people are treating today as the beginning of the end and in my investment life I have learned that when everyone thinks that something is going to happen the opposite usually happens.
on that note, today’s selling sure did bring out a lot of people that are worried about further selling. To that, all I have to say is if you have some profits and do feel afraid you will lose some. Why don’t you sell 20%, lock in some gains, sit back and relax, and then let the stock TELL YOU what to do next. For now, I don’t see a reason for all the worrying that I saw today. How I judge how bad selling is is to see what it does to my current holdings and to see what the short scans bring up.
When it comes to the 70 plus stocks I am long (14 are of good size the rest are nothing that will change the fate of my world) there were ABSOLUTELY ZERO that gave me a FULL sell signal. Everything that pulled back did so either on low volume, barely pulled back on higher volume and had a bullish reversal before the close, and/or if it did pullback heavy it did not close below either significant support or the 50 DMA. Now I hate to be a party pooper for the HUGE short interest that is out there but facts remain that when a market is ready to top I will not only have a few partial sells I WILL HAVE A FEW FULL SELLS. Tonight, I had NO full sells.
Looking For Leaders In This Market
May 19, 2008 | 5 Comments
One thing that I do not hear a lot about but that is very clear to me is that stocks that are leading ARE REALLY leading. That can be seen especially when it comes to the amount of stocks that are hitting new 52-week highs. About a couple months ago things started to slowly change when new 52-week lows stopped expanding at the pace they were.
After the March lows and a small market rally, the new high list started to slowly build. And now we are at a point where even on down days, the past two weeks, the amount of new highs either match, are breakeven, or barely losing to new lows.
On Friday there were 244 new 52-week highs to 95 new 52-week lows. This was the best reading I have seen yet, since God knows when. I know in the August to October there were a lot of stocks hitting new highs but I am not sure it looked THIS GOOD then.
The leadership is clearly focused in one area too. The energy stocks had 96 of the 224 stocks hitting new highs come from their list. These stocks that you should be watching for future bounces off the 50 DMA or breakout are PDO, FPP, ATN, PHII, RAME, HUSA, RDC, APWR, TELOZ, WLL, ESV, APC, WMB, OXY, GMXR, COP, NE, CVX, GTE, SFY, CNQ, GU, HOS, BTU, NXY, ECA, BTE, HK, CAM, HES, PDE, FTI, UNT, WFT, MCF, STR, PXD, HP, CPX, PXP, SPN, PBR, HAL, MMR, E, SSL, SWN, WTI, WHQ, PBRA, SM, EAC, GLF, PVA, FST, TTES, CXG, and WES. All of these stocks have GREAT fundamentals and are all leaders based on price performance.
Bullish Week Ends With Leading Stocks And The SOX Taking The Lead (Part Two)
May 18, 2008 | Leave a Comment
Randomly continuing where we left off yesterday, besides the put/call showing a little of fear coming back into it even with some indexes higher. One index continues to print what should be considered bearish numbers. That is the VIX. The VIX closed at 16.47 Friday and intraday on Wednesday hit 16.10. That was the lowest reading since October right before the November top.
I know I am very bullish on this market, even without volume, due to all the setups and charts that are already breaking out out there. But don’t question if I would turn, if we got like three major distribution days in-a-row. If that was the case and there was no bounce here, then you have plenty of reasons to get bearish and top calling. But as long as we have stocks like EXM DRYS, and even CNQR showing up, I think I will hold off on top calling. For all I know it will take the put/call to hit .40 and the VIX to hit sub-10 before stocks finally top off this current run.
People that have already sold all of their holdings that they started buying in March, just like the people that told me to bottom fish in March, are just not at the level they need to be at. Nobody, should be out of any DGLY, GFA, or any of the other recent longs like PWRD ISYS and OTEX which have not acting perfectly since going long (that is unless you are a newbie then you should lock in anywhere from 10% to 20% on DGLY, VISN, or anything else up 50% since we went long the past few months). However, they are not acting like GENC and it is a great thing. FEED, even before the recent selling, gave us plenty of time to take some off the table; I took 50% off before the move down. Did you?
Another Bullish Day Equals Another Great Day For Our Longs
May 14, 2008 | 1 Comment
Today was yet another day where the market did not do much but our longs crushed it. This time it was our recent solar stock purchases. This continues a very bullish pattern of where everything I buy continues to move higher. Once again, tonight there are four new longs and zero full sells. This has been a recurring theme and is a theme of any bullish market. Higher volume or not.
Even though we still have zero institutional support on the indexes, it is clear that in this stock picking market there are a lot of stocks they are accumulating. The majority are in the energy industries, obviously. It might not be easy to buy stocks correct but it sure has not been difficult knowing where to put a lot of money. The gains in two solar stocks today that I am heavily long is more proof that as long as you know how to pick the best stocks, you can destroy the stock market. Remember, all those people from weakmoney.com that were telling me to go long stocks like GS, LEH, MS. I don’t know about you but I told you then that you did NOT have to buy the exact low to make a CRAPLOAD of money in the stock market. My recent longs are proving that.
For those that still think that you have to buy the exact low, this should now prove to you that those talking heads on CNBC are just that. Talking heads.
Nasdaq Leads Impressive Day Of Gains On Slightly Higher Volume That Is STILL Well Below Average; NYSE Slowest Day Since December 27, 2007
May 13, 2008 | Leave a Comment
I don’t know what I can say about this market that has not already been said. I find it very difficult to BS about the market when there is nothing to BS about. But I will give it a shot.
I do not like seeing the IBD 100 lag the Nassy on a day of such strong gains. The other thing I do not like seeing is the impressive gains on much lower volume with the NYSE having its lowest day of volume this year. This is a clear sign the big boys have no interest in buying this market. However, as you can tell via my recent longs, there are a few stocks they are still interested in buying. That is why this is still a stock pickers market and thank GOD I can pick them!
Until volume returns to this market, there is no way I am going to let go of 25-33% of my cash. I am going to continue to keep that on the sidelines while I wait for another perfect long setup like the stock that had a good day today. If another chart can show up like that, I would be more than happy to drop that cash position. But still with the low volume, it is hard to get 400% invested on margin.
Another Perfect Day For Our Longs, Especially Our “PERFECT” Long; Never Short A Dull Market
May 12, 2008 | Leave a Comment
So far things are looking good and unless we close at the LOD and wipe out all of the gains I will be very happy. My charts continue to look well as some of my largest positions (9 of them) are up HUGE today making today a great day after two days in the country/jungle. what a great way to start the week. The only thing I will be watching closely is the close and volume. I want volume higher by the EOD and I want us to close strong or if not strong to make it a perfect day, at least not at the LOD.
Also another lesson of NEVER chasing is today in GENC. I have been taking profits on the way up and if you have been following all my sells in the forums you will see that I was already out of 40% of it before today’s decline. Even after the swoon today, we still have a gain in it. Also, do not sell it intraday. The chances are much higher with it being down this much that it will have a strong rally before the EOD. Even if it doesn’t, it doesn’t matter, the stock is a full sell and we still walk away with a profit on the full 100% with me already being out of nearly-half when the stock was between a30% and 60% gain.
Our leaders are doing well and remember if you own a stock up 20% or more in less than two weeks (which we have had a few quick monsters), you need to hold them at LEAST eight weeks.
I Do Not Like The Selling After All These Nice Charts Have Set Up
May 7, 2008 | 5 Comments
Where are the mutual funds that are hoarding cash? If these guys do not step in and start buying stocks and we continue to have to rely on the shorts to cover higher to produce a rally, my faith in this rally is going to start to fall real fast.
I refuse to get as bearish as the crowd and I have been expecting a pullback but seriously if volume continues this below average pace, I just don’t see how in the heck this can turn into a long-lasting bull market.
So if you want to be a raging bull, go ahead. I still remain cautious but would love to get EXTREMELY long here as the charts are starting to round out. However, selling here after these nice charts started showing up would be very bad. Maybe this is why my short scans have been active, like I have been talking about on the ‘Silver Shorts’ area.
Hopefully, the elephants will return soon, or else those mice that are keeping them away will start to scare me soon.
Nasdaq 100 And PHLX Semiconductor Index Lead The Way Higher On Higher Volume; Leading Stocks Are Setting Up And/Or Breaking Out Everywhere
May 2, 2008 | 1 Comment
COMMENTARY WILL BE SHORT AS MY SURF SESSION WAS EXTREMELY LONG AND TIRING.
I was impressed by today’s stock market session, especially when it came to leading stocks, tech stocks, and even more specifically semiconductor stocks. It was amazing to get a rally in such high-tech group of stocks. What made today’s rally even better was that volume increased on the Nasdaq and was above the 50 day volume average for the fifth time in the past few weeks. This was the fourth time it was a big up day with volume above average. And even though the NYSE has only had twenty-nine straight days without volume being above average, it is at least in an uptrend and that with low volume is OK with more, for now.
A lot of people are worried about the market being right at resistance and being oversold since our lows. You know what, that is fair, I will agree with that. We do need to be aware that we are running into resistance, we are overbought, and the volume has been close to pathetic during the rally so it is possible we could run into some heavy volume selling.
