Leading Stocks Outperform On A Dull Trading Day; NYSE Pulls Back On Lowest Volume Of The Year
May 5, 2008 | Leave a Comment
It was yet another very low volume market session that really proved nothing today that we did not already know about this market. The one bright spot that occurred today that was noticeable to me by the action in the stocks that were showing up on my price/volume scans. The IBD 100 gained a very impressive 1.5% compared to the overall market which was slightly lower across the board. The IBD 100 also joined the rest of the market with A and B acc/dis ratings as it now sports a B- after today’s action.
However, the losses from the NYSE to the Nasdaq were all fine in my book as all the selling came with volume lower than the day before. What is even more bullish for stocks, for now, is that the low volume selloff was the lowest volume for the year on the NYSE. This low volume, with stocks pulling back, is just how you want to see stocks move. If you look at the Nasdaq, where it is most obvious, you can clearly see that the market is rising on higher volume and selling off on lower volume. This has been the case since March 4th and is starting to become visually quite obvious to me. That along with the actual ACC/DIS being an A- shows that this index and the stocks that make up this index are being accumulated.
Even though the accumulation is not on HUGE volume it is taking place none-the-less and as long as that is the case there is not reason to fight this trend. There are so many things that have turned in the favor of this market that I just don’t see it wise to be very bearish here. Even the ISM service, new orders, and employment indexes all moved over 50 which signals expansion. The price paid index is back up to 72.1. Take that along with the data that we are NOT in a recession and the positive slope to the yield curve and I find it hard to be as bearish as some are on this market.
Breakouts And Nice Round Bases Are Everywhere While Commodity Stocks Look Extremely Toppy
May 1, 2008 | Leave a Comment
I see nice round bases everywhere in EVERY long scan and CANSLIM scan that I run. Stocks like our HA long from 3/27/08 is already up 60% and MA from 8/2/06 is up almost 500% since then and now we have a lot of pretty green BOP filled charts starting to round out and complete bases. If they make handles, two or three-week tight bases, or another base on base, this market should be heading MUCH higher. Everywhere I look I see good chart patterns. Now if only I could get volume on the NYSE. But did you see the Nassy? Another BIG DAY OF GAINS ON HIGHER VOLUME. That is now five days of above average volume since 4/17. Only one was lower and it has seen a very bullish response today with even higher volume and much larger price gains.
Volume is starting to come back, my existing longs are now starting to put in some real strong gains, and bases are forming everywhere. This is definitely a market I want to be long. If we fail and reverse, it would be the NASTIEST reversal ever because this is how stocks should be acting before a powerful rally and a reversal of this super-bullish action would be in one word: NASTY!
Extremely Quiet Day Of Trading And A Big South Swell Equals Not Much To Talk About
April 30, 2008 | 3 Comments
The market did not do much of anything today as we all bide time ahead of the release of Q1 GDP and the FOMC interest rate decision. About the only market moving news today was the talk of V and MA earnings. Both of those stocks produced excellent action today in their respective security, with MA now giving me a 450% return in a little under two years. This is a very nice long-term capital gains. Even though the position is no longer huge, at least I still have some of it and can enjoy the Monster Stock that I own.
However, since the times that this stock broke out, it has been very hard to hold onto any past big winners for huge gains as the stock market is simply not in the right mood to help produce some huge returns. A VIX at 20 will do that! As long as this VIX stays down here and the market moves on lower volume, that is just more time that you can be sure we will have to wait before making any serious gains. When volume is well above average and the VIX is above 40 then I can wake up to some potential huge gains. Until then, we are GOING TO HAVE TO take what we are given. Rather we like it or not. Thank God I have other hobbies.
I am extremely tired today as I surfed some of the biggest waves I have ever surfed on the south shore today. I almost broke my board a few times and I could not even go to the “best” spots because there were too many people and sadly I am not good enough to get in a line-up full of semi-pros to pros and then actually get waves. Instead I will have to enjoy my time on “lesser exposed” breaks and instead watch the best of the best rip it up.
Notes For Monday’s Stock Market Session
April 27, 2008 | Leave a Comment
-The IBD 100 is up 228.5% compared to SP 500’s 49.5% since 4/18/08
-IBD 85-85 and IBD 100 were down for the week (-.9% compared to Nassy .8%) but they were up over 2.5% on Friday compared to Nassy down .2%.
-This appears to be rotation of some sorts out of commodities into some new sectors
-Internet-Network Solutions up 9% this week
-Computer Software-Design up 5% this week
-These industries however are being led by the usual laggards BIDU and AAPL.
-Strongest Semi stocks: PMCS MCRL VLTR FSLR CRUS JASO SMTX POWI IVAC JST LSCC SMTC AXYS
-Impressive food stocks: FDP SDA — I am long both
-Nasdaq has an A for acc/dis NYSE B SP 500 B+ IBD 85-85 C+
I Started Talking About The Parabolic Runs In Chemical-Fertilizer Stocks A Week Ago And Today They Confirmed The Analysis; Is Their A Possible Rotation Into Technology Stocks?
April 24, 2008 | Leave a Comment
What a weird session! Finally, something interesting to talk about. And by interesting I mean that all the chemical-fertilizer stocks that I have been listing as “parabolic charts” in my forums the past week have finally sold off on very heavy volume. I am not sure if this is the ultimate top but we are very blessed to have an excellent futures trader amongst are midst and he has been screaming to short the commodities the pat few days. Now, while those selloff, finally, the stocks start to catch up. I hope this is the top to the commodities, but something tells me this will probably be just another short term adjustment.
Either way, it really doesn’t matter to me. I have taken my 400% and 500% gain from TNH and MOS back in 2006-2007 a long time ago and I am just waiting for these things to top so that I may try to take a piece of the pie back when they head back to earth where all stocks belong after a climax run.
Nasdaq Leads The Way Higher On Slightly Higher Volume As Semiconductor Stocks Account For Much Of The Gains; AAPL Disappoints
April 24, 2008 | Leave a Comment
It was another typical day that we have seen recently where not a lot gets accomplished and we pretty much just give back whatever happened the day before in the opposite direction. Still, I do believe, that today’s gains coming with higher volume is a positive overall. And if you look at your Nasdaq daily chart, you will see that pattern show up a lot the past month (lower volume selling, higher volume rally). That is the reason the Nasdaq carries an ACC/DIS rating of A- which makes it the most heavily accumulated index out there.
Today, however, that was minor compared to the SOX’s 4% powerful rally that saw shares of BRCM leap today on huge volume. I am starting to believe that what I COULD be seeing is a rotation from commodity stocks (which don’t appear to be done yet at all) into technology stocks. That can best be viewed by taking a look at your daily SOX chart for 2008. As you can see we have a ton of excellent price action to go along with all that support right in the 340 to 350 zone. The move in the SOX today gets it ever closer to being able to take back and claim its 200 DMA. Tech stocks led in 9900 and big-cap tech did well in 2003 also. However, since then it has been all commodities but if the parabolic runs I am seeing in POT MOS AGU FEED etc…I will continue to monitor those stocks for a blowoff top and watch Semi/Tech stocks for more breakouts or possible bottoms.
I HATE calling bottoms while a stock market is falling and I hate saying a stock has bottomed until after the fact it looks bottomed. When I look at the stocks in the Semi index, I can honestly say, that I am starting to get that “feel-good” feeling in my body where I think that we are just moments away from launching a big rally. However, anything can happen in this market and I promise you that INDEED ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN. EVEN THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE this market is going to resolve itself to the upside via some tech stocks trying to regain a strong uptrend. But once again, though I feel good and it appears eventually the SOX can take off and run, anything can happen and that is why I am prepared for anything and everything. Up, down, sideways, or a halt. I have my game plan ready to go!!
Do You Have That Feeling That We Might Not Have Put In The Ultimate Bottom?
April 22, 2008 | 1 Comment
Today was not that bad, overall, minus a few stocks that were completely earnings related. However, the fact that volume did in fact pick up is still none-the-less technically a distribution day. Still with volume well below the 50 day volume average, it sure is hard to get too bearish over a day like this. But at the exact same time, it sure is hard to get really bullish here when I see so many potential nice charts start to setup only to not make it.
The higher volume selling that hit the market today was the second below-average volume distribution day in a couple of weeks. While long-term this is nothing serious, on the short-term a few more days of this could put a monkey-wrench into this rally. Right now, as it stands, though, I would not be too worried about these two days since the put/call raises to such high levels on these kind of days. If the crowd was getting more complacent, I might be a little worried that the selling might pick up.
But the fact volume remains low and the fact that almost zero stocks have shown up the past two weeks as strong short candidates is a clear tell that this isn’t a market you necessarily want to be short…or long really.
Another Quiet Day Of Consolidating The Gains; Lower Volume After A Day Of Solid Gains Is What I Like To See!
April 21, 2008 | Leave a Comment
It was another great day overall for those that are long the stocks we are long (well at least until AH when one got a gnarly ride) as the market took its time drifting around today before a strong close that saw the market basically end where it started. That is except for the SP 600 which fell .7% and the IBD 100, which is loaded full of leading stocks with great fundamentals and strong price action, which rose 1.2%. The 1.2% gain by leading stocks is very impressive during a day where the indexes basically closed flat to slightly lower. This is yet another clear sing that despite the lack of any volume out there, shorting a dull market is not a very smart idea.
Some of the bullish data points on today’s session includes the new highs which once again beat the new lows. This time it was 164 to 97. Not a killing but still good enough. As long as I continue to see new highs beating new lows on this list I will continue to enjoy the uptrend even if it continues on with small volume. The put/call also rose today to .81 from .77, despite the IBD 100’s 1.2% rally. This has to be taken as a slightly bullish development considering that more people bought puts (meaning they became more bearish) despite the market rallying. This is probably because those put buyers were more focused on the SP 500 and SP 600. Too bad they were, some stocks that we are long like WSCI are showing why that is such a bad idea
Priorities In Life:
April 21, 2008 | Leave a Comment
1. Family
2. Surfing
3. Surfing
4. Surfing
5. Going long stocks breaking out to new highs, bouncing off the 50 DMA, from a nice five weeks to seven weeks flat base, cup with handle pattern, double bottom pattern, or saucer pattern with max green BOP the past three to six months, with huge accumulation on the uptrends and extremely quiet volume on the breakouts, when the general market is in an overall uptrend.
6. Surfing
7. Surfing
8. Surfing
9. Surfing
10. Surfing
I hope you all understand how important making money is to me. I would rather be surfing. God bless the United States of America for giving me this wonderful life where if I wanted to I only have to work 2 hours a day 5 days a week 10 hours a week, surf the rest of the time, and make a TON of money. Capitalism is the greatest thing ever!! God bless Capitalism as it is THE ONLY way to take someone who was DIRT POOR like me and help them become wealthy in heart, mind, spirit, and body. This is why I love the stock market and trading stocks but do not love money. Money can never create this kind of happiness. It has to come from something deeper within and around you.
Surfing is my money! 
Not Only Have Our Longs Outperformed The Overall Market The Past Month I Can Now See A Lot More Bases Being Built
April 19, 2008 | Leave a Comment
This means that if these bases all complete their right side, we are going to have a powerful market rally with or without volume. I am stunned by how many nice charts there are now AFTER JUST ONE bullish week where leading stocks outperformed the rest. The only bad news is besides the stock that we went heavily long two days ago that is now up 21.5%, there is nothing out there that has that perfect tight bullish price action where the price is bouncing off the 50 DMA and breaking out in a base longer than three weeks, that comes with extremely huge volume on the up days and extremely quiet volume on the pullbacks, and has a lot of green BOP showing all over the chart with max green BOP at least the last five days. There are a TON of high quality CANSLIM stocks that are setting up and breaking out of great bases, however, and when I can’t find my PERFECT charts, there is only one type of stocks to load up in. That is the CANSLIM quality. That is why MTL and TITN are very large positions yet neither one look like any of my ‘past big winners.’
I asked O’Neil which he would pick: a perfect chart in a stock with 70 EPS and 95 RS or a well-formed chat that is a bit wild, has some distribution, and other flaws but had a 99 EPS and 80 RS. His response was that you go with the stock with extremely strong fundamentals yet flawed chart. That is why TITN was a large buy yet has nothing but red BOP for the month of April.
