Some Days Are Just Better Than Others; This Was Not One Of Them
April 7, 2008 | Leave a Comment
I will try to get back here and right an intelligenct report on today’s stock market action. But it can basically can be summed up as “we are biding our time.” We are still simply waiting to see which direction volume is going to come in. If it is for the bulls, we are going to have a great time as we have a lot of very pretty charts now setting up. However, all it takes is a couple of bad days, ie, FEED, to destroy a hot stock chart.
On Thursday, the chart of FEED was one of my favorites. By Friday night it became one of my most scary longs as I had that quick revelation that this “could” happen to every single leading stock we can find. Therefore, it is still all about cash. And speaking of cash, yours truly just spent a lot more last night.
Last night I became VIOLENTLY ill for the second time since September. So bad in fact that I was forced to go to the hospital again! This is really starting to go out of control and I feel like I am losing a grip on my physical body as it is now finally starting to do stuff without my notice/interest. While I am still surfing, I might as well live it up because I can not be taking 45 minute drives to the Hospital every time a severe illness (which is possibly a result of the beta serons).
Another Wild Intraday Session Ends With Not Much Happening By The EOD; Cash Is Still King In This Low Volume Market
March 31, 2008 | 23 Comments
It is hard to continuously say the same thing over and over but it is true. There is nothing to do in this market other than to keep your trades small and your cash high. Especially, if you are a perma-bull as we are now finishing the month down for the fifth time in-a-row. This is much different from anything we saw from 2003 to November 2007.
I know a few traders that for some ungodly reason were bullish after today’s close. This was because they said the Fed has a new way of making sure the market has bottomed. Once again, the same market call but this time from different players with a different excuse. No matter how many people try this argument with me and no matter for what reason it is, I simply will not believe it until it is true. When I see the market making strong gains on strong volume with top stocks breaking out and moving higher (heck there doesn’t even have to be heavy volume on the indexes; I just need some HOT freaking charts, for God’s sake), then I will wrap my arms around this market just like the perma-bulls have been the entire way down.
The right thing to keep on doing is raising cash with stocks that we are cutting our losses on or taking profits on and to keep the new buys or shorts small until a trend is clear. Right now, the market has no clear trend as a low volume trading environment has now entered the stock market which could help build some nice bases. However, nothing is hinting at that what-so-ever as few NEW and FRESH stocks are forming bases after a previous uptrend in innovative companies with great fundamentals.
Another Boring Day Ends With Stocks Pulling Back On Lower Volume; God Help Us All If Tomorrow Is As Slow
March 28, 2008 | 2 Comments
I had a lot of errands that I had to run tonight and the funny thing is that the most important one still is unfinished. And you know what, sometimes that is just the way it goes. I could have been upset that I did not get it done but instead I decided I would cash in my chips and wait for another day.
That right there is exactly how I see the stock market right now. This is a market that looked like it was going to deliver us something good and instead it ended up having a closed sign on it and now we can not get what we want. Many traders want to enter this store and take the merchandise out of it and play with it but the market is closed to CANSLIM investors and there is still nothing I really want in the store anyways.
If that did not make any sense, because I am too tired maybe this will. Tomorrow I am going to go driving around this island for surf. The chances are that nothing is going to be out there. But I am still going to bring a shortboard and longboard and PRAY that something exist out there. If I drive around and there is nothing out there, do you think I am going to paddle out into a lake of flatness? Or let’s say it doesn’t even hit my knees, do I then take my shortboard out? OF COURSE NOT. When there is nothing, there is nothing. Trying to surf waves that are NOT there is stupid and kooky. You want to look like a freaking schmuck? Paddle out into Waikiki waves with your shortboard. Let me know how the “vibe” is.
Immediate Distribution Day On The NYSE And SP-500 Proves Bottom Callers Are Going To Be Wrong AGAIN; Now That They Have Hit The Current/New Leaders (Gold, Oil, and Chemicals) This Could Get Real Ugly
March 19, 2008 | 7 Comments
Wow is about all I have to say today after watching the market’s action. And the wow does not refer to the price reversal on the major market indexes. The wow has to deal with the action today in the top four leading industry groups in the IBD industry groups. They were simply rocked! Not only did they selloff hard, they did it on low volume. When the leaders are treated like this you can guarantee that there are some major problems stirring underneath.
Today quite a unique event happened today in the market that I have not seen the entire downtrend. And, imo, this is not good. The last time I saw this was in late 2000. That is when the bear market gained steamed and sent stocks much lower. Well, today, the chemical-fertilizer, metal ore-gold/silver, steel-producers, and oil&gas - US expl prod all fell between 5.9% and 6.9% which is just shocking. To see leading stocks in this really rough market get treated like this is the last thing from bullish as it can be. Only a politician could spin this as bullish.
5 out of the top 9 worst performers were in the top 10 industry groups. This is not how a market should act. Not only should the leaders be from more innovative areas of the economy, they shouldn’t be selling off when they are up there. If the weak stocks are getting CRUSHED (BSC TMA C etc..) and the strong stocks are getting crushed (GTU AUY BVN XEC EOG etc…) where is there to hide? The answer is no where. Only is cash or bonds the safe place to be. It is simply not a market any of the greatest traders today or of all-time would mess with.
Low Volume Rally Runs Right Into Major Resistance: THE FED!; Stocks Selloff On Higher Volume Possibly Ending This Recent Rally
December 11, 2007 | Leave a Comment
What more can you say but WOW!? There is no doubt in my mind that this was one of the worst intraday selloffs I have ever seen in my trading life. Now, I am sure I probably have seen one this nasty before. In fact, in all honesty, I know I have. But it hasn’t been since at least 2000-2002. Since then, I know we have never seen anything like this so late in a day destroying the market like this.
Since I focus on individual charts more than I do to any of the talking heads on the web or TV, I can manage to fight through all the confusion. However, this has been a market that has definitely not helped me out at all. My charts are basically worthless to me, right now. Sadly, this year has seen nothing but disappointments left and right by HOT HOT HOT stocks with great charts. Even when those chart patterns had powerful fundamentals driving the price higher it seemed after the perfect buy signal was given that it would fail.
Recently, despite the low volume, the market has produced some nice charts, making some (including myself) believe that this rally could last longer than expected. However, today put an end to all of that thought. Most hot stocks also felt the wrath of the market today as everything I owned seemed to pullback.
Worden - TeleChart Gold
November 1, 2007 | 2 Comments
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Stock Indexes Erase Early Morning Losses, Rallying Into The Close, Closing Near Their Highs Of The Day
February 17, 2007 | Leave a Comment
Stocks fought off morning weakness, caused by a revenue warning from MSFT, and rallied the rest of the day to close flat and near the highs of the day. This bit of news from MSFT particularly hit the Nassy the hardest as MSFT represents 6% of this index. The strength in the indexes in the face of the selling in MSFT shares can only be seen as impressive. Many traders expected much worse, considering that the news came on top of a report showing Housing starts falling 14%. Read more
