What A Difference One Week Makes; Leading Stocks Signal That There May Be More Work To Do Before A Real Strong Rally Can Ever Take Hold
May 24, 2008 | 4 Comments
There is no doubt that I am suffering my WORST Multiple Sclerosis attack to date. Since Saturday I have basically been bed ridden and RIGHT OFF THE BAT I want to apologies if any of this is a little hard to follow because I feel like trash. I am not sure if this will effect what I am about to write but do me a favor and do NOT bust my balls if I misplace a word or misspell a word. My life is too short to deal with this.
I had a completely different approach in mind when I first wanted to write this but I figure I will stick with the facts. The facts are as quickly as this market looked like good times could be returning it in fact was possibly throwing us false “all clear” signal. Now while I never fully bought into this rally due to the volume, I still held hope that the rotation that I started to see into technology stocks would continue. Now I am beginning to wonder if that is what is happening or if they are making it appear that this was the case just to shut the door in our face.
At the end of last week things were looking very strong for the stock market, despite the low volume, as a lot of stocks that were in our portfolios were producing some large gains. But without ANY warning or clear reversal signal, the stocks started pulling back slowly getting rid of all the gains. The lucky part is that we did sell SOME as they pulled back since volume was higher. But the stocks pulling back on low volume and green BOP gave us no reason to sell. Since stocks that move up 20% in two weeks should always be held for at least eight-weeks it seemed stupid to sell anything pulling back. However, now it appears we should have taken more gains. This is the one time not taking profits quickly hurt us. The low volume was the tell and I should understand that next time as this is nto the first time I have witnessed this action.
A very Boring Session Ends With The Market Higher But On Lower Volume
May 23, 2008 | 3 Comments
Today’s market really did not have anything meaningful within it to focus on today. But what can be said about today’s rally is that it came on lower volume which is not what you like to see after a distribution day. However, it is good news that out of all of my longs, even though I had plenty where profits need to be taken, there was not a single one that needed to be completely cut for breaking the original thesis of the trade.
Without anything happening today that changes anything in the markets, I think it would be a waste of my time and yours if I put a bunch of junk up here that was just words to fill up a page. Kind of like most of the stock market commentary I read out there. There sure are a lot of long-winded people like me out there. Anyways, if you are at least a silver subscriber you have plenty to read on the new silver longs/shorts sections as I have typed out a few important notes over there.
For those that will still be here on Friday (a lot of our chat members have already checked out), I hope you enjoy trying to stay awake. Because that will more than likely be the call of duty for us tomorrow. I would not be surprised if volume is near the lowest or actually is the lowest day of the year and if we can move more than .5% up or down I will be floored.
I Guess It Really Was That Bad
May 21, 2008 | Leave a Comment
I am not panic selling ANYTHING! But there is no doubt today’s action is negative and does hint that the uptrend very well could be over already. However, like always I wait to make my decision after all the data from the close is in. That will not be for another few hours.
No matter what, though, I will be locking in gains in a lot of stocks that initially have made big moves but have given so much back in a few short days that we must protect some gains just in case they become losses. So there will be a lot of selling tonight but if I am long a stock and it is still in an uptrend above the 50 day moving average there is no way I am going to sell it all.
Is this action disappointing? You better believe it is. Am I surprised? No. I have been telling you that there are no more perfect charts, have warned you about all the perfect charts turning into mediocre charts, and have been complaining about the low volume rally.
Was It Really That Bad? Nassy Falls On Lower Volume And NYSE Volume Rises But Remains Below Average; How About MXC, CKX, FPP, PDO, ROYL, and CLR!!
May 20, 2008 | 2 Comments
It sure was not a bullish day but at the same token it does seem people are treating today as the beginning of the end and in my investment life I have learned that when everyone thinks that something is going to happen the opposite usually happens.
on that note, today’s selling sure did bring out a lot of people that are worried about further selling. To that, all I have to say is if you have some profits and do feel afraid you will lose some. Why don’t you sell 20%, lock in some gains, sit back and relax, and then let the stock TELL YOU what to do next. For now, I don’t see a reason for all the worrying that I saw today. How I judge how bad selling is is to see what it does to my current holdings and to see what the short scans bring up.
When it comes to the 70 plus stocks I am long (14 are of good size the rest are nothing that will change the fate of my world) there were ABSOLUTELY ZERO that gave me a FULL sell signal. Everything that pulled back did so either on low volume, barely pulled back on higher volume and had a bullish reversal before the close, and/or if it did pullback heavy it did not close below either significant support or the 50 DMA. Now I hate to be a party pooper for the HUGE short interest that is out there but facts remain that when a market is ready to top I will not only have a few partial sells I WILL HAVE A FEW FULL SELLS. Tonight, I had NO full sells.
Lower Volume Selloff Hits Stocks As NYSE Volume Is Still Below Average; DRYS, EXM, and DSX All Put In Nasty Intraday Reversals Near Old Highs
May 19, 2008 | 1 Comment
I am not going to write a long commentary tonight as I really don’t see anything too important out there that I need to spend too much time focusing on. The biggest event was the late day selloff in the stock market. However, some are forgetting that the DJIA and SP 500 still closed higher and that volume was lower on both exchanges, with volume being below the 50 day volume average on the NYSE for the 41st straight day in-a-row.
Also, don’t forget the NYSE short-interest has hit ANOTHER all-time high at 13.66 meaning that it would take 14 days to cover all the shorts on the NYSE right now, on average volume. Even without volume, the market has an upward bias and I do not want to short a low-volume market especially when the short-interest are at astronomical levels in so many stocks. That is how you end up with MXC and PDO.
At the same end that I don’t want to be short or not long this strong market, I suggest that those that CONTINUE to buy stocks the day before earnings STOP. I always take my signals on my charts, almost NO MATTER WHAT. This takes all emotions out. But when I saw that PWRD had earnings my total buy that I had planned for Monday morning was chopped by 90%. Those that were in the chat room KNEW I did this. However, those here couldn’t have but I made it clear that this stock was not safe to go long for newbies. Thankfully, I did not see any horror stories about PWRD. But I am still disappointed as I thought I had myself a possible monster stock. But since it has failed, the last thing you will see me do is justify a WRONG position and hold on to it “hoping” that it comes back. Nope, that stock, along with GA, must be taken out. BOTH of those stocks show why buying a move the day of the earnings is a bad idea. Both charts setup up a buy signal the day before earnings and had I FOLLOWED MY OWN RULES I would have a little bit more money in my pockets.
Looking For Leaders In This Market
May 19, 2008 | 5 Comments
One thing that I do not hear a lot about but that is very clear to me is that stocks that are leading ARE REALLY leading. That can be seen especially when it comes to the amount of stocks that are hitting new 52-week highs. About a couple months ago things started to slowly change when new 52-week lows stopped expanding at the pace they were.
After the March lows and a small market rally, the new high list started to slowly build. And now we are at a point where even on down days, the past two weeks, the amount of new highs either match, are breakeven, or barely losing to new lows.
On Friday there were 244 new 52-week highs to 95 new 52-week lows. This was the best reading I have seen yet, since God knows when. I know in the August to October there were a lot of stocks hitting new highs but I am not sure it looked THIS GOOD then.
The leadership is clearly focused in one area too. The energy stocks had 96 of the 224 stocks hitting new highs come from their list. These stocks that you should be watching for future bounces off the 50 DMA or breakout are PDO, FPP, ATN, PHII, RAME, HUSA, RDC, APWR, TELOZ, WLL, ESV, APC, WMB, OXY, GMXR, COP, NE, CVX, GTE, SFY, CNQ, GU, HOS, BTU, NXY, ECA, BTE, HK, CAM, HES, PDE, FTI, UNT, WFT, MCF, STR, PXD, HP, CPX, PXP, SPN, PBR, HAL, MMR, E, SSL, SWN, WTI, WHQ, PBRA, SM, EAC, GLF, PVA, FST, TTES, CXG, and WES. All of these stocks have GREAT fundamentals and are all leaders based on price performance.
Another Bullish Day Equals Another Great Day For Our Longs
May 14, 2008 | 1 Comment
Today was yet another day where the market did not do much but our longs crushed it. This time it was our recent solar stock purchases. This continues a very bullish pattern of where everything I buy continues to move higher. Once again, tonight there are four new longs and zero full sells. This has been a recurring theme and is a theme of any bullish market. Higher volume or not.
Even though we still have zero institutional support on the indexes, it is clear that in this stock picking market there are a lot of stocks they are accumulating. The majority are in the energy industries, obviously. It might not be easy to buy stocks correct but it sure has not been difficult knowing where to put a lot of money. The gains in two solar stocks today that I am heavily long is more proof that as long as you know how to pick the best stocks, you can destroy the stock market. Remember, all those people from weakmoney.com that were telling me to go long stocks like GS, LEH, MS. I don’t know about you but I told you then that you did NOT have to buy the exact low to make a CRAPLOAD of money in the stock market. My recent longs are proving that.
For those that still think that you have to buy the exact low, this should now prove to you that those talking heads on CNBC are just that. Talking heads.
Nasdaq Leads Impressive Day Of Gains On Slightly Higher Volume That Is STILL Well Below Average; NYSE Slowest Day Since December 27, 2007
May 13, 2008 | Leave a Comment
I don’t know what I can say about this market that has not already been said. I find it very difficult to BS about the market when there is nothing to BS about. But I will give it a shot.
I do not like seeing the IBD 100 lag the Nassy on a day of such strong gains. The other thing I do not like seeing is the impressive gains on much lower volume with the NYSE having its lowest day of volume this year. This is a clear sign the big boys have no interest in buying this market. However, as you can tell via my recent longs, there are a few stocks they are still interested in buying. That is why this is still a stock pickers market and thank GOD I can pick them!
Until volume returns to this market, there is no way I am going to let go of 25-33% of my cash. I am going to continue to keep that on the sidelines while I wait for another perfect long setup like the stock that had a good day today. If another chart can show up like that, I would be more than happy to drop that cash position. But still with the low volume, it is hard to get 400% invested on margin.
I Do Not Like The Selling After All These Nice Charts Have Set Up
May 7, 2008 | 5 Comments
Where are the mutual funds that are hoarding cash? If these guys do not step in and start buying stocks and we continue to have to rely on the shorts to cover higher to produce a rally, my faith in this rally is going to start to fall real fast.
I refuse to get as bearish as the crowd and I have been expecting a pullback but seriously if volume continues this below average pace, I just don’t see how in the heck this can turn into a long-lasting bull market.
So if you want to be a raging bull, go ahead. I still remain cautious but would love to get EXTREMELY long here as the charts are starting to round out. However, selling here after these nice charts started showing up would be very bad. Maybe this is why my short scans have been active, like I have been talking about on the ‘Silver Shorts’ area.
Hopefully, the elephants will return soon, or else those mice that are keeping them away will start to scare me soon.
Leading Stocks Take The Lead Once Again As Oil&Gas Stocks Produce Massive Gains; 79% Think We Are In A Recession And That Makes Me Bullish!
May 6, 2008 | 2 Comments
It was another overall lower volume session as the NYSE, for the 32nd day in-a-row, came in with volume below the 50 day volume average once again. However, underneath the bullish mini-reversal that sent the Nasdaq from a .8% loss to a .8% gain, there was a TON of bullish action in stocks in a wide range of industries.
When the day started off, it sure did not seem like the good times were going to continue as more bad news rolled in from so many areas that it seemed the market was due for a rest. June oil climbed $1.87 to close at $121.84 and hit an HOD of $122.73. This definitely sent some fear in the market, on top of the UBS negative banking report, the FNM and FRE announcement, and then going back to oil GS predicting it to hit $200. However, proving that markets climb a wall of worry, indexes were able to shake all of this nonsense off and most indexes closed near their HOD with every index but the DJIA up .8% (the DJIA was up .4%).
The best news was not the higher volume than the day before, either. No, the best news, once again, was the dramatic and dynamic leadership of the IBD leading indexes. The IBD 85-85 came in with a heavier volume 1.3% gain. Leading stocks continue a pattern that started about a month ago with them making moving lower on the down days and now rising higher on the up days. This pattern has really started to develop recently and appears to be continuing that path for a little while long, at least.
