Bullish Week Ends With Leading Stocks And The SOX Taking The Lead (Part Two)
May 18, 2008 | Leave a Comment
Randomly continuing where we left off yesterday, besides the put/call showing a little of fear coming back into it even with some indexes higher. One index continues to print what should be considered bearish numbers. That is the VIX. The VIX closed at 16.47 Friday and intraday on Wednesday hit 16.10. That was the lowest reading since October right before the November top.
I know I am very bullish on this market, even without volume, due to all the setups and charts that are already breaking out out there. But don’t question if I would turn, if we got like three major distribution days in-a-row. If that was the case and there was no bounce here, then you have plenty of reasons to get bearish and top calling. But as long as we have stocks like EXM DRYS, and even CNQR showing up, I think I will hold off on top calling. For all I know it will take the put/call to hit .40 and the VIX to hit sub-10 before stocks finally top off this current run.
People that have already sold all of their holdings that they started buying in March, just like the people that told me to bottom fish in March, are just not at the level they need to be at. Nobody, should be out of any DGLY, GFA, or any of the other recent longs like PWRD ISYS and OTEX which have not acting perfectly since going long (that is unless you are a newbie then you should lock in anywhere from 10% to 20% on DGLY, VISN, or anything else up 50% since we went long the past few months). However, they are not acting like GENC and it is a great thing. FEED, even before the recent selling, gave us plenty of time to take some off the table; I took 50% off before the move down. Did you?
Another Bullish Day Equals Another Great Day For Our Longs
May 14, 2008 | 1 Comment
Today was yet another day where the market did not do much but our longs crushed it. This time it was our recent solar stock purchases. This continues a very bullish pattern of where everything I buy continues to move higher. Once again, tonight there are four new longs and zero full sells. This has been a recurring theme and is a theme of any bullish market. Higher volume or not.
Even though we still have zero institutional support on the indexes, it is clear that in this stock picking market there are a lot of stocks they are accumulating. The majority are in the energy industries, obviously. It might not be easy to buy stocks correct but it sure has not been difficult knowing where to put a lot of money. The gains in two solar stocks today that I am heavily long is more proof that as long as you know how to pick the best stocks, you can destroy the stock market. Remember, all those people from weakmoney.com that were telling me to go long stocks like GS, LEH, MS. I don’t know about you but I told you then that you did NOT have to buy the exact low to make a CRAPLOAD of money in the stock market. My recent longs are proving that.
For those that still think that you have to buy the exact low, this should now prove to you that those talking heads on CNBC are just that. Talking heads.
Bullish Week Ends With Mixed Trading On The Major Market Indexes; Individual Stocks Are Starting To Look Real Good
May 3, 2008 | Leave a Comment
It was another overall boring session to end the week but despite the overall boring tone to Friday’s session it was still a bullish session underneath as many stocks had solid sessions and many stocks that I was long had a very positive session. Overall, profit taking was quite mild in the AM and the strong mid-day rally into the close shows the bears are still not in control.
This kind of action on a do nothing day is just what I like to see in a market that refuses to do much. If there would have been a lot of blowups and negative action today, then I would have been a lot less enthusiastic about the non-event that Friday was.
By the close, the NYSE was up .6%, the SP 500 was up .3%, and the DJIA was flat. The Nasdaq finished lower but the intraday support and positive action by the close is something that has to be considered positive overall. I mean obviously if this market was real weak they would have sold them into the close.
Nasdaq Leads The Way Higher On Slightly Higher Volume As Semiconductor Stocks Account For Much Of The Gains; AAPL Disappoints
April 24, 2008 | Leave a Comment
It was another typical day that we have seen recently where not a lot gets accomplished and we pretty much just give back whatever happened the day before in the opposite direction. Still, I do believe, that today’s gains coming with higher volume is a positive overall. And if you look at your Nasdaq daily chart, you will see that pattern show up a lot the past month (lower volume selling, higher volume rally). That is the reason the Nasdaq carries an ACC/DIS rating of A- which makes it the most heavily accumulated index out there.
Today, however, that was minor compared to the SOX’s 4% powerful rally that saw shares of BRCM leap today on huge volume. I am starting to believe that what I COULD be seeing is a rotation from commodity stocks (which don’t appear to be done yet at all) into technology stocks. That can best be viewed by taking a look at your daily SOX chart for 2008. As you can see we have a ton of excellent price action to go along with all that support right in the 340 to 350 zone. The move in the SOX today gets it ever closer to being able to take back and claim its 200 DMA. Tech stocks led in 9900 and big-cap tech did well in 2003 also. However, since then it has been all commodities but if the parabolic runs I am seeing in POT MOS AGU FEED etc…I will continue to monitor those stocks for a blowoff top and watch Semi/Tech stocks for more breakouts or possible bottoms.
I HATE calling bottoms while a stock market is falling and I hate saying a stock has bottomed until after the fact it looks bottomed. When I look at the stocks in the Semi index, I can honestly say, that I am starting to get that “feel-good” feeling in my body where I think that we are just moments away from launching a big rally. However, anything can happen in this market and I promise you that INDEED ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN. EVEN THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE this market is going to resolve itself to the upside via some tech stocks trying to regain a strong uptrend. But once again, though I feel good and it appears eventually the SOX can take off and run, anything can happen and that is why I am prepared for anything and everything. Up, down, sideways, or a halt. I have my game plan ready to go!!
A Zig-Zag Day Ends With A Big Yawn As Late-Day Weakness Sends All Indexes Lower
April 15, 2008 | Leave a Comment
Well, in all honesty trying to draw conclusions from a day like today is quite useless. In fact, anyone that spent any amount of time today trying to delve into the data to find something useful just spent a whole day wasting time. Today was simply a low volume pullback and nothing-more and nothing-less. I believe, without even looking, that this was the dullest day of trading for 2008.
By the end nothing exciting happened except all the indexes were mildly lower. Too bad that was not the case for my biggest holdings. Shockingly, the past few days, the few charts that are starting to look “near-perfect” (meaning they still have time and the technicals still need work) are all acting the worst. On Friday my biggest holding was my worst holding prompting me to sell 25% and then today two of the five stocks that reside in my IRA now need to be cut. This is simply something I have never! experienced in twelve years. You can clearly see, by going over my ‘past big winners’ on the .com site that from 2000 to the 2002 lows I still about ten stocks make significant gains from beautiful chart patterns. Those same exact patterns are NO WHERE to be found right now and when they do start to form they seem to be targeted immediately.
This has prompted one emailer to wonder if the style has been “figured” out. LOL. To that I say it is simply IMPOSSIBLE. Do you know how many stocks are out there? Do you know how many different ways and reasons people have to trade? Do you know how many people REFUSE to buy stocks breaking out to new highs? Do you know how many people do not know how to buy new highs correctly (ie, they buy too late or too extended or after a heavy volume pullback)? Do you know how many people do NOT use telecharts thus making BOP completely irrelevant? Do you know how many people can not tell you what a cup with handle is that LIVE on the trading floor (I know, I once went around taking a quiz and I also asked could it come from a downtrend and uptrend. So many said no the first question and if they did say yes they then said it did not matter where it formed)? The fact is that this system is out of style, FOR NOW, but it will not be long before it comes back.
Stocks Selloff On Higher Volume, Helping Send Some Indexes To New 52-Week Closing Lows
March 7, 2008 | Leave a Comment
Stocks sold off yet again but this time it did so on higher volume which is helping make my point that selling can start off slowly and pickup as it sells off. If you look at the downtrend since last February, you can see that this is the case now as it has been in the past with other market selloffs.
The good news, today, is that, like most sessions recently, the market staged a very volatile and powerful reversal. This time it was to the bull side and it was needed for the trapped longs as stocks looked like they were going to put in another very bearish day of trading.
The past two days has the feeling of a market that is ready to start its downtrend, once again. This would be the third leg down, since the top in November. And just like when the market topped, there are still way too many people that are looking to buy stocks here. If more people were not looking for a bottom, we could look at this selloff as a bullish situation as it would get us one step closer to a real bottom where we can get HOT charts again. Too bad we don’t have anything new and fresh setting up out there. Instead it is the same mess everywhere, and when that is taken with all the “dumb” money looking for a bottom, you have a market that could get very ugly.
And very ugly is not what people are looking for. Now, I know the data we are receiving out there is very bearish and I do know that we have had a 24% pullback in the Nasdaq. However, that simply is not going to cut it right now. Like I have said, too many people are looking for a bottom, and some very ignorant (who think they are very smart) people are starting to make some bold statements.
